Torpedo Moscow VS Rodina Moscow

Torpedo Moscow for this Russian FNL round 19 clash at Stadion Eduarda Strelcova in Nizhnekamsk late Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the second-highest tier of Russian football. For a second-tier the level is pretty okay by European standards. The difference compared to the Premier League is, however, substantial. Football fans and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind – can expect a match of clearly better than average level by this league standards here. The hosts were relegated from the first tier after last season. They have been a small disappointment so far this season – no denying this fact. However, I have lowered their power rating only a bit from my in-depth, strongly data-based preseason analysis. This rating reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible starting eleven. They currently occupy the 6th place in this rating. In the standings they are in 10th place with 23 points in their pocket. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is 27.07. Their offense has not been as productive as I would have expected – they have netted the ball 16 times in the FNL this season. However, their number of expected goals (xG) is 21.01. They have allowed 19 goals. Rodina Moscow, on the other hand, have more firepower than Torpedo.. They have scored 27 goals and have a good number of skilled offensive players for this level. However, their number of xG is "only" 23.34. Even so, they do have an edge over the hosts in this area – with today's expected lineups. Rodina have conceded 18 goals and their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 19.11. In this area the two teams are pretty equal in my expert opinion.

Rodina finished in 5th place last season. They, too, have been a little disappointing as a whole this season. They have 24 points to their account and have been somewhat unlucky in terms of xPTS. They, too, can improve as the season progresses though. I want to mention that according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, their squad has an estimated total market value of only 9.50 million euros. This is a little too low though. The Torpedo players have a total market of around 13 million – which is too low. 15-16 million would be a more realistic number. Rodina have been in slightly better form than the hosts lately. They have won three of their last five games. However, I cannot agree with the bookies - who even offer odds on this game. Indeed, these bookies see Rodina as solid favourites – offering them odds of around 2.35 to win. Taking the home advantage into account – Torpedo deserve to be narrow favourites. The Torpedo +0.5 goals handicap is the obvious smart bet here. Rodina beat Chernomorets Novorossisk in their latest game 4-0 at home. The visitors are a limited team though – currently in 17th place. Rodina were clear favourites in this match. They did deserve to win but the final score is still misleading. The visitors, too, had their chances to score. Rodina recorded 71 attacks – the visitors' number was 56. Before this Rodina were lame offensive and lost to Arsenal Tula 0-1 away from home. Rodina recorded only two shots on target – the hosts managed five. Torpedo played a rather low-tempo clash against Neftekhimik away from home in their last game. It was a rather balanced battle and no goals were scored. Before this they were far from their best and lost to Volgar-Astrakhan 0-3 at home. However, Torpedo had 60% ball possession and recorded many more attacks (72-49) and dangerous attacks 41-26. The visitors recorded more goal attempts though – 10-6 to be precise. They defended very well – and played above their normal level in this match! The bookies have probably reacted too heavily to this result..

鱼雷莫斯科VS罗迪纳莫斯科

北京时间周日晚，莫斯科鱼雷队将在尼日涅卡姆斯克的爱德华达·斯特列科娃球场参加俄罗斯民族解放联盟第19轮比赛。这是俄罗斯足球的第二梯队。按照欧洲的标准，二线球队的水平还不错。然而，与英超相比，这种差异是巨大的。足球迷和我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期利润——可以期待一场明显高于联赛平均水平的比赛。东道主队在上个赛季后从第一梯队降级。这个赛季到目前为止，他们有点令人失望——这是不可否认的事实。然而，根据我对季前赛数据的深入分析，我只是稍微降低了他们的能量评级。这个排名反映了球队的纯粹等级，有最好的首发11人。他们目前在该评级中排名第六。在积分榜上，他们以23分排在第10位。然而，他们的期望值(xPTS)是27.07。他们的进攻并不像我预期的那样高效——他们本赛季在FNL只有16次进球。然而，他们的预期目标数(xG)是21.01。他们丢了19个球。另一方面，罗迪纳莫斯科，比鱼雷有更多的火力…他们已经进了27个球，并且在这个水平上有很多技术娴熟的进攻球员。然而，他们的xG数量“只有”23.34。即便如此，他们在这方面确实比东道主有优势——今天的预期阵容。罗迪纳丢了18个球，他们的预期失球数(xGA)是19.11个。在这方面，以我的专家观点，两支球队是相当平等的。

罗迪纳上赛季排名第五。他们这个赛季整体上也有点令人失望。他们的账户上有24分，在xPTS方面有些不走运。他们也可以随着赛季的进展而进步。我想说的是，根据德国一家知名且受人尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com，他们的总市值估计只有950万欧元。不过这个有点太低了。鱼雷玩家的总市场约为1300万-这太低了。1500万到1600万是比较现实的数字。罗迪纳最近的状态比东道主稍好一些。他们在最近五场比赛中赢了三场。然而，我不同意博彩公司的观点，他们甚至为这场比赛提供赔率。事实上，这些博彩公司认为罗迪纳是最受欢迎的人，他们的赔率约为2.35。考虑到主场的优势，鱼雷应该以微弱优势夺冠。鱼雷+0.5个进球障碍显然是明智的赌注。在最近一场比赛中，罗迪纳主场4-0击败了切尔诺莫雷茨。客队是一支实力有限的球队，目前排名第17。罗迪纳显然是这场比赛的大热门。他们确实应该获胜，但最后的比分仍然具有误导性。客队也有得分的机会。罗迪纳记录了71次攻击，而访客人数为56人。在此之前罗迪纳进攻乏力，客场0-1不敌阿森纳图拉。罗迪纳仅有2次射正，而东道主则有5次射正。鱼雷在上一场客场对阵涅弗特希米克的比赛中打得相当慢节奏。这是一场相当平衡的战斗，没有进球。在此之前，他们远没有达到最佳状态，在主场0-3输给了伏尔加队-阿斯特拉罕队。然而，鱼雷队有60%的控球率，记录了更多的攻击(72比49)和41比26的危险攻击。客队的进球次数更多，准确地说是10比6。他们防守很好，在这场比赛中发挥得比正常水平高!博彩公司可能对这个结果反应过度了。