In my opinion Chiba have really good chances to avoid loss in this game.

Play-off semifinal game to get qualification into big final and fight to get promotion into J1 league. Tokyo finished regular season 3 places above Chiba in league table, but I don’t see them as a favorite of this game.

According to the expected goals conceded model Tokyo had third-best defensive formation in regular season as they should concede 41.2 goals in 42 matches. Strong result, but Chiba wasn’t far away in that department as they finished with 45.5 expected goals conceded in regular season. Big difference between both teams is visible in expected goals scored department – Chiba finished regular season with 64.9 expected goals scored, it’s almost 12 goals more than Tokyo Verdy (53.2).

Tokyo doesn’t looked convincing at home in regular season, no doubt about that. They played 21 matches front of home crowd, but recorded only 8 wins. Big pressure on their shoulders today and for sure is not easy to handle. Chiba was solid on the road as they went unbeaten in 12 of 21 away league matches in regular season.

Chiba lost last match between both teams at this stadium, but they had a lead 2:0 in that game. For sure today they will stay much more focus. Before that game Chiba had streak of 4 matches without a loss here.

I don’t see Tokyo as a fav here.

在我看来千叶县有很好的机会在这场比赛中避免失败。

附加赛半决赛，以获得进入大决赛的资格，并争取升入J1联赛。东京在常规赛中排名比千叶高3位，但我不认为他们是这场比赛的最爱。

根据预期失球模型，东京在常规赛42场比赛中丢了41.2个球，排名第三。这是一个强劲的结果，但千叶在这方面并不差，他们常规赛的预期失球为45.5个。两队在预期进球数方面的差距很大。千叶在常规赛结束时的预期进球数为64.9，比东京Verdy(53.2)多出近12球。

东京在常规赛的主场看起来并不令人信服，这是毫无疑问的。他们在主场进行了21场比赛，但只取得了8场胜利。今天他们肩上的压力很大，而且肯定不容易处理。千叶在客场表现稳定，常规赛21场客场比赛中12场保持不败。

千叶在这个体育场输掉了两队的最后一场比赛，但他们在那场比赛中以2:0领先。可以肯定的是，今天他们会更加专注。在那场比赛之前，千叶在这里连续4场不败。

我认为东京在这里不受欢迎。