根据我的投注模型，如果主场获胜赔率大于1.75，那么毕尔巴鄂就值得投注。让我说说为什么，即使他们在过去几周内输掉了不止一场而是两次杯决赛之后可能产生精神崩溃！

动力

现在他们位列第九落后比利亚雷九分，后者在第七位占据了将俱乐部带入欧洲联赛的最后一席。如果在这里取得胜利，则差距为5分，还剩下5个回合，这是可以实现的。特别是当我们记得比利亚雷在本赛季的欧罗巴联赛至少还有半决赛，他们肯定会丢分。

状态

毕尔巴鄂的焦点自然是在4月的决赛中，他们输掉了比赛，而且在一定程度上解释了夺冠之前平庸的成绩，但更仔细地看4场平局，可以看出毕尔巴鄂是在所有比赛中都有更好的团队！

疲倦

是的，上周有两场比赛非常艰难，而且瓦拉杜利德从周末起还有一天可以在这里休息。

伤病

关键的中场球员穆尼亞因以及后卫卡帕和貝奇切受伤，中场球员文塞多尔被停赛，还有其他一些疑问。他们中的一些人已经错过了战胜马竞的胜利，并且知道马塞利诺教练倾向于大赛中加深轮换，这些并不是至关重要的坏消息。

精神

毕尔巴鄂对阵马竞似乎又活跃又新鲜，因此看来他们已经克服了杯赛的失望，正全力以赴参加欧洲比赛。新的开始！

另一方面，巴利亚多利德再次参加保级大战，在两场比赛都与主要对手交手后，他们度过了令人失望的一周。

巴利亚多利德有时可以表现出色，并且似乎可以挑战任何人，但是他们缺乏的是胜利精神，他们未能赢得完全胜利的比赛，例如上次对加迪斯的比赛。还必须说，他们是一支非常强大的主队，在旅行中，到目前为止，他们与格拉纳达和赫塔菲共取得了2场胜利。 xG数据会给他们更多的分数，但是显然他们是保级的一面，这主要归功于缺乏绝对的顶尖球员。他们一轮又一轮保持好运气，因为很少有人会统治任何人，然后能够杀死比赛。最近的客场比赛情况一直相当，总是得分偏低，而且不利于他们的比赛听起来也不是一个好主意。

在巴利亚多利德缺席的人很多，没有哪个人非常重要，从毕尔巴鄂租借的前锋也不被允许上场比赛。本赛季得分最高的球员是中场球员，但是奥雷利亚纳和普莱诺的进球数分别为5和4，而他们在奥地利获得好成绩的签约韦斯曼的进球已经达到了4个进球。

毕尔巴鄂在这里很少有平局，对于巴利亚多利德来说，这感觉像是一场胜利，但由于我相信对马竞的胜利的渴望是极大的积极推动，他们必须在这里争取主场胜利.

2-1

According to my betting model Bilbao are worth a bet if the home win odds are more than 1.75. Let me tell why, even if they have had their mental downfall after losing not one but two cup finals within last few weeks!

Motivation.

They are now 9th and 8 points behind Villarreal who at 7th place occupy the last place which takes a club to European competitions. With a win here the gap would be 5 with 5 rounds to go, and it is doable. Especially when we remember that Villarreal still have at least the semifinals in this season's Europa league to go and they will surely drop points.

Form.

The focus of Bilbao was naturally in the cup finals in April, they lost of them and the mental distraction partly explains the mediocre results before the win over title chasers Atletico, but looking at the 4 draws more closely it can be seen that Bilbao were the better team in all of the games!

Tiredness.

Yes, it has been a tough with two games last week, and Valladolid have one more day of rest here from the weekend which has to be noted.

Injuries.

Key midfielder Muniain is out as well as defenders Capa and Berchiche due injury, midfielder Vencedor is suspended and there a few other doubts. Some of them already missed the win over Atletico, and knowing coach Marcelino's tendency to rotate in a heavy schedule these are not crucially bad news.

Mental state

Bilbao seemed active and fresh again against Atletico, so it seems they have gotten over the disappointments in the cup and are heading full strenght into European competitions. A new start!

Valladolid in the other hand are once more in the relegation fight, and they had a disappointing week of their own after drawing their both games against main rivals.

Valladolid can occasionally perform on a good level and seemingly challenge anyone, but what they lack is winning spirit, they have failed to win matches that were completely winnable, like the one v Cadiz last time around. It has to be said also that they are very strongly a home team, on their travels they have achieved total of 2 wins so far, vs Granada and Getafe. The xG-data would give them a few more points, but they are clearly a relegation battling side, and that is mostly down to lack of absolute top players. They have to ride their luck round after round as it is very rare that they would dominate anyone, and then be able to kill the game. The recent away games have been relatively equal, always low-scoring and a big handicap against them does not sound like a good idea.

There are a few absentees at Valladolid, no one is hugely important, not either the striker on loan from Bilbao, Kodro, who is not allowed to play. The best scorers this season have been midfielders, but with 5 and 4 goals each Orellana and Plano need no extra caution, and their profile signing Weissman who scored for fun in Austria has settled to 4 goals so far.

Bilbao have very little use for a draw here, for Valladolid it would feel like a win, but as I believe that the win over Atletico was a hugely positive boost I have to go for a home win here and hope that there are enough odds for a value bet.

2-1