In my opinion Reims have bigger chances to avoid loss in this game than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

Both teams are in top8 after 15 rounds with exactly the same amount of points. According to the expected goals scored model Lens is better, but Reims produced more solid numbers in expected goals conceded table. Where I see advantage for Reims in this match up?

1. Reims today will play with very strong line up and we will see on the pitch their top players like Ito, Matusiwa, best scorer Teuma or best assistant Daramy. On the other hand Lens have serious squad problems. Today they are without best scorer Machado, best assistant Sotoca and best player (according to the ratings) Medina. It's huge blow and should have very bad impact on their performance.

2. Reims have advantage in fitness department. They played last match 6 days ago, Lens played 4 days ago in Champions League. For sure freshness is not on their side.

3. Despite 10 points in last 4 matches, for me Lens currently not playing on the higher level than Reims. Lens won against Marseille, but that's wasn't fully deserved, they had lower expected goals scored number (1.08 vs 1.13), they won against Clermont, but that was tight (2.28 vs 1.91). They won against Lyon, but that wasn't deserved result (2.10 vs 2.73). In last round draw against Montpellier(1.15 vs 1.29). As You can see, they should make less points in those matches. Reims made 3 wins and 3 losses in last 6 matches, but even when they lost they looked solid: against PSG (2.27 vs 1.40), against Rennes (1.57 vs 1.93), in last round they lost 1:2 on away against strong Nice (2nd position), but they deserved for something more as they had higher expected goals scored number than opponents (1.33 vs 0.93).

In current form Reims is able to avoid loss against depleted Lens, no doubt about that.

在我看来，兰斯在这场比赛中避免输掉的机会比庄家给我们的赔率要大得多。

两队在15轮比赛后以完全相同的积分进入前8名。根据预期进球数得分模型，蓝斯更胜一筹，但兰斯在预期失球数表上产生的数据更为坚实。我认为兰斯在这场比赛中有什么优势?

1. 兰斯今天的阵容将非常强大，我们将在球场上看到他们的顶级球员，比如伊藤、马图西瓦、最佳射手特马和最佳助理达拉米。另一方面，伦斯队有严重的阵容问题。今天他们失去了最佳射手马查多，最佳助理索托卡和最佳球员(根据评分)梅迪纳。这是一个巨大的打击，应该会对他们的表现产生非常糟糕的影响。

2. 兰斯在健身方面有优势。他们6天前踢了上一场比赛，朗斯4天前踢了欧冠。当然新鲜感并不在他们这边。

3. 尽管最近4场比赛拿到了10分，但在我看来，朗斯目前的水平并不比兰斯高。朗斯赢了马赛，但这并不是完全应得的，他们的进球数低于预期(1.08比1.13)，他们赢了克莱蒙，但比分很紧(2.28比1.91)。他们赢了里昂，但那不是他们应得的结果(2.10比2.73)。上轮战平蒙彼利埃(1.15比1.29)。正如你所看到的，他们在这些比赛中应该得更少的分。兰斯在最近的6场比赛中取得了3胜3负，但即使是输球，他们看起来也很稳定:对阵巴黎圣日耳曼(2.27比1.40)，对阵雷恩(1.57比1.93)，上一轮他们客场1:2输给了强大的尼斯(排名第二)，但他们应该得到更多，因为他们比对手(1.33比0.93)有更高的预期进球数。

在目前的状态下，兰斯能够避免输给已经耗尽的蓝斯，这是毫无疑问的。