Lille VS Paris Saint Germain (PSG)

Lille welcome PSG for this French Ligue 1 round 16 battle at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Villeneuve d'Ascq early Monday morning Beijing time. This is the 5th-best league on the planet. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of very high level by the Ligue 1. Most importantly, we have yet another very interesting betting opportunity to make even more profit here! We have won a whopping seven picks in a row and 11/12 last picks. I will be posting four more picks in the big leagues soon! Lille currently occupy the 4th place in the standings with a respectable 27 points to their account. They have netted the ball 19 times in this league so far. This is undoubtedly a slight disappointment in my expert opinion but they can improve – perhaps even significantly – in this area of the game. Indeed, they have many talented offensive players in the squad. However, I want to highlight that their number of expected goals (xG) is significantly higher – 26.02 to be precise. Their defence has been extremely solid this season and it is very hard to write anything really negative about their defence! They have conceded only 11 goals – this is the second-lowest number in Ligue 1. Lille's defensive structure is awesome and silly individual mistakes are very rare. Moreover, the midfielders – and even the strikers – if needed – actively to part in defending. This happens especially when they are protecting a lead late into the second half. I expect Lille to play rather cautious football here against a very dangerous opponent.. Consequently, I see this match as more low-scoring than the bookies do. Based on my in-depth, strongly data-based analysis the probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 50%.

PSG are the reigning champions of Ligue 1. They are the best team in this league, no doubt about that. They currently top the standings with 36 points in their pocket. Their number of xPTS is "only" 31.23. They have big offensive power and have scored 38 goals but their number of xG is "just" 33.01. They have allowed more goals than Lille -12 to be precise. PSG's number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 18.01 and their defence is vulnerable to fast counter attacks.. Lille surely knows this and will try to take advantage of this. The main rationale behind this pick is that PSG are not as dominant in this league as the bookies and many recreational bettors believe.. On paper they look superior but on the pitch the gap to 3-4 other strong teams is not that substantial. Let's not forget that last season they won the championship by a margin of only one point – Lens finished in second place. Yes, they have big players in the team but losing both Messi and Neymar after last season is still a big challenge to them. Furthermore, I do not fully trust their coach – L. Enrique is an overrated guy and is not a world-class manager either in terms of tactical abilities or as a leader.. Yes, they are the favourites here but not that clear after all. Let's not forget that Lille have not lost any of their last 14 games! We will take that +0.5 goals handicap option with a 56% chance of winning - once again! Odds of around 2.05 are widely available online at the time of posting this preview. PSG failed to impress me in the UEFA Champions League – despite qualifying for the Playoffs, three points behind Dortmund. They won only two of the six games in the group stage and their score difference (9:8) was not great.. According to the bookies they were very clear favourites to win the group.. They had many imbalances in their game – and often took too big offensive risks and did not defend in a structured way. Moreover, sometimes some of their players – especially midfielders - even looked lazy at defending.. The same has been true in many games during the past 3-4 seasons. Maybe this is why they have not met the expectations in the Champions League, despite reaching the final back in 2020 – losing to Bayern Munich. Had Newcastle beaten Milan in the last round of play on Wednesday – PSG would have finished in 3rd place.. I'm not saying that the PSG players would not be motivated here but surely the game against Dortmund was surely the biggest game for PSG this week and their main mental focus was surely in that game. It was a 1-1 draw and could easily have gone either way. PSG did generate more in xG but Dortmund recorded more shots on goal. Lille, on the other hand, crushed Klaksvik 3-0 at home in their last game. It was an UEFA Europa Conference League game. Lille generated a whopping 4.34 in xG in this match! They were clear favourites in this game though.. The hosts have won four of their last five games and have looked confident on the pitch lately. I believe that Lille respect PSG - as they should, of course – but are not afraid of the "stars from Paris" here!

