In my opinion Atletico have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

Atletico have really solid streak against Bilbao as they didn't lost against them in 19 of last 23 matches. Atletico have huge mental advantage - in previous season they won 1:0 in both matches against Bilbao in La Liga.

Atletico coming for this game in great mood. For the first time since 2016/2017 they won group in Champions League after home win against Lazio at Wednesday. Team shouldn't be too tired, coach Simeone rotated a bit and for example key striker Morata came from the bench same as team captain Koke, top player (according to the ratings) Griezmann played only 45 minutes.

I believe Atletico offensive firepower should make big difference today. Since middle of September Atletico played 17 matches in all competitions and failed to score only once (against Barcelona on away, 0.62 expected goals scored). Atletico scored 13 goals in 7 away matches in La Liga. They shouldn't have big problems with goalscoring today. At the start of the season Bilbao looked very solid at the back, but currently I don't see a lot consistency there. In last 7 La Liga matches Bilbao kept only one clean sheet (3 times they conceded more than one goal). At home they conceded 11 goals in 8 La Liga matches. Today they are without key defensive midfielder Vesga. That should have very bad impact on their performance at the back.

Is hard to imagine more than one goal for Bilbao in this game. In last round they played against Granada from relegation zone. Match finished with draw 1:1 and Bilbao doesn't looked too convincing (1.06 expected goals scored). Bilbao failed to score more than one goal in 21 of last 30 matches against Atletico. According to the expected goals scored model Atletico have the best defensive formation in La Liga.

On those circumstances double chance on away side looks like very safe bet to play.

在我看来，马竞在今天的比赛中有很好的机会至少得一分。

马竞在对阵毕尔巴鄂的比赛中取得了坚实的连胜，他们在过去的23场比赛中有19场没有输球。马竞拥有巨大的心理优势——在上个赛季，他们在西甲的两场比赛中都以1:0战胜毕尔巴鄂。

马竞队带着很好的心情来参加这场比赛。自2016/2017赛季以来，他们在周三主场战胜拉齐奥后首次在欧冠小组赛中获胜。球队应该不会太疲惫，教练西蒙尼轮换了一些，比如关键前锋莫拉塔和队长科克一样都是替补，顶级球员格列兹曼(根据评分)只打了45分钟。

我相信今天马竞的进攻火力会带来很大的不同。自9月中旬以来，马竞在各项赛事中打了17场比赛，只有一场没有进球(客场对阵巴塞罗那，预期进球数为0.62)。马竞在西甲的7场客场比赛中打进13球。他们今天在进球方面应该不会有大问题。在赛季开始的时候毕尔巴鄂的后防线看起来很稳固，但是现在我觉得他们的后防线不够稳定。在过去的7场西甲比赛中，毕尔巴鄂只有1场不失球(3次失球超过1球)。在主场，他们在8场西甲比赛中丢了11球。今天他们失去了关键的后腰维斯加。这将对他们后防线的表现产生非常糟糕的影响。

很难想象毕尔巴鄂在这场比赛中会多进一个球。上一轮他们与降级区的格拉纳达队交手。比赛以1:1结束，毕尔巴鄂看起来不太令人信服(预期进球数为1.06)。毕尔巴鄂在最近与马竞的30场比赛中有21场未能进1球以上。根据预期进球模型，马竞拥有西甲最好的防守阵型。

在这种情况下，客场的双倍机会看起来是非常安全的赌注。