In my opinion Brentford have excellent chances to make at least one point in this game.

Brentford have huge mental advantage before this game because of their superb record against today's opponents. Brentford didn't lost in 10 of last 11 matches against Aston Villa. 5 home matches without a loss.

Aston Villa is on third place, 8 spots above Brentford, but if You look deeper Brentford plays better in current season! According to the expected goals scored Brentford should score 29.7 (Aston Villa 29.5). According to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 20.8 (Aston Villa 22.5).

Brentford lost 4 of last 5 matches, but in all losses they played close matches: against Liverpool they had 1.68 expected goals scored, Liverpool 1.71. / against Arsenal they had 1.19 expected goals scored, Arsenal 1.65 / against Brighton they had 1.52 expected goals scored, Brighton 1.57 / against Sheffield they had 0.66 expected goals scored, Sheffield 0.81. As You can see, with little bit more luck Brentford would make much better results. In 3 of those 4 losses they played on the road. Now Brentford coming back to home where they are extremely hard nut to crack. Brentford didn't lost in 23 of last 27 Premier League matches front of home crowd. No new absences so their line up should look exactly the same like in previous round.

Aston Villa today have two new absences in comparison to the last round line up. They are without two key players - best defender in current season (according to the ratings) Digne and the best player in whole team (according to the ratings) Luiz. It's huge blow and should have very bad impact on their performance. Freshness is also not on guests side as they played in Conference League at Thursday and we saw couple first team players on the pitch in that game. Aston Villa plays excellent front of home crowd, but I really don't trust them on the road. In previous season they failed to win in 13 of 19 away Premier League matches. In current season they failed to win in 5 of 8 away league matches. In Conference league they failed to win on the road against Legia and Zrinjski.

On those circumstances I see huge value on home side.

在我看来，布伦特福德有很好的机会在这场比赛中至少得一分。

布伦特福德在这场比赛前有着巨大的心理优势，因为他们在对阵今天的对手时有着出色的战绩。布伦特福德在最近11场对阵阿斯顿维拉的比赛中10场未输，5场主场未输。

阿斯顿维拉排在第三位，比布伦特福德高8个名次，但是如果你看得更深一点，布伦特福德本赛季踢得更好!按照预期进球数，布伦特福德应该进29.7球(阿斯顿维拉29.5球)。根据预期失球模型，他们应该失球20.8个(阿斯顿维拉22.5个)。

布伦特福德在最近5场比赛中输了4场，但在所有输球中，他们都是势均力敌的对手:对阵利物浦，他们的预期进球数是1.68，利物浦是1.71。对阵阿森纳，他们的预期进球数为1.19，阿森纳为1.65;对阵布莱顿，他们的预期进球数为1.52，布莱顿为1.57;对阵谢菲尔德，他们的预期进球数为0.66，谢菲尔德为0.81。如你所见，如果运气再好一点，布伦特福德会取得更好的成绩。在这4场失利中，他们有3场是客场比赛。现在布伦特福德回到了家乡，在那里他们非常难对付。布伦特福德在过去的27场英超比赛中有23场没有在主场输球。没有新的缺阵，所以他们的阵容应该和上一轮完全一样。

与上一轮的阵容相比，阿斯顿维拉今天又有两名球员缺席。他们缺少两名关键球员——本赛季最佳防守球员(根据评分)迪涅和全队最佳球员(根据评分)路易斯。这是一个巨大的打击，应该会对他们的表现产生非常糟糕的影响。客队的新鲜度也不高，因为他们周四在东部联赛中出场，我们在那场比赛中看到了几名一线队球员。阿斯顿维拉在主场踢得很好，但我真的不相信他们在客场的表现。在上个赛季，他们在英超19场客场比赛中有13场未能获胜。本赛季，他们在8场客场比赛中有5场没有获胜。在西部联赛中，他们没能在客场战胜莱吉亚和兹林斯基。

在这种情况下，我看到了主队的巨大价值。