里尔VS巴黎圣日耳曼(PSG)

北京时间周一凌晨，里尔欢迎巴黎圣日耳曼在维伦纽夫的皮埃尔-莫罗伊球场进行法甲16强之战。这是世界上排名第五的联盟。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场非常高水平的法甲比赛。最重要的是，我们还有另一个非常有趣的投注机会，可以在这里赚取更多的利润!我们已经连续赢得了7次选秀权和11次选秀权。我很快就会在大联盟中发布另外四个选秀权!里尔目前在积分榜上排名第四，积分榜上有27分。到目前为止，他们在这个联赛中已经取得了19次进球。毫无疑问，这在我的专家看来有点令人失望，但他们可以在这方面有所提高，甚至可能是显著的。的确，他们有很多有天赋的进攻球员。然而，我想强调的是，他们的预期目标数量(xG)要高得多——准确地说是26.02。本赛季他们的防守非常稳固，很难写出任何关于他们防守的负面评论!他们只丢了11个球，这是法甲第二低的数字。里尔的防守结构非常棒，愚蠢的个人失误非常罕见。此外，中场球员——甚至前锋——如果需要的话——也会积极参与防守。这种情况尤其发生在他们在下半场后期保护领先优势的时候。我希望里尔在面对一个非常危险的对手时踢得相当谨慎。因此，我认为这场比赛比博彩公司认为的更低。根据我深入的数据分析，总进球数少于2.5个的概率是50%。

巴黎圣日耳曼是法甲卫冕冠军。他们是联盟中最好的球队，这是毫无疑问的。他们目前以36分的积分排名第一。他们的xPTS数量“只有”31.23个。他们拥有强大的进攻力量，已经进了38个球，但他们的xG数“只有”33.01个。准确地说，他们丢的球比里尔12的多。巴黎圣日耳曼的预期失球数(xGA)是18.01，他们的防守很容易受到快速反击的攻击。里尔当然知道这一点，并将努力利用这一点。这个选择背后的主要理由是，巴黎圣日耳曼在联赛中并不像博彩公司和许多娱乐投注者所认为的那样占据统治地位。纸面上他们看起来更强，但在球场上与其他3-4支强队的差距并不是那么大。让我们不要忘记上个赛季他们只以1分的优势赢得了总冠军，而蓝斯只获得了第二名。是的，他们有大牌球员，但在上赛季失去梅西和内马尔对他们来说仍然是一个巨大的挑战。此外，我不完全信任他们的教练——L.恩里克是一个被高估的家伙，无论是在战术能力还是作为一个领导者方面，他都不是一个世界级的经理。是的，他们在这里是最受欢迎的，但毕竟不是那么明确。别忘了，里尔在过去的14场比赛中没有输过一场!我们将选择+0.5个进球的障碍选项，有56%的机会获胜——再一次!在发布这个预览的时候，大约2.05的赔率在网上广泛可用。巴黎圣日耳曼未能在欧冠赛场上给我留下深刻的印象——尽管他们以落后多特蒙德3分的成绩进入了季后赛。他们在小组赛的六场比赛中只赢了两场，他们的比分差距(9:8)也不是很大。根据博彩公司的说法，他们很有可能赢得小组头名。他们在比赛中有很多不平衡的地方——经常冒着太大的进攻风险，没有以一种结构化的方式防守。此外，有时他们的一些球员——尤其是中场球员——甚至在防守上看起来很懒。在过去3-4个赛季的很多比赛中也是如此。也许这就是为什么他们在冠军杯上没有达到人们的期望，尽管他们在2020年进入了决赛——输给了拜仁慕尼黑。如果纽卡在周三的最后一轮比赛中击败米兰，那么巴黎圣日耳曼将获得第三名。我并不是说巴黎圣日耳曼球员在这里没有动力，但对阵多特蒙德的比赛肯定是巴黎圣日耳曼本周最重要的比赛，他们的主要注意力肯定集中在那场比赛上。这场比赛是1比1的平局，两种结果都有可能发生。巴黎圣日耳曼在上个赛季确实创造了更多的机会，但多特蒙德的射门次数更多。另一方面，里尔在上一场比赛中主场3-0击败了克拉克斯维克。这是一场欧联杯比赛。里尔在这场比赛中创造了高达4.34的进球!不过他们显然是这场比赛的大热门。东道主在最近五场比赛中赢了四场，在球场上看起来很自信