Convincing reasons + big value
2023-12-10

Przem

外籍分析师

荷甲

12/10 19:15

已完赛

解读理由:

In my opinion Utrecht have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

Utrecht coming for this game without any fear. Guests have excellent streak at this stadium as they didn't lost in last 6 away matches against Eagles and recorded 4 wins in the process.

Utrecht had horrible start of the season, no doubt about that, but coach Ron Jans came to the club and team with him on the bench finally moving in good direction. Utrecht went unbeaten in last 6 consecutive matches. During that run they played against top8 teams like Sparta, Ajax, Twente or Alkmaar. Last round match against strong Alkmaar (2nd place) finished with draw 1:1, but Utrecht deserved for more: expected goals scored for Utrecht 2.15, for Alkmaar 1.24. Form is good, team is full of confidence and wants to go with momentum today.

Go Ahead Eagles in last round lost at home against Twente in derby game and that was fully deserved outcome: expected goals scored for Twente 2.54, for Eagles 1.27. Second match without a win and third consecutive match finishes with lower expected goals scored number than opponents. I really don't trust for Eagles because they had a lot of luck and their results looks better than really should. Eagles scored 25 goals, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 18.4. They conceded 20 goals, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 26.8. It's huge difference in both departments!

Eagles coach Hake in past worked 2 years as assistant of current Utrecht coach Jans. For sure for him not will be easy to beat old mentor.

On those circumstances I see excellent value for Utrecht to continue hot streak.



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

在我看来,乌得勒支有很好的机会在今天的比赛中至少得一分。

乌得勒支毫无畏惧地来参加这场比赛。客队在这个球场有很好的连胜记录,他们在最近6场客场对阵老鹰队的比赛中没有输过,并且取得了4场胜利。

毫无疑问,乌得勒支本赛季开局很糟糕,但教练罗恩·扬斯来到俱乐部,带着他坐在替补席上,终于朝着好的方向前进。乌得勒支在最近的6场比赛中保持不败。在那场比赛中,他们对阵的是排名前8的球队,比如斯巴达、阿贾克斯、特温特和阿尔克马尔。上一轮与强队阿尔克马尔(第二名)的比赛以1:1结束,但乌得勒支理应得到更多:乌得勒支的预期进球数为2.15,阿尔克马尔的预期进球数为1.24。状态很好,球队充满了信心,今天想要带着势头前进。

鹰队在上一轮德比中主场输给特温特,这是完全应得的结果:特温特的预期进球数为2.54,鹰队为1.27。第二场没有获胜的比赛和连续第三场比赛的预期进球数低于对手。我真的不相信老鹰队,因为他们运气很好,他们的结果看起来比应该的要好。老鹰队进了25球,但根据预期进球模型,他们应该进18.4球。他们丢了20个球,但根据预期丢球模型,他们应该丢26.8个球。这两个部门的差别很大!

老鹰队教练哈克过去曾担任现任乌得勒支教练詹斯的助理教练2年。对他来说,要打败他的老导师肯定不是件容易的事。

在这种情况下,我认为乌得勒支继续保持良好势头很有价值。

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