In my opinion Aston Villa have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

Aston Villa played two times against Tottenham since Unai Emery came to the club and they recorded two wins. Last match between both teams at this stadium finished with Aston Villa 2:0 win. For sure guests coming for this game with big mental advantage.

Tottenham is higher in league table, but there is only one point difference between both clubs. If You look deeper - Aston Villa plays better. According to the expected goals scored model they should score almost 5 goals more than Tottenham (24.1 vs 19.4) and according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede almost 3 goals less (16.1 vs 19.0).

Aston Villa is in great form - 5 wins in last 6 matches in all competitions, they lost against Nottingham on the road, but that wasn't deserved result at all: expected goals scored for Aston Villa 1.23, for Nottingham 0.38. Everything clicking together at the moment and they wants to go with momentum. On the other hand Tottenham had amazing start of the season, but now they recorded two losses in a row and for sure their confidence is not on the highest possible level

Aston Villa don't have any new absences so their line up should look exactly the same like in previous round. Tottenham have serious squad problems before today's game. They are without two key central defenders Van de Ven & Romero (so hard to imagine clean sheet), key defensive midfielder Bissouma and key offensive midfielder Maddison (best player according to the ratings).

On those circumstances I see great value on away side here.

在我看来，阿斯顿维拉有很好的机会在今天的比赛中至少得一分。

自从埃梅里来到阿斯顿维拉之后，他们两次对阵热刺，并取得了两场胜利。两队在这个球场的上一场比赛以阿斯顿维拉2:0获胜告终。来参加这场比赛的客人肯定有很大的心理优势。

热刺在积分榜上排名靠前，但两家俱乐部之间只有1分的差距。如果你深入观察，阿斯顿维拉踢得更好。根据预期进球数模型，他们应该比热刺多进近5球(24.1比19.4)，根据预期丢球数模型，他们应该少丢近3球(16.1比19.0)。

阿斯顿维拉的状态很好，在最近的6场比赛中取得了5场胜利，他们在客场输给了诺丁汉，但这根本不是他们应得的结果:阿斯顿维拉的预期进球数为1.23，诺丁汉为0.38。现在一切都在一起，他们想要前进。另一方面，热刺本赛季有一个惊人的开局，但是现在他们连续输了两场，可以肯定的是他们的信心并没有达到最高水平

阿斯顿维拉没有任何新的缺阵，所以他们的阵容应该和上一轮完全一样。热刺在今天的比赛前有严重的阵容问题。他们失去了两个关键的中卫范德文和罗梅罗(很难想象不失球)，关键的防守中场比苏马和关键的进攻中场麦迪逊(根据评级最佳球员)。

在这种情况下，我认为客场有很大的价值。