Atletico Madrid VS Getafe

Atletico Madrid welcome Getafe for this Spanish LaLiga clash at Metropolitano Stadium very early Wednesday morning Beijing time. This league is the second-best in the world. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of pretty good level by the LaLiga standards here. Atletico Madrid are having a strong season so far! Indeed, the hosts currently occupy the fifth place in the league table. They also won Group E in the UEFA Champions League. They took an impressive 14 points. They took four wins and two draws in six games. Moreover, they netted the ball an awesome 17 times! In LaLiga they have grabbed a total of 34 points. They are only one point behind one of the two "giants" of Spanish football – Barcelona. In terms of expected points (xPTS) they have been marginally lucky. Atletico are in 3rd place in my power rating. This rating reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible starting lineup. They are, in my expert opinion, only marginally worse than Real Madrid and Barcelona. Girona currently top the standings but they have been massively lucky in terms of xPTS and are not in the top-6 in terms of pure class..

The hosts have netted the ball a respectable 32 times in this league so far. However, their number of expected goals (xG) is even a bit bigger. Especially in this area of the game they have a substantial edge over the visitors! Indeed, Getafe have scored only 20 goals in LaLiga so far. This is indeed a low number! Their number of xG is marginally higher though. Even so, their offense lacks individual skill, speed, creativity to dream of a top-10 finish at the end of the season. In terms of defensive quality the difference between the teams is unarguably somewhat smaller than in terms of offensive quality. Indeed, the Getafe defence has been more solid than I would have expected this season.. Their defenders have made less silly defensive mistakes than most I estimated in my preseason analysis. Their defensive structure has also been pretty good.. Indeed, they defend pretty well as a team – despite not having the best defenders in terms of individual skill level. However, against Atletico's world-class strikers they are facing a gigantic challenge! Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 25.12. The hosts have conceded only 16 goals. They can,however, improve significantly in all areas of the game! Even winning the championship would not be a total shock to me. Yes, Getafe have won three of their last four games. However, they have had a lot of luck in many of these games – and have not faced any strong teams recently. For example in their last game they beat a struggling Sevilla 3-0 away from home but did not generate much more than the hosts in xG. Getafe have become too hot on the betting market.. They are in 8th place but are only in the 14th place in my power rating. They have taken 25 points but their number of xPTS is only 20.35. The hosts are very big favourites here – in front of extremely enthusiastic home fans. Odds of around 1.50 on the hosts to the hosts to take all three points are widely available with the biggest bookies. "Tico" have an over 70% chance of winning this match.

马德里竞技VS赫塔菲

北京时间周三凌晨，马德里竞技将在大都会体育场欢迎赫塔菲参加西甲联赛。这个联赛是世界上第二好的。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以西甲标准衡量的相当高水平的比赛。到目前为止，马德里竞技正在经历一个强大的赛季!事实上，东道主目前在积分榜上排名第五。他们还赢得了欧洲冠军联赛E组的冠军。他们得了14分。他们在六场比赛中取得了四胜两平。此外，他们有17次进球!在西甲联赛中，他们总共拿到了34分。他们只落后西班牙足球两大“巨人”之一的巴塞罗那一分。在期望值(xPTS)方面，他们还算幸运。马竞在我的力量评级中排名第三。这个排名反映了球队拥有最佳首发阵容的纯粹等级。在我看来，他们只比皇马和巴萨差一点点。赫罗纳目前在积分榜上排名第一，但他们在xPTS方面非常幸运，在纯粹的等级方面并没有进入前6名。

到目前为止，东道主在这个联赛中已经有32次进球了。然而，他们的预期目标数量(xG)甚至更大一些。特别是在比赛的这方面，他们比客队有很大的优势!事实上，赫塔菲到目前为止在西甲只进了20个球。这确实是一个很低的数字!不过，他们的xG数量略高。即便如此，他们的进攻缺乏个人技术、速度和创造力，无法在赛季结束时梦想进入前十。在防守质量方面，两队之间的差距无疑要小于进攻质量。确实，赫塔菲的防守比我本赛季预期的要稳固得多。他们的防守犯的愚蠢的防守错误比我在季前赛分析中估计的要少。他们的防守结构也相当不错。事实上，他们作为一个团队防守得很好——尽管就个人技术水平而言，他们的防守不是最好的。然而，面对马竞的世界级前锋，他们面临着巨大的挑战!他们的预期进球数(xGA)是25.12。东道主只丢了16个球。然而，他们可以在游戏的所有领域显著提高!即使赢得冠军对我来说也不会是一个完全的震惊。是的，赫塔菲在最近四场比赛中赢了三场。然而，他们在很多比赛中运气都很好，而且最近没有遇到任何强队。例如，在上一场比赛中，他们客场3-0击败了苦苦挣扎的塞维利亚，但在上一场比赛中，他们的进球并不比东道主多多少。赫塔菲在博彩市场上变得太热门了。他们排在第8位，但在我的能量评级中只排在第14位。他们拿到了25分，但是他们的得分只有20.35分。在热情的主场球迷面前，东道主是最受欢迎的球队。在最大的博彩公司中，主队获得全部三分的赔率约为1.50。Tico有超过70%的机会赢得这场比赛。