Real Madrid VS Villarreal

Real Madrid welcome Villarreal for this Spanish LaLiga round 17 battle at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu early Monday morning Beijing time. This is the second-best league in the world. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of high level by the LaLiga standards. Most importantly, we have yet another very good betting opportunity to make even more profit here! We have won a whopping seven picks in a row and 10/11 last picks at the time of posting. In LaLiga recent results have also been very strong! Real Madrid currently occupy the second place in the standings, behind the hugely surprising team, Girona(!). The hosts have a pretty strong 39 points in their pocket. However, I want to highlight that they have been one of the luckiest teams in the top-3 leagues so far this season! Their number of expected points (xPTS) is "only" 28.98. They have scored 34 goals and have conceded only 10 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is massively higher – 21.23! Their defence does have vulnerabilities - especially defending against fast counter attacks is not their one of their strengths. Villarreal, on the other hand, are good at these! They will surely defend hard perhaps with almost 11 men if needed and wait for Real's mistakes.. The visitors would surely be happy even with a draw. The hosts are currently in 2nd  place in my power rating, Barcelona are in first place – despite not that great recent form.. This rating reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible starting eleven. They are missing some very important players here. Camavinga, Carvajal, Courtois (goalkeeper), Guler, Militao and Vinicius Junior are out. Key player Aurelien Tchouameni is back in the squad but is not expected to play the full 90 minutes - if at all.. Moreover, he is surely far from his best level.. The visitors will have to manage without Comesana, Foyth, Pino and D. Suerez. Mandi is questionable. In their last game Real beat a hugely struggling team from Germany, Union Berlin, away from home 3-2 through D. Ceballo's late goal. Real were very clear favourites in this UEFA Champions League clash. They deserved to win but were not very impressive.. Before this they faced Real Betis away from home and it was a 1-1 draw as big favourites – priced around 1.70 to win according to the bookies. Betis generated 1.23 in expected goals (xG) - Real managed only 0.88. Betis also recorded more goal attempts (14-12), shots on goal (6-2) and corner kicks (8-6). I was disappointed with Real's performance as a whole..

Villarreal, on the other hand, are only in the 14th place in the league table. They are in 8th place in my power rating and can improve significantly in all areas of the game! Let's not forget that last season they ended up in 5th place! They have managed to grab 16 points but their number of xPTS is much bigger – 21.03. They have scored a fine 22 goals and their number of xG is 26.06. Their defence has been a big disappointment for me and they have allowed 29 goals. However, they have improved significantly in this area of the game recently. Furthermore, they have lost only one of their last seven games – winning 4/7! In their last game they beat Rennes away from home 3-2 in an UEFA Europa League group stage battle. It was a terrific performance despite allowing two goals. They generated 2.01 in xG - Rennes's number was only 0.45. They also recorded more goal attempts – 13-10. Villarreal won the group with 13 points to their account. The win in France on Thursday (local time) is surely a big boost to them ahead of this massive challenge.. Before this they were extremely unlucky to lose to a strong team, Real Sociedad, at home as clear underdogs on the betting market! Indeed, Villarreal generated 2.21 in xG – the visitors' number was only 1.19. Villarreal also recorded many more goal attempts (20-16), corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks – 114-93! This defeat probably affects the odds too heavily here.. Real are, of course, very clear favourites here but with the expected lineups I see them having an "only" 68% chance of sending the visitors home empty-handed. In terms of defensive quality they have a clear edge over the visitors. Even so, the bookies, once again, hugely overvalue Real here - offering them odds of only around 1.25 to win.. We will take the Villarreal +1.5 goals handicap option with a 52% chance of winning – once again! Odds of around 2.25-2.30 are widely available at the time of posting this analysis Sunday morning Beijing time. However, I would not be at all surprised to see the odds on the visitors drop before the kick off.. Indeed, smart money is expected to pile up on them!

