Andalucian derby, where the stronger side Sevilla is good form, good injury situation and top motivation whereas the visiting Granada side have been riding their luck all season, have played the biggest number of games, have suffered from injuries and covid, and have basically nothing to play for.

How did we get into these positions, Sevilla 4th with 67 points and on paper still in the title race, and Granada at 8th with 42? A look at xG-data next:

Sevilla have outperformed result-wise by 10 points if we blindly believe the xG-numbers. Still, with those 57 points they would be 3rd, alongside with table topping Atletico Madrid! Such an overperformance from both is best explained by tight defense which wins them games, and good finishing. However Sevilla have actually scored less goals than expected, so I am willing to give a lot of credit of the points to coach Lopetegui and the wide roster of players he has rotated wisely. Despite En-Nesyri with his 17 goals we can expect more to come from Ocampos who has worth of 10 goals of xG, but has only scored 4 so far.

安达卢西亚德比，实力更强的塞维利亚状态良好，有良好的伤病状况和最强大的动力，而来访的格拉纳达整个赛季都在靠运气，踢了最多的比赛，受了伤病和新冠病毒的困扰，基本上没有什么可争取的。

塞维利亚以67分排在第四，而格拉纳达以42分排在第八?接下来看看预期数据:

如果我们盲目相信预期数据，塞维利亚的表现已经超过了10分。尽管如此，凭借这57分，他们仍将位列第三，与积分榜第一的马德里竞技并列!他们如此出色的表现最好的解释是严密的防守，这让他们赢得了比赛，以及出色的收尾。然而塞维利亚的进球实际上比预期的要少，所以我很愿意把分数归功于教练洛佩特吉和他灵活轮换的球员名单。尽管恩内塞里有17个进球，我们可以期待奥坎波斯有更多的进球，他有10个预期进球，但到目前为止只进了4个。

No real injury worries at Sevilla, and lately in the league they performed like this:

Decent stuff! They also were clearly the better side in the away leg at Dortmund, they gave a good fight to Barcelona in the cup and they are full of class this season, it is the best Sevilla of all times!

The visiting Granada side has been costly to me, as they seem to overcome their injuries and rather low class material round after round, but usually only at home! They have 3 away wins, all vs poor sides Getafe, Elche and Valladolid, and while visiting the big teams the results are a lot more worrying.. like the 6-1 at Atletico. The last matches have gone like this:

在客场对阵多特蒙德的比赛中，他们的表现也很好，他们在杯赛中对阵巴塞罗那的比赛很精彩，这个赛季他们充满了活力，这是有史以来最好的塞维利亚!

来访的格拉纳达队对我来说很有价值，因为他们似乎一轮又一轮地克服了伤病。他们有三场客场胜利，所有对手都是实力较弱的赫塔菲、埃尔切和瓦拉多利德，而当他们拜访大球队时，结果更令人担忧。就像马竞的那场6-1。最后的比赛是这样的:

Granada are actually in a better injury situation than for the most of the season, but as they have overperformed strongly with both scored goals and earned points I personally still see them as a bottom-6 club who have been in a good positive spin, who alway seem thankful and surprised after each win, and they make their city proud.

If there is one team however they do not mind losing to it is Sevilla, this is one of the friendly derbies in Spain, and seeing Sevilla win the teams of Barcelona and Madrid would please them strongly!

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格拉纳达的伤病状况实际上比本赛季大部分时间都要好，但由于他们在进球和得分方面表现得非常出色，我个人仍然认为他们是一个排名倒数第六的俱乐部，他们一直处于良好的积极状态，每次获胜后他们总是心存感激和惊讶，他们让他们的城市感到骄傲。

如果有一支球队他们不介意输给塞维利亚，这是在西班牙的友谊赛之一，看到塞维利亚赢下巴塞罗那和马德里会让他们非常高兴!

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