In my opinion Lincoln have bigger chances in this game than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

Lincoln currently have good streak against Stevenage as they didn't lost against them in last 4 consecutive matches. Lincoln won last two matches at this stadium.

Stevenage is extremely overrated in this match up. Yes, they are on 5th place, but Lincoln have only 6 points less, but they also played one match less.

Lincoln should be hard opponent for Stevenage in terms of tactics. Stevenage plays from counter attacks, they have the lowest average ball possession in whole league. This is reason why Stevenage recorded more wins on away than at home, but today they have to play with possession because Lincoln is team with the second-lowest ball possession in League One. Stevenage failed to win in 5 of 8 home league matches so far.

Stevenage defensive formation in overall is solid, but currently they are out of form. Stevenage conceded at least one goal in 4 of last 5 matches in all competitions. On the other hand Lincoln have second-best defensive formation in League One (according to the expected goals conceded model).

Lincoln in last 5 matches played under interim coach Tom Show, but they still not looked bad and collected 8 points. Now they signed new boss, former Leeds u21 coach Skubala. He have good potential for this level and for sure players wants to show up. Lincoln chairman Nates said: "We are confident Michael will develop our talented squad and evolve our identity in the direction set by the club, while delivering winning football. Together our ambition is to challenge at the top of League One."

On those circumstances I see excellent value on away side.

在我看来，林肯在这场比赛中有更大的机会比赌徒想要告诉我们的赔率。

林肯最近在对阵斯蒂夫尼奇的比赛中取得了不错的成绩，因为他们在过去的4场比赛中都没有输过。林肯在这个体育场赢了最近两场比赛。

斯蒂夫尼奇在这场比赛中被高估了。是的，他们排在第五，但是林肯只少了6分，但是他们也少打了一场比赛。

林肯在战术上应该是斯蒂夫尼奇的死敌。斯蒂夫尼奇的战术是反击，他们的平均控球率是全联盟最低的。这就是为什么斯蒂夫尼奇在客场比主场赢得多的原因，但是今天他们必须要控球，因为林肯是英甲联赛控球率第二低的球队。到目前为止，斯蒂夫尼奇在8场主场比赛中有5场未能获胜。

斯蒂夫尼奇的防守阵型总体上是稳固的，但是目前他们状态不佳。在最近5场比赛中，斯蒂夫尼奇有4场至少丢1球。另一方面，林肯拥有英甲第二好的防守阵型(根据预期失球模型)。

林肯队最近5场比赛都是在临时教练Tom Show的带领下进行的，但他们看起来还不错，拿到了8分。现在他们签下了新老板，前利兹u21教练斯库巴拉。他在这个级别上有很好的潜力，当然球员们都想表现出来。林肯主席纳茨说:“我们相信迈克尔会发展我们的天才阵容，并在俱乐部设定的方向上发展我们的身份，同时带来胜利的足球。”我们的目标是一起挑战英甲榜首。”

在这种情况下，我认为客场有很大的价值。