Relegation battle of the day!
2021-04-25

Jarkko

外籍分析师

西甲

04/25 20:00

已完赛

解读理由:

实际排名表中有4分差距是有利于赫塔菲的,这使韦斯卡处于降级区,但实际上所有其他统计数据都没有差异;例如,预期目标模型将两者视为相等。

自从韦斯卡在一月份将他们的经理换成帕切塔以来,韦斯卡已经打了14场比赛,战绩为4-3-7,进球差为17-20,这意味着韦斯卡是全联盟第14好成绩的球队。然而,xG模型表明他们应该以20的目标差值获得20分,因此仍有改进的空间!这些数字将他们排在第十位,领先于塞尔塔和巴伦西亚。

在同一时间段内,赫塔菲的成绩是15场比赛中2-5-8,进球差9-21。 xG给了他们多了点的肯定,而且总是会有他们遇到哪支队伍以及对手阵容的问题,但为简化起见,没有太多理由认为赫塔菲在这两个方面会更好!看看下面的最新消息:

1-0There is 4 points gap in the table favouring Getafe in the actual table and it keeps Huesca in the relegation zone, but in all truth there is no difference in the other statistics and for example the expected goal models sees these two as equals.

Since Huesca changed their manager to Pacheta in January Huesca have played 14 games with a 4-3-7 saldo and goal difference of 17-20, which means that in his period Huesca have been 14th best team result-wise. However the xG-model suggests that they shoud had earned 20 points with a 0 goal difference, so there is still room for improvement! Those numbers would take them to 10th place, ahead of the likes of Celta and Valencia.

In the same time period Getafe's results are 2-5-8 out of 15 games, with a 9-21 goal difference. The xG gives them a bit more credit and it always also a question of who they have met and with which lineups, but to simplify things there is not much reason to think Getafe would be any better of these two! A look at the latest below:

除非您像我一样支持韦斯卡,否则那场对阵塞尔塔的比赛理应非常有趣,真是场不应有的损失。他们也很不幸输给了主要对手阿拉维斯,而上一次离开马竞时,他们显然关注了这场更加胜利的比赛,因为他们的几个关键球员都休息了! 加兰和米尔准备赢得这场比赛。

赫塔菲最近在进攻方面表现出色;

The Celta-game was fun to watch unless you had backed Huesca like I had. Undeserved loss. They were also unlucky to lose vs main rivals Alaves, and last time away at Atletico they clearly had their eyes on this much more winnable game as several of their key players were rested! Galan and Rafa Mir are ready to win this game.

Getafe have been offensively on their best recently,

几乎完全能够将其限制的球队只有奥萨苏纳和马德里竞技。根据xG数据,面对非完全体的皇家马德里和加的斯,他们实际上应该都赢了!

他们之所以没有这样做,是因为他们的前锋水平缺乏,而且大多数人甚至都不能说出他们的名字。得分最高的球员是安吉尔(Angel)和海梅·马塔(Jaime Mata),他们各有5个进球,但都没有实现他们的预期目标,而且不幸的是,目前还没有其他可能的得分手。左翼后卫库库雷拉(Cucurella)是出色的运球手和传球手,而阿伦娜(Alena)则是一流的,阿兰巴里(Arambarri)偶尔能远距离射门……但是他们看上去并不危险吗?乌纳尔...我猜对他有期望,可他现在本赛季进球才两次。

教练波达拉斯(Bordalas)非常疲惫,且是个苛刻而讨厌的人,如果有人碰巧想要他,我也不会感到震惊。除了最后一场比赛之外,赫塔菲缺乏比赛的乐趣,而且由于韦斯卡有很多比赛,我似乎将其作为狭义上的最爱,即使在这些赔率下主场胜利还无法确定的情况下,也必须下注!

1-0 是我的预测

only teams that have been almost completely able to shut them down have been Osasuna and Atletico Madrid. There were some horrible individual losses in the Barcelona match which simply were punished, but against the weakened Real Madrid and Cadiz they actually should had won both according to xG-data!

The reason they do not is the lack of class of their strikers, and most people can not even name them. The best scorers have been Angel and Jaime Mata with 5 goals each, both have underachieved their expected goals and unfortunately there are no other likely scorers at sight. Left wing-back Cucurella is good dribbler and passer and Alena has class, Arambarri shoots occasionally well from a distance... but they do not look dangerous do they? Unal... I guess there were expectations for him, he has now scored twice this season.

The coach Bordalas is very exhausting figure, a demanding and nasty person and I would not be shocked to see him go, if someone else happens to want him. Apart the last games Getafe has lacked joy of play, and as Huesca have plenty of it I seem them as narrow favourites in this, and even if the home win is far from certain with these odds the bet has to be taken!

No important absentees at either side in this hugely important relegation 6-pointer. Go for asian hc 0 if you have the chance.

1-0


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