Mainz's recent performances have been solid yet lacking in inspiration, with last weekend's 1-1 draw against Hoffenheim extending their unbeaten run to four league games (W1, D3). However, their total of six points in these matches contributes significantly to their seasonal tally of eight points. Currently occupying the relegation play-off position, Mainz has shown improvement since the departure of Bo Svensson. Caretaker coach Jan Siewart is now the first Mainz coach since Kasper Hjulmand in 2014 to remain unbeaten across his first three games in charge. Notably, Mainz has kept as many clean sheets in three games under Siewart (two) as they did in Svensson’s final 21 matches.

Facing Freiburg at home could be an opportune moment for Mainz, given their impressive record of being unbeaten in 13 of their last 14 Bundesliga home head-to-heads (W8, D5). On the other hand, Freiburg arrives on the back of a remarkable 5-0 victory over Olympiacos in the UEFA Europa League, securing consecutive group progressions in the competition. However, translating this European success into Bundesliga points becomes the next challenge for Christian Streich’s side. They enter this clash after a five-game winless run in domestic action (D2, L3), marking their longest such streak since 2020. Freiburg's away form compounds the challenge, with no wins in five away league games (D1, L4), during which they failed to score in three matches and conceded 13 goals.

Freiburg's Michael Gregoritsch, fresh off his first career hat-trick in the midweek European win, might aim to make an impact in the Bundesliga clash with Mainz. I believe the vistors are much closer to the victory than the odds suggest here!!

美因茨最近的表现稳定，但缺乏灵感，上周末1-1战平霍芬海姆的比赛将他们的不败纪录延长到了4场(W1, D3)。然而，他们在这些比赛中的6分对他们本赛季的8分有很大的贡献。目前在保级附加赛的位置上，美因茨在斯文森离开后表现出了进步。看守教练扬·西沃特是2014年卡斯珀·胡尔曼德执教美因茨后，首位在前三场比赛中保持不败的教练。值得注意的是，美因茨在西沃特的三场比赛中(两场)保持了与斯文森最后21场比赛一样多的零封。

对于美因茨来说，在主场面对弗莱堡可能是一个很好的机会，因为他们在最近的14场德甲主场交锋中有13场保持不败(W8, D5)。另一方面，弗赖堡在欧联杯中以5-0大胜奥林匹亚科斯，确保了小组连续出线。然而，如何将欧洲赛场的胜利转化为德甲联赛的积分将是施特雷奇的下一个挑战。在本场比赛之前，他们在国内比赛中经历了5场无胜(D2, L3)，这是他们自2020年以来最长的连胜纪录。弗赖堡的客场状态使挑战更加严峻，他们在5场客场比赛(D1, L4)中没有获胜，其中3场比赛没有进球，丢了13个球。

弗赖堡的迈克尔·格雷戈里奇，在周中欧战的胜利中完成了他职业生涯的第一个帽子戏法，可能会在德甲对阵美因茨的比赛中发挥作用。我相信客队比赔率更接近胜利!!