Colombia VS Brazil

Colombia welcome Brazil for this South America World Championship Qualification round 5 battle at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez in Barranquilla Friday evening Beijing time. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of high level by global standards here. Both teams played in the last World Cup in Qatar about a year ago. Most importantly, we have yet another lucrative betting opportunity here. We have won five picks in a row betting on the South America World Championship Qualification. There are a total of 10 countries playing in this qualification group – six countries qualify for the World Cup of 2026 directly – the team that finishes in 7th place will have a chance to qualify by winning the Promotion clash against a country from another continent. Both Brazil and Colombia are, of course, strong candidates to qualify for the tournament. Brazil were, in fact, the number one favourite to win the last World Cup with almost all bookmakers ahead of the tournament. I did not quite agree with this estimation but Brazil are still one of the biggest football countries on the planet. However, we must remember that they have not reached the top-3 in a World Cup for a very long time – not even at home in Brazil back in 2014. Indeed, Brazil are often overrated on the betting market. In Qatar a year ago they were beaten by Croatia in the quarter-finals after penalties as massive favourites on the betting market – priced around 1.40 to win during the 90 minutes of play. Brazil have many important players missing.  Ederson has been forced to withdraw from the squad due to a nasty foot injury and joins overrated but still important Neymar as well as Casemiro, Richarlison and Eder Militao on the sidelines. Gabriel Jesus has been called up despite missing Arsenal's last five games because of a muscle issue. The star striker's situation will be assessed ahead of kick off.. I believe that bookies have not given these missing players enough emphasis – at least not at time of writing this analysis late Tuesday evening Beijing time. I would not be at all surprised if the odds on Columbia to take at least a point were to drop before the kick off as smart money is expected to pile up on them. At the moment the biggest bookies who accept the biggest wagers from customers offer Brazil odds of only around 2.20 to take all three points. This is clearly too low! Taking the substantial home advantage into account – Brazil are only very marginal favourites here. Colombia have enthusiastic and loud fans. Moreover, they have not lost any of their last 15 games! What an amazing record that is! The Colombia +0.5 goals handicap option is the obvious smart bet to try and increase the winning streak! Colombia, too, have some injury problems but their situation is still better than that of Brazil! Right-back Santiago Arias has withdrawn from the national team due to an injury. Consequently FC Cincinnati (MLS league) teammate Yerson Mosquera is likely to start on the right side of a back four. Carlos Cuesta will surely hope to retain his place at center-back ahead of Y. Mina. Zenit St. Petersburg (Russian premier League) striker Mateo Cassierra has pulled out because of an injury, but Liverpool's very skilled Luis Diaz has been called up less than a week after his father was released by a Colombian guerrilla group after 12 days in captivity.. This must be a huge relief to Luis.  The fast winger could be joined in attack by Bournemouth (English Premier League) loanee Luis Sinisterra as well as Werder Bremen (German Bundesliga) loanee Rafael Santos Borre. James Rodriguez, Jhon Arias and Richard Rios, who play at club level in Brazil with Sao Paulo, Fluminense and Palmeiras respectively, are all in contention to play in midfield here. All three are big clubs! Ederson started all Brazil's last six international matches between the sticks, but his absence is set to see Liverpool's Alisson Becker given a start on Friday.

Argentina, currently occupy the first place in this group with a full 12 points to their account followed by Uruguay with seven points. Brazil have a total of seven points to their account. They have netted the ball seven times and have conceded four goals. Colombia, on the other hand, have scored only three goals, but have also allowed only two goals. Their defense is extremely well-structured and silly individual mistakes are almost non-existent! The midfielders - and even the strikers - if needed - actively take part in defending. The Colombians have five points in their pocket. Brazil, rather unsurprisingly, have more firepower, even without the key player Neymar. Their defense, on the other hand, has not been overly impressive in their recent games.. Their defenders sometimes give too risky passes which has resulted in losing the ball at critical moments. In their last game Brazil lost to Uruguay 0-2 away from home after a poor performance. Yes, they had 59% ball possession but recorded only one goal attempt and failed to record even a single shot on Uruguay's goal! What an abysmal offensive performance it was! Uruguay had five goal attempts and two shots on target. Moreover, Uruguay generated 0.83 in expected goals – Brazil managed only 0.29. Let's not forget that Brazil were clear favourites in this game – priced around 1.90 to win by the bookies. Before this the Brazilians were even more disappointing! Indeed, they failed to beat Venezuela at Arena Pantanal as gigantic favourites - at the odds of about 1.10 to win. Yes, they were the better team on the pitch but the match was much more balanced than I – not to mention the bookies - would have expected! Brazil had 13 goal attempts – the visitors managed eight. Brazil generated only a little more in xG – 0.79-0.76 to be precise. This match was yet another example of Brazil being overvalued on the betting market! Before this they did beat Peru away from home 1-0 priced around 1.22-1.25 but did not impress me too much.. They generated 0.69 in xG. Colombia played a goalless draw in Ecuador in their last game. They generated much more in xG – 1.29-0.49. They also recorded more shots on target and dangerous attacks. Ecuador did record one more goal attempt though. Colombia were clear underdogs in this match - priced around 4.50 to take all three points. It was a strong performance as a whole but Colombia can still improve further!

