Cyprus VS Spain

Cyprus welcome Spain for this UEFA Euro qualification round 9 (officially) battle at Alphamega Stadium in Kolossi very early Friday morning Beijing time. In reality, Spain have played six games and Cyprus seven matches. A total of eight rounds will be played. Spain top the standings with 15 points to their account. They have won five games but lost to Scotland in round 2 0-2 after a weak performance. They generated only 0.53 in expected goals (xG), Scotland's number was 0.85. Yes, Spain are a strong team, but are still far from the top-5 level in the world! They have not quite met my expectations in terms of performances on the pitch.. Indeed, the final scores and number of points grabbed can sometimes be misleading.. In the World Cup in Qatar last year they were a big disappointment beating only a weak team, Costa Rica. They lost to Japan as big favourites after a horrible performance. They were also defeated by Morocco in the 1/8-finals -  again as clear favourites on the betting market! They are a somewhat young team on average and are not even close to the level of 2010 when players like Iniesta and Xavi brought the World Cup Trophy to Spain. The two Spanish giants, Real Madrid and Barcelona, are, of course, elite teams in Europe – and in the world – but many key players in these clubs are, in fact, foreigners.. The level of these teams - as well as the high-level of the Spanish LaLiga - second-best in the world - may blur recreational bettors' view on Spain's true class as a team.. This, of course, also has an effect on the odds offered by the bookies who adjust the odds (in part) based on how the bettors place their bets.. Scotland, too, have taken 15 points in this group. They - and Spain - have already qualified for the EURO 2024 – played in Germany next summer.

Cyprus, on the other hand, are in 5th (last) place in the group – without any points to their account. This is a surprise and they have been unlucky not to have any points in their pocket. Yes, they are the worst team in this group but are still better than the standings would suggest.. Away from home they have been weak, no denying this, but at home they fight hard in front of not the very best, but still loud fans. Football is a very popular sport in the island of Cyprus! A good number of fans are expected to cheer for their team at Alphamega Stadium. Cyprus have lost just one of their last nine games at home by a margin of more than three goals. They have even won twice and taken two draws in these nine games. In 2022 they beat Greece, a relatively strong football country 1-0. Spain, of course, are a much better team than Greece though.. However, this win proves that Cyprus can sometimes upset much better countries in front of their fans.. Even so, Spain have a whopping 86.50 % chance of winning this game but the odds of around 1.03-1.05 offered by the biggest bookies are still way too low. However, all my fans and I need to win for the 7th time in a row is for the hosts to keep this relatively close! They do not have to score but this would not, after all, be a massive surprise. The probability is  around 38%. The Cyprus +3.5 goals handicap is the obvious smart bet for my and my growing fan-base here! Odds of around 1.70 are widely available at the time of posting this. The chance of us winning once again is 64%. There is, rather interestingly, long-term data suggesting that betting on a heavy favourite with a -1.5 goals handicap – not to mention a bigger one handicap – is – in the long run - an awful idea! This is a good thing for my fans to keep in mind when betting - with caution of course - also without purchasing my picks.. I would not be at all surprised to see Spain scoring one or two goals and then aiming to lowering the tempo – while controlling the ball - to save energy and prevent injuries. Their players earn their salary at big clubs - and most of them play a lot of minutes throughout the long season.. Squad rotations from Spain are expected here. Yes, some key players may play much less minutes than they have normally play.. I will analyse the missing players and their replacements later on in this analysis.  There are, of course, no weak or even mediocre players in the Spanish squad but the level still drops as a result of rotation! Yes, Spain are still fighting for the first place in this group. If points are tied at the end of the competition, head-to-head matches will be the tie-breaker. However, both won their home game against each other 2-0, so in this case if points are tied after the last round of play, score difference will be the tie-breaker. However, it seems that the bookies give this factor too much emphasis.. Who knows what will happen to Scotland in Georgia – it is not an easy game.. The Spaniards will surely follow this game very carefully.. Furthermore, winning the group would not be of that big importance to Spain.. Yes, Spain beat Cyprus 6-0, at home - which seems ugly from the hosts' point of view - but this score does flatter the Spaniards. They generated 3.55 in xG – Cyprus managed 0.08. Like I mentioned before, for Cyprus playing at home makes a huge difference compared to away games! 

