In my opinion Hertha have really good chances to avoid loss in this game and maybe get qualification into next round at the end of the day.

Obviously, Hertha started new season very bad, but now I don’t see them as a worse team in comparison to HSV. Hertha failed to score in first three opening matches in league, but they signed good striker Tabakovic and now he is second-best scorer in whole league. Hertha scored one goal more than HSV in 15 rounds of Bundesliga and only Dusseldorf have more goals in whole league.

On the other hand Hertha conceded 5 goals more than HSV in 15 league matches (25 vs. 20), but according to the expected goals conceded model is not deserved result at all. According to this model Hertha should concede 24.4, HSV 24.3.

Home advantage also should make difference in this game. Hertha in current season of Bundesliga 2 went unbeaten in 5 of 7 matches front of home crowd, scored 19 goals during that run. On the other hand HSV failed to win in 7 of 8 away league matches and conceded 16 goals in the process.

In addition to that, Hertha is in better form at the moment. HSV failed to win in 6 of last 10 matches in all competitions. Hertha didn’t lost in last 6 matches in a row and in 5 of those matches scored more than one goal.

I see value on home side here.

在我看来，赫塔有很好的机会在这场比赛中避免输球，并有可能在今天结束时进入下一轮。

显然，赫塔在新赛季开始时非常糟糕，但现在我不认为他们是一支比HSV更糟糕的球队。赫塔在联赛开局的前三场比赛中都没有进球，但他们签下了优秀的前锋塔巴科维奇，现在他是整个联赛第二好的射手。赫塔在德甲15轮中比HSV多进1球，在整个联赛中只有杜塞尔多夫的进球数比赫塔多。

另一方面，赫塔在15场联赛中(25比20)比HSV多丢了5个球，但根据预期失球模型根本不是应得的结果。根据这个模型，赫塔应该认输24.4,HSV认输24.3。

主场优势也会在这场比赛中发挥作用。在本赛季的德甲联赛中，赫塔在主场7场比赛中5场不败，打入19球。另一方面，HSV在8场客场比赛中有7场未能获胜，并在此过程中丢了16个球。

除此之外，赫塔现在的状态更好了。HSV在所有赛事的最后10场比赛中有6场失利。赫塔在最近的6场比赛中没有输球，其中5场比赛进球超过1球。

我看到了主场的价值。