In my opinion Freiburg have really good chances to make at least one point in today’s match up.

I see big difference between both teams in terms of quality, potential and ambitions. Freiburg playing in European Cups, currently they are in top6 of Bundesliga table and they have to win such matches against lower rank opponents if they wants to play in European Cups next year. On the other hand Heidenheim is league newcomer, plays in Bundesliga for the first time in their history and for them main goal is to avoid relegation at the end of the season.

Heidenheim situation in league table is safe as they are 7 points above relegation zone after 15 rounds, but their results looks better than really should. They scored 22 goals so far, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 18.5. Only two teams in whole Bundesliga have less shots on target per game than Heidenheim. On the other hand their defensive formation is very unstable. They conceded already 30 goals (2 per game) and according to the expected goals conceded model this is the worst defensive formation in Bundesliga.

For sure Freiburg have more stability and consistency at the back. Only Bayern (7) kept more clean sheets in current campaign than Freiburg (6). Team is full of confidence at the moment. They won 4 of last 5 matches in all competitions, all of them ‘to nil’. At the weekend Freiburg produced very quality performance in attack when they won 2:0 at home against Koln (3.15 expected goals scored). They should have big advantage over Heidenheim at both ends of the pitch.

In current season Freiburg lost 5 of 15 Bundesliga matches, but all of them against teams currently ranked inside top5 of the table (Dortmund, Bayern, Leverkusen, Stuttgart and RBL). Double chance on Freiburg is must play bet for me today.

在我看来弗赖堡有很好的机会在今天的比赛中至少得一分。

我看到了两支球队在质量、潜力和雄心方面的巨大差异。弗赖堡正在参加欧洲杯，目前他们在德甲排名前6，如果他们想参加明年的欧洲杯，他们必须在这样的比赛中战胜排名较低的对手。另一方面，海登海姆是联赛新人，他们历史上第一次参加德甲联赛，对他们来说，主要目标是在赛季结束时保级。

海登海姆在联赛积分榜上的位置是安全的，因为他们在15轮之后比降级区高出7分，但他们的成绩看起来比实际情况要好。到目前为止，他们已经进了22球，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该进18.5球。整个德甲只有两支球队的场均射正次数比海登海姆少。另一方面，他们的防守阵型很不稳定。他们已经丢了30个球(场均2个)，根据预期丢球模型，这是德甲最差的防守阵型。

可以肯定的是，弗赖堡的后防线更加稳定和稳定。只有拜仁(7场)在本赛季保持了比弗莱堡(6场)更多的零封。球队现在充满了信心。他们在最近5场比赛中赢了4场，所有比赛都是“零比零”。周末弗赖堡在主场2:0战胜科隆(预期进球数3.15)，在进攻端表现非常出色。他们在攻防两端对海登海姆应该有很大的优势。

在本赛季的15场德甲比赛中，弗赖堡输掉了5场，但对手都是目前排名前5位的球队(多特蒙德、拜仁、勒沃库森、斯图加特和RBL)。弗赖堡的双倍机会是我今天必须下的赌注。