In their last game Spain were not at their best and beat Norway 1-0 away from home. They had 64% ball possession but Norway even recorded more shots on goal - 3-2 to be precise. Both teams generated only 0.52 in xG. Spain were very clear favourites in this match – priced around 1.90 to win by the bookies. Cyprus lost their most recent game 0-4 – in Georgia. The hosts did definitely deserve to win but the final score is massively misleading! Indeed, Cyprus had 44% ball possession and recorded 10 goal attempts. Both teams had five shots on goal. The visitors had more corner kicks - 4-2. Cyprus generated 0.71 in xG – the hosts' number was 1.02. They also recorded more attacks 113-97. There is an important absentee from the host's squad for November's games - 12-goal attacker Pieros Sotiriou. He sits joint-third in his country's all-time scoring charts. However, I believe the bookies have overreacted to him being out. 20-year-old Loizos Loizou is a player capable of scoring as he has some talent despite not being effective in international games so far.. No, Cyprus are not a strong football country but we need to keep in mind that their players are still serious professional footballers – unlike some say San Marino or Andorra players! The hosts can improve from precious games – in all areas of the game. Hence, a +3.5 goals handicap at home is a really big one. Against an elite country – like France – the +3.5 goals handicap at the odds of around 1.70 would be more or less correct – but not against Spain – with many absentees – and not 100% motivation to give their very best.. While Spain are yet to have any players withdraw from the ranks a big number of players are missing from the team either because of injuries - or their coach's De la Fuente's tactical choices.. These include  Aymeric Laporte, Kepa Arrizabalaga, Alejandro Balde, Marco Asensio, Pedri and Ansu Fati. These four are famous and important players for Spain! With qualification now secured, De la Fuente has picked four new guys - Alex Grimaldo, Alex Remiro, Rodrigo Riquelme and Aleix Garcia. The former is in with a pretty big chance of making his first appearance, as Jose Gaya has a minor issue - but is still in the squad though. Fati being out will offer a chance for record-breaking Barcelona teenager, Lamine Yamal, to show his "magic". He is undoubtedly a huge talent – but is still, in all honesty, just a boy and is still very inexperienced.. Pau Torres is an overrated player in my expert opinion but could take advantage of Laporte's absence at the back. Cyprus are expected to defend with 10 or perhaps even all 11 men - mainly relying on fast counter attacks, corner kicks, free kicks – or a possible penalty kick to net the ball here. I expect them to keep fighting even of they were to end up trailing by a margin of three - or even four goals. Spain will surely have a huge ball possession percentage here and I'm afraid this match will not be a very entertaining one to watch.. I have previewed many other games as well - probably the South American ones - especially Colombia vs Brazil offer much better football for the football lovers and serious bettors on Friday (Beijing time). However, our goal is to make a profit and this why I have written this in-depth analysis! Most probable final score here is 0-3.

GOOD LUCK!

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

塞浦路斯VS西班牙

北京时间周五凌晨，塞浦路斯在科洛西的阿尔法mega体育场欢迎西班牙参加欧洲杯预选赛第9轮(官方)对战。实际上，西班牙打了6场，塞浦路斯打了7场。比赛共进行8轮。西班牙以15分排名第一。他们赢了五场比赛，但在第20轮以0比2的比分输给了苏格兰队。他们的预期进球数仅为0.53，苏格兰则为0.85。是的，西班牙是一支强队，但距离世界前五水平还很远!他们在球场上的表现并没有达到我的期望。事实上，最终分数和得分有时会误导人。在去年的卡塔尔世界杯上，他们只击败了实力较弱的哥斯达黎加队，令人非常失望。在一场糟糕的比赛后，他们输给了日本队。他们也在1/8决赛中被摩洛哥击败——再次成为博彩市场上的热门球队!平均而言，他们是一支年轻的球队，甚至还没有达到2010年伊涅斯塔和哈维等球员为西班牙带来世界杯奖杯的水平。当然，两家西班牙豪门——皇家马德里和巴塞罗那——是欧洲乃至世界的精英球队，但事实上，这些俱乐部的许多关键球员都是外国人。这些球队的水平——以及世界第二的西甲联赛的水平——可能会模糊休闲博彩人士对西班牙队真正水平的看法。当然，这也会影响博彩公司提供的赔率，他们(部分地)根据投注者的投注方式来调整赔率。苏格兰也在小组中拿到了15分。他们和西班牙已经获得了明年夏天在德国举行的2024年欧洲杯的参赛资格。

