11月21日莫鱼雷 VS 莫斯科罗迪纳比赛分析直播
Torpedo Moscow VS Rodina Moscow
Torpedo Moscow for this Russian FNL round 19 clash at Stadion Eduarda Strelcova in Nizhnekamsk late Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the second-highest tier of Russian football. For a second-tier the level is pretty okay by European standards. The difference compared to the Premier League is, however, substantial. Football fans and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind – can expect a match of clearly better than average level by this league standards here. The hosts were relegated from the first tier after last season. They have been a small disappointment so far this season – no denying this fact. However, I have lowered their power rating only a bit from my in-depth, strongly data-based preseason analysis. This rating reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible starting eleven. They currently occupy the 6th place in this rating. In the standings they are in 10th place with 23 points in their pocket. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is 27.07. Their offense has not been as productive as I would have expected – they have netted the ball 16 times in the FNL this season. However, their number of expected goals (xG) is 21.01. They have allowed 19 goals. Rodina Moscow, on the other hand, have more firepower than Torpedo.. They have scored 27 goals and have a good number of skilled offensive players for this level. However, their number of xG is "only" 23.34. Even so, they do have an edge over the hosts in this area – with today's expected lineups. Rodina have conceded 18 goals and their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 19.11. In this area the two teams are pretty equal in my expert opinion.
Rodina finished in 5th place last season. They, too, have been a little disappointing as a whole this season. They have 24 points to their account and have been somewhat unlucky in terms of xPTS. They, too, can improve as the season progresses though. I want to mention that according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, their squad has an estimated total market value of only 9.50 million euros. This is a little too low though. The Torpedo players have a total market of around 13 million – which is too low. 15-16 million would be a more realistic number. Rodina have been in slightly better form than the hosts lately. They have won three of their last five games. However, I cannot agree with the bookies - who even offer odds on this game. Indeed, these bookies see Rodina as solid favourites – offering them odds of around 2.35 to win. Taking the home advantage into account – Torpedo deserve to be narrow favourites. The Torpedo +0.5 goals handicap is the obvious smart bet here. Rodina beat Chernomorets Novorossisk in their latest game 4-0 at home. The visitors are a limited team though – currently in 17th place. Rodina were clear favourites in this match. They did deserve to win but the final score is still misleading. The visitors, too, had their chances to score. Rodina recorded 71 attacks – the visitors' number was 56. Before this Rodina were lame offensive and lost to Arsenal Tula 0-1 away from home. Rodina recorded only two shots on target – the hosts managed five. Torpedo played a rather low-tempo clash against Neftekhimik away from home in their last game. It was a rather balanced battle and no goals were scored. Before this they were far from their best and lost to Volgar-Astrakhan 0-3 at home. However, Torpedo had 60% ball possession and recorded many more attacks (72-49) and dangerous attacks 41-26. The visitors recorded more goal attempts though – 10-6 to be precise. They defended very well – and played above their normal level in this match! The bookies have probably reacted too heavily to this result..