In my opinion Chelsea have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

Chelsea have very solid streak against Newcastle as they didn't lost against them in 8 of last 11 matches in all competitions.

Both teams in totally different mood. Newcastle lost last two consecutive matches (against Dortmund in Champions League and against Bournemouth in Premier League), both with the same scoreline (0:2). In those matches Newcastle looked poor at both ends of the pitch: unstable at the back (no surprise, they are still without key defenders Burn & Botman) and uncreative in attack (in both matches had less than 0.56 expected goals scored). Hard to imagine big improvement today - Newcastle probably still without two best scorers Isak and Wilson. In addition to that, Bruno Guimaraes (one of the best player in the team) just 3 days ago played in South America against Argentina so for sure freshness is not on his side. Other important players like Anderson, Tonali, Barnes or Murphy are also unavailable. List is long and that should have very bad impact on hosts performance today.

On the other hand Chelsea is on the raise. They played two big matches back to back. Win in derby of London against Tottenham (leader of the table)and one point after crazy match against title defenders Manchester City (4:4). Everything start clicking together - 8 goals scored and team confidence is on the highest possible level. In addition to that, today is possible debut for Nkunku (potential for the biggest star of the team, he get injured in pre-season). Team wants to go with momentum and they have all required tools to do that.

Newcastle is 3 spots above Chelsea in league table (4 points difference), but according to the expected goals scored & conceded model Chelsea should be higher.

On those circumstances I see really good opportunity for Chelsea to avoid loss.

在我看来，切尔西有很好的机会在今天的比赛中至少得一分。

切尔西在对阵纽卡斯尔的比赛中取得了非常稳定的连胜，在过去的11场比赛中，他们有8场没有输过纽卡斯尔。

两支球队的心情完全不同。纽卡斯尔最近两场比赛(欧冠对阵多特蒙德和英超对阵伯恩茅斯)都以同样的比分(0:2)输球。在这两场比赛中，纽卡斯尔在球场的两端看起来都很糟糕:后防线不稳定(毫不奇怪，他们仍然没有关键后卫伯恩和博特曼)，进攻缺乏创造力(两场比赛的预期进球数都不到0.56)。很难想象今天有什么大的进步——纽卡斯尔可能仍然没有两个最好的射手伊萨克和威尔逊。除此之外，布鲁诺·吉马良斯(球队中最好的球员之一)3天前刚刚在南美对阵阿根廷，所以他肯定没有新鲜感。其他重要的球员，如安德森、托纳利、巴恩斯和墨菲也无法上场。列表很长，这应该会对今天的主机性能产生非常坏的影响。

另一方面，切尔西正在涨工资。他们背靠背打了两场大赛。在伦敦德比中战胜热刺(积分榜第一)，并在与卫冕冠军曼城(4:4)的疯狂比赛中获得一分。一切都开始变得和谐起来——进了8个球，球队的信心达到了最高水平。除此之外，今天可能是恩昆库的处子秀(他在季前赛中受伤，有成为球队最大明星的潜力)。团队想要保持势头，他们拥有所有必要的工具来做到这一点。

纽卡斯尔在积分榜上比切尔西高3位(差4分)，但根据预期进球数和失球数模型，切尔西应该更高。

在这种情况下，我认为切尔西有很好的机会避免输球。