另一方面，塞浦路斯在小组中排名第五(最后)，没有任何积分。这是一个惊喜，他们很不幸没有得到任何积分。是的，他们是这个小组中最差的球队，但仍然比排名所显示的要好。不可否认，他们在客场表现很弱，但在主场，他们在不是最好的球迷面前努力拼搏。足球在塞浦路斯岛是一项非常受欢迎的运动!预计将有大量球迷在Alphamega体育场为他们的球队加油。塞浦路斯在过去的9场主场比赛中只输掉了一场，落后对手3球以上。在这9场比赛中，他们甚至取得了2胜2平的战绩。2022年，他们以1比0击败了足球实力相对较强的希腊。当然，西班牙队比希腊队强多了。然而，这场胜利证明塞浦路斯有时可以在球迷面前让更好的国家失望。即便如此，西班牙队赢得这场比赛的几率高达86.50%，但最大的博彩公司提供的1.03-1.05的赔率仍然太低了。然而，我所有的粉丝和我都需要连续第七次获胜，东道主要保持这个相对接近!他们不需要进球，但这毕竟不会是一个巨大的惊喜。概率在38%左右。塞浦路斯+3.5个进球障碍显然是我和我不断增长的球迷基础的明智赌注!在发布这篇文章的时候，赔率大约在1.70左右。我们再次获胜的几率是64%相当有趣的是，长期数据表明，从长远来看，押注一个胜率为-1.5球的热门球队——更不用说胜率更高的胜率了——是一个糟糕的主意!这对我的粉丝来说是一件好事，他们在下注的时候要记住——当然要小心——也不要购买我的选择。如果看到西班牙队打进一两个球，然后在控制球的同时降低节奏，以节省能量和防止受伤，我一点也不会感到惊讶。他们的球员在大俱乐部挣薪水，而且他们中的大多数人在漫长的赛季中打了很多分钟。西班牙队将在这里进行轮换。是的，一些关键球员的上场时间可能比他们平时的上场时间要少得多。我将在稍后的分析中分析缺阵球员和他们的替补。当然，西班牙队中没有软弱甚至平庸的球员，但由于轮换，水平仍然下降!是的，西班牙仍在为小组第一而战。如果在比赛结束时得分相等，则进行肉搏赛。然而，两队都在主场以2比0战胜对方，所以在这种情况下，如果在最后一轮比赛后得分持平，则得分差将成为决胜局。然而，博彩公司似乎过于强调这个因素。谁知道会发生什么

发生在苏格兰和格鲁吉亚，这不是一场容易的比赛。西班牙人肯定会非常仔细地关注这场比赛。此外，赢得小组头名对西班牙来说并不那么重要。是的，西班牙在主场以6比0击败了塞浦路斯——从东道主的角度来看，这似乎很难看——但这个比分确实让西班牙人感到高兴。他们在2009年获得了3.55分，塞浦路斯获得了0.08分。就像我之前提到的，对于塞浦路斯来说，主场比赛和客场比赛有很大的不同!

西班牙队在上一场比赛中状态不佳，在客场1-0击败了挪威队。他们有64%的控球率，但挪威队的射门次数甚至更多——准确地说是3比2。两支球队在xG上的得分都只有0.52。西班牙队在这场比赛中是非常明显的夺冠热门，博彩公司开出的赔率约为1.90英镑。塞浦路斯最近的一场比赛是在格鲁吉亚0-4输球。主队确实应该获胜，但最终的比分是巨大的误导!事实上，塞浦路斯有44%的控球率，并且有10次射门。两队都有5次射门。客队有更多的角球——4比2。塞浦路斯的得分为0.71，东道主的得分为1.02。他们还记录了113-97年更多的袭击。在东道主11月的比赛中，有一个重要的缺阵者——打进12球的攻击手皮耶罗斯·索蒂里乌。他在国家队历史进球榜上排名并列第三。然而，我相信博彩公司对他的出局反应过度了。20岁的洛伊佐斯·洛伊佐是一名有能力得分的球员，尽管他在国际比赛中表现不佳。不，塞浦路斯不是一个足球强国，但我们需要记住，他们的球员仍然是认真的职业足球运动员-不像一些人说圣马力诺或安道尔的球员!东道主可以从宝贵的比赛中得到提高——在比赛的各个方面。因此，在主场+3.5的进球差距是非常大的。对阵像法国这样的精英国家，+3.5的进球障碍在1.70左右的赔率或多或少是正确的，但对阵西班牙，由于缺阵的球员很多，他们没有100%的动力去发挥他们最好的水平。虽然西班牙队还没有任何球员退出国家队，但很多球员要么是因为伤病，要么是因为他们的教练德拉富恩特的战术选择。其中包括艾默里克·拉波特、凯帕·阿里扎巴拉加、亚历杭德罗·巴尔德、马尔科·阿森西奥、佩德里和安苏·法蒂。这四位都是西班牙著名的重要球员!在确定出线的情况下，德拉富恩特选择了四名新人——格里马尔多、雷米罗、里克尔梅和加西亚。前者很有可能第一次出场，因为加亚有点小问题，但他仍然在大名单中。法蒂的缺席将给破纪录的巴塞罗那少年亚马尔提供一个展示他“魔力”的机会。他无疑是个天才，但老实说，他还只是个孩子，经验还很不足。在我看来，保罗·托雷斯是一个被高估的球员，但他可以利用拉波特缺阵的优势。预计塞浦路斯将以10人甚至全部11人防守——主要依靠快速反击、角球、任意球——或者可能的点球将球打进。我希望他们继续战斗，即使他们最终落后3个甚至4个球。西班牙队在这里的控球率肯定很高，我担心这场比赛不会是一场很有趣的比赛。我也预演了很多其他的比赛，可能是南美的比赛，尤其是哥伦比亚对巴西的比赛，北京时间周五的比赛将为足球爱好者和严肃的投注者提供更好的比赛。然而，我们的目标是盈利，这就是为什么我写了这篇深入的分析!最有可能的结果是0比3。

好运！