皇家马德里VS比利亚雷亚尔

北京时间周一凌晨，皇马将在伯纳姆乌球场迎来比利亚雷亚尔的西甲第17轮激战。这是世界上第二好的联赛。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以西甲标准衡量的高水平比赛。最重要的是，我们还有另一个非常好的投注机会，可以在这里赚取更多的利润!我们已经连续赢得了7次选秀权，截止发稿时，我们已经赢得了10/11次选秀权。最近在西甲的成绩也非常强劲!皇家马德里目前在积分榜上排名第二，排在令人惊讶的球队赫罗纳之后。东道主已经拿到了相当可观的39分。然而，我想强调的是，他们是本赛季到目前为止前三名联赛中最幸运的球队之一!他们的期望值(xPTS)“只有”28.98。他们进了34个球，只丢了10个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)要高得多——21.23个!他们的防守确实有弱点——尤其是在面对快速反击时的防守并不是他们的强项。另一方面，比利亚雷亚尔很擅长这些!如果需要的话，他们肯定会用11人防守，等待皇马的失误。即使平局，客队也一定会很高兴。东道主目前在我的力量评分中排名第二，巴塞罗那排名第一——尽管最近的状态不太好。这个排名反映了球队的纯粹等级，有最好的首发11人。他们缺少了一些非常重要的球员。卡马文加、卡瓦哈尔、库尔图瓦(门将)、古勒、米利陶奥和小维尼修斯缺阵。关键球员奥雷连·楚亚梅尼已经回归，但是如果能打满90分钟的话，预计也打不满。而且，他肯定远没有达到他的最佳水平。游客们将不得不在没有科梅萨纳、福伊斯、皮诺和D.苏雷兹的情况下应付。曼迪值得怀疑。在上一场比赛中，皇马凭借塞巴罗最后时刻的进球，在客场3-2击败了处境艰难的德国球队柏林联盟(Union Berlin)。皇马在这场欧冠比赛中是非常明显的热门。他们理应获胜，但表现不是很出色。在此之前，他们在客场面对皇家贝蒂斯，双方以1比1战平，被认为是夺冠热门——根据博彩公司的预测，胜率在1.70左右。贝蒂斯的预期进球数为1.23，皇马仅为0.88。贝蒂斯的进球次数(14胜12负)、射正(6胜2负)、角球(8胜6负)也更多。我对皇马的整体表现感到失望。

另一方面，比利亚雷亚尔在积分榜上只排在第14位。他们在我的能量评级中排名第8位，并且在游戏的所有领域都可以显著提高!别忘了上个赛季他们只排在第五!他们拿到了16分，但是他们的得分要多得多——21.03分。他们已经进了22个球，他们的xG数是26.06。他们的防守让我很失望，他们丢了29个球。然而，他们最近在这方面有了很大的进步。此外，他们最近7场比赛只输了1场，4胜7负!在欧联杯小组赛的最后一场比赛中，他们客场3-2击败了雷恩。尽管丢了两个球，但这是一场精彩的表演。他们在xG产生了2.01，雷恩的数字只有0.45。他们的进球次数也更多——13-10次。比利亚雷亚尔以13分的成绩获得小组第一。4日(当地时间)在法国的胜利无疑是对他们的巨大鼓舞。在此之前，他们非常不幸地在主场输给了一支强大的球队——皇家社会，在博彩市场上，他们显然处于劣势!事实上，比利亚雷亚尔在2009年创造了2.21个进球，而客流量只有1.19个。比利亚雷亚尔也有更多的进球尝试(20胜16负)、角球、进攻和危险进攻——114胜93负!这次失败可能会严重影响这里的胜算。当然，皇马显然是最受欢迎的球队，但在我预期的阵容中，我认为他们“只有”68%的机会让客队空手而归。就防守质量而言，他们明显胜过客队。即便如此，博彩公司又一次高估了皇马的价值——给他们的赔率只有1.25左右。我们将采取比利亚雷亚尔+1.5个进球障碍的选择，有52%的机会获胜-再一次!在北京时间周日上午发布这篇分析时，赔率在2.25-2.30左右的概率普遍存在。然而，如果在开球前看到客队的赔率下降，我一点也不会感到惊讶。事实上，聪明的钱预计会堆积在他们身上!