In my opinion Hamburg have bigger chances to make at least one point in this game than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

St. Pauli is leader of the table, HSV is on the second place, but odds on hosts are really too low. This is derby of Hamburg and such matches always are very tight. St. Pauli coach Hurzeler said: ‘’ "There are no favourites in this game.’’ Interesting stat – in history of derby matches between both teams odds on St. Pauli win for the first time are below 2.00..

I see big difference between both teams in terms of quality in attack. St. Pauli scored 27 goals so far, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score only 20.1. On the other hand HSV scored 28 goals, but according to the same model they should score over 30. There is 10 goals difference between both teams in that department, it’s huge margin.

Obviously, on the paper St. Pauli defensive looks better as they conceded only 11 goals in current campaign (7 less than HSV), but in last round St. Pauli conceded 2 goals against Hansa (just above relegation) and they should concede even more (3.43 expected goals conceded!). For sure they are not in top form at the back. In last 10 matches St. Pauli conceded at least one goal 8 times. I believe HSV firepower will be very hard to stop. Guests scored more than one goal in last 5 matches in a row. Everything clicking together at the moment.

HSV should be able to score some goals, I don’t trust for St. Pauli defensive formation after what I saw in last round. HSV strength in attack should make big difference at the end of the day. I see excellent value on away side.

在我看来，汉堡队在这场比赛中至少有一分的机会比博彩公司给我们的赔率要大。

圣保利排名第一，HSV排名第二，但东道主的几率实在太低了。这是汉堡德比，这样的比赛总是很激烈。圣保利教练赫尔泽勒说:“这场比赛没有夺冠热门。“有趣的数据——在德比历史上两队之间的比赛中，圣保利首次获胜的赔率低于2.00……

我看到了两支球队在进攻质量上的巨大差异。到目前为止，圣保利队打进了27球，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该只进20.1球。另一方面，HSV进了28个球，但根据同样的模型，他们应该进30个以上。两队在这方面有10个球的差距，这是一个巨大的差距。

显然，从纸面上看，圣保利的防守看起来更好，他们在本赛季只丢了11个球(比HSV少7个)，但在上一轮对阵汉莎(刚刚高于保级)时，圣保利丢了2个球，他们应该丢得更多(预计丢3.43个球!)可以肯定的是，他们在后场并没有处于最佳状态。在过去的10场比赛中，圣保利有8次至少丢了一个球。我相信HSV的火力很难被阻挡。客队连续5场比赛进1球以上。现在一切都很顺利。

HSV应该能进一些球，我不相信圣保利的防守阵型，因为我在上一轮看到了。HSV的攻击强度最终会产生很大的影响。我在客场看到了极好的价值。