In my opinion Paderborn have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

Ok, currently Elversberg is higher in league table, but for me Paderborn is team with higher quality and bigger potential. Hosts are league newcomers and for them main goal is to avoid relegation. On the other hand Paderborn 4 years ago played on the higher level, since then they are rock solid team in Bundesliga 2 standards (last 3 seasons finished in top half of the table, 6th in previous season).

Since middle of September Paderborn is in excellent form, they played 9 matches in all competitions and 7 times went unbeaten (5 wins in the process, including big away win against Freiburg in Cup). In those matches when they lost, according to the expected goals scored model they should make much better results. They lost on away against Hertha: expected goals scored for Hertha 1.24, for Paderborn 1.99. They lost at home against Nurnberg: expected goals scored for Nurnberg 1.79, for Paderborn 2.89. No new absences so their line up should look exactly the same like in previous round.

Elversberg won 3 of last 6 league matches, but their results looks better than really should. They won 3:0 at home against Braunschweig (relegation zone), but that wasn't so convincing: expected goals scored for Elversberg 1.13, for Braunschweig 0.47. They won on away against Magdeburg, but that wasn't deserved result at all: expected goals scored for Elversberg 0.46, for Magdeburg 1.44. They won on away against Schalke, but that also wasn't deserved result at all: expected goals scored for Elversberg 0.75, for Schalke 2.26. In addition to that, hosts today without their best scorer Faghir.

On those circumstances I see excellent chances for guests in this encounter.

在我看来，帕德博恩在今天的比赛中有很好的机会至少得一分。

好吧，目前埃尔弗斯伯格在联赛中排名更高，但对我来说帕德博恩是一支质量更高、潜力更大的球队。东道主是联赛新人，他们的主要目标是保级。另一方面，帕德博恩4年前在更高的水平上踢球，从那时起，他们是德甲标准下的坚如磐石的球队(最近3个赛季都在积分榜上半区，前一个赛季排名第6)。

自9月中旬以来，帕德博恩的状态非常好，他们在各项赛事中打了9场比赛，7次保持不败(其中5场胜利，包括在杯赛上对弗赖堡的大胜)。在那些输球的比赛中，根据预期进球模型，他们应该取得更好的成绩。他们客场输给了赫塔:赫塔的预期进球数为1.24，帕德博恩的预期进球数为1.99。他们在主场输给了纽伦堡:纽伦堡的预期进球数为1.79，帕德伯恩的预期进球数为2.89。没有新的缺阵，所以他们的阵容应该和上一轮完全一样。

埃尔弗斯伯格在过去的6场联赛中赢了3场，但他们的成绩看起来比实际情况要好。他们在主场3:0战胜了布伦瑞克(降级区)，但这并不那么令人信服:埃尔弗斯伯格的预期进球数为1.13，布伦瑞克的预期进球数为0.47。他们在客场战胜马格德堡的比赛中获胜，但这个结果根本不值得:埃尔弗斯堡的预期进球数为0.46，马格德堡的预期进球数为1.44。他们在客场战胜了沙尔克，但这也不是他们应得的结果:埃尔弗斯伯格的预期进球数为0.75，沙尔克的预期进球数为2.26。除此之外，东道主今天失去了他们最好的射手法希尔。

在这种情况下，我认为客人在这次会面中有极好的机会。