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哥伦比亚VS巴西

北京时间周五晚，哥伦比亚将在巴兰基利亚的罗伯托·梅尔萨姆德斯大都会体育场迎接巴西参加南美世界杯预选赛第5轮比赛。足球迷和我们这些认真的、渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待一场以全球标准衡量的高水平比赛。两队都参加了大约一年前在卡塔尔举行的上届世界杯。最重要的是，我们还有另一个赚钱的机会。我们已经连续五次赢得了南美世界杯预选赛的入场券。本届预选赛共有10个国家参加，其中6个国家有资格直接参加2026年世界杯，排名第七的球队将有机会在晋级比赛中战胜另一个大洲的国家，从而获得出线资格。当然，巴西和哥伦比亚都是晋级的有力竞争者。事实上，在上届世界杯开赛前，几乎所有的博彩公司都认为巴西队是夺冠的头号热门。我不太同意这种估计，但巴西仍然是这个星球上最大的足球国家之一。然而，我们必须记住，他们已经很长时间没有在世界杯上进入前三了——甚至在2014年的巴西主场也没有。的确，在博彩市场上，巴西经常被高估。一年前，在卡塔尔的四分之一决赛中，他们在点球大战后被克罗地亚击败，成为博彩市场上的大热门——在90分钟的比赛中，他们的胜率约为1.40英镑。巴西队有许多重要球员缺阵。由于严重的脚伤，埃德森被迫退出了大名单，与被高估但仍然重要的内马尔、卡塞米罗、理查利森和埃德尔·米利托一起在场外。加布里埃尔·热苏斯虽然因为肌肉问题缺席了阿森纳最近的五场比赛，但他已经被征召入伍。这位明星前锋的情况将在开球前得到评估。我相信博彩公司没有给予这些球员足够的重视——至少在北京时间周二晚上写这篇分析的时候没有。如果哥伦比亚大学在开球前至少得一分的赔率下降，我一点也不会感到惊讶，因为预计聪明的钱会涌向他们。目前，接受客户最大赌注的最大博彩公司提供的巴西赔率仅为2.20左右，可以获得所有三分。这显然太低了!考虑到巨大的主场优势，巴西在这里只是非常小的热门。哥伦比亚有热情响亮的球迷。此外，他们在过去的15场比赛中没有输过一场!这是一个多么惊人的记录啊!哥伦比亚+0.5个进球障碍选项显然是明智的赌注，试图增加连胜!哥伦比亚队也有一些伤病问题，但他们的情况仍然比巴西好!右后卫圣地亚哥·阿里亚斯因伤退出国家队。因此，辛辛那提足球俱乐部(美国职业足球大联盟)的队友耶尔森·莫斯克拉很可能会在四后卫的右侧首发。卡洛斯·奎斯塔肯定希望在米纳之前保住自己的中后卫位置。圣彼得堡泽尼特队(俄罗斯超级联赛)前锋马特奥·卡塞拉因伤退出比赛，但利物浦技术精湛的路易斯·迪亚兹的父亲在被囚禁12天后被哥伦比亚游击队释放，不到一周后他就被征召入伍。路易斯一定松了一口气吧。这名快速边锋可能会和租借自伯恩茅斯(英超)的路易斯·辛尼斯特拉以及租借自云达不莱梅(德甲)的拉斐尔·桑托斯·博雷一起进攻。詹姆斯·罗德里格斯、约翰·阿里亚斯和理查德·里奥斯分别效力于巴西的圣保罗、弗鲁米嫩塞和帕尔梅拉斯俱乐部，他们都有可能在这里踢中场。这三家都是大俱乐部!埃德森在巴西最近的六场国际比赛中都首发出场，但他的缺席将使利物浦的阿利森·贝克尔在周五的比赛中首发出场。

阿根廷目前以12分的积分排名小组第一，乌拉圭以7分紧随其后。巴西目前总共积7分。他们进了7球，丢了4球。另一方面，哥伦比亚只进了3个球，但也只丢了2个球。他们的防守结构非常好，几乎不存在愚蠢的个人错误!中场球员——甚至前锋——如果需要的话——会积极参与防守。哥伦比亚队已经拿到了5分。巴西，一点也不奇怪

即使没有核心球员内马尔，他们的火力也更强。另一方面，他们的防守在最近的比赛中并没有给人留下深刻的印象。他们的后卫有时会给太危险的传球，导致在关键时刻丢球。巴西队在上一场比赛中表现不佳，客场0-2不敌乌拉圭。是的，他们有59%的控球率，但只有一次进球尝试，甚至没有一次射门!多么糟糕的进攻表现啊!乌拉圭队有5次射门，2次射正。此外，乌拉圭的预期进球数为0.83，巴西仅为0.29。让我们不要忘记，巴西在这场比赛中是明显的大热门——博彩公司开出的赔率在1.90左右。在此之前，巴西人更令人失望!事实上，他们未能在潘塔纳尔竞技场(Arena Pantanal)以巨大的热门击败委内瑞拉——获胜的赔率约为1.10。是的，他们是场上更好的球队，但比赛比我——更不用说博彩公司——预期的要平衡得多!巴西队有13次射门机会，而客队只有8次。巴西在xG(0.79-0.76)中只多了一点。这场比赛是巴西在博彩市场上被高估的又一个例子!在此之前，他们在客场1-0击败了秘鲁，价格在1.22-1.25左右，但并没有给我留下太大的印象。它们在xG中生成0.69。哥伦比亚在上一场比赛中与厄瓜多尔0 - 0战平。它们在xG - 1.29-0.49中生成的数据要多得多。他们也记录了更多的正射和危险的进攻。不过，厄瓜多尔又尝试了一次进球。哥伦比亚队在这场比赛中显然处于劣势，他们的价格在4.50左右，可以拿到全部三分。从整体上看，这是一场强劲的表现，但哥伦比亚还可以进一步提高!