In my opinion Aston Villa have bigger chances to avoid loss in today's match up than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

Last match between both teams at this stadium finished with draw 1:1. I believe Aston Villa going to play without any fear.

Aston Villa is in superb form, no doubt about that. Since end of September they played 12 matches in all competitions and recorded only one loss - on the road against Nottingham, but that wasn't deserved result at all: expected goals scored for Nottingham 0.38 (26% ball possession), for Aston Villa 1.23 (74% ball possession). Aston Villa is even more impressive front of home crowd with Unai Emery on the bench. He made new record, he won 13 consecutive home matches in Premier League and he wants to make #14 today. Team confidence is on the highest possible level and all pressure is on the Manchester City shoulders.

Citizens failed to win in 3 of last 4 matches. Defensive formation lost stability and consistency - 4 games without clean sheet, in 3 of last 4 matches they conceded more than one goal. Hard to imagine clean sheet for them today (Aston Villa scored more than one goal in 8 of last 9 matches). In addition to that, City coming for this game without their best player in current season (according to the ratings) Rodri. It's huge blow. City lost 5 of last 8 matches when he not played.

On those circumstances I see excellent value on home side.

在我看来，阿斯顿维拉在今天的比赛中避免输球的机会比博彩公司给我们的赔率要大。

两队在这个体育场的上一场比赛以1:1的平局结束。我相信阿斯顿维拉会毫无畏惧地比赛。

阿斯顿维拉状态极佳，这是毫无疑问的。自9月底以来，他们在各项赛事中打了12场比赛，只输了一场——在客场对阵诺丁汉的比赛中，但这一结果根本不值得:诺丁汉的预期进球数为0.38(26%控球率)，阿斯顿维拉的预期进球数为1.23(74%控球率)。阿斯顿维拉在板凳上的表现更令人印象深刻。他创造了新的纪录，他在英超联赛中连续赢得13场主场比赛，今天他想创造第14个。球队的信心达到了最高水平，所有的压力都落在了曼城的肩上。

市民队在最近4场比赛中3场失利。防守阵型失去了稳定性和稳定性——4场比赛没有零封对手，最近4场比赛中有3场失球超过1球。很难想象他们今天能不失球(阿斯顿维拉在最近9场比赛中有8场进球超过1球)。除此之外，曼城在这场比赛中没有他们本赛季最好的球员罗德里(根据收视率)。这是一个巨大的打击。在他缺席的8场比赛中，曼城输掉了5场。

在这种情况下，我认为主队很有价值。