Lille vs Toulouse

Lille welcome Toulouse for this French Ligue 1 round 12 clash at Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve d'Ascq) late Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the fifth-best league in Europe. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of better average level by the Ligue 1 standards here. More importantly, my fans and I have done well betting on this league! We have yet another very interesting betting opportunity here. Lille are the better team here, there is no doubt about this fact. However, very often in sports betting the smart idea is to bet on the underdogs. The biggest bookies who offer the largest stake limits see the hosts as big favourites here. Indeed, the odds on them to send the visitors home empty-handed are only around 1.60. We will take the Toulouse +1.5 goals handicap option with an over 70% chance of winning. However, I would not be overly surprised even if Toulouse were to win this game. Lile currently occupy the 5th place in the standings with 19 points in their pocket. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is lower – 16.45 to be precise. Taking into account how lame their offense has been so far it is rather surprising that they are in 5th place. Indeed, they have scored only 14 goals in Ligue 1. Their number of expected goals (xG) is only marginally bigger. They have lacked speed and creativity near the opponent's goal in many games so far this season. Their defence has been well-structured and solid but I need to mention that many of their defenders have played above their normal level this season – this cannot go on forever. Lille have conceded 10 goals and their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 13.02.

Toulouse, on the other hand, currently occupy the 14th place in the standings. However, they are in 11th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible starting eleven. Lille, on the other hand, are in 6th place in this ranking. Toulouse have 11 points to their account but their number of xPTS is a higher - 13.34. They have scored 12 goals and their number of xG is almost as high as that of the hosts'. Defensively the hosts do have a clear edge with the expected lineups but the difference in their favour is still much smaller than the bookies seem to estimate. In their last game Toulouse beat one of the best clubs in Europe, Liverpool, 3-2 at home in an UEFA Europa League group stage clash. Toulouse were massive underdogs in this game, priced around 6.50 to win by the bookies. Liverpool had 65% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts – 19-11. Toulouse, however, recorded more shots on goal. Both teams generated 1.09 in xG. What a huge boost this massive win must be to Toulouse! Lille, on the other hand, travelled to Slovakia and to face Slovan Bratislava in an UEFA Europa Conference League. It was a 1-1 draw despite Lille being very clear favourites on the betting market. Lille had 69% ball possession but both teams recorded three shots on goal. Bratislava generated marginally more in xG – 1.21-1.19 to be precise. Before this Lille were lame offensively away from home against Marseille but took a point through a 0-0 draw. Lille had just one shot on goal and 0.27 in xG.

里尔vs图卢兹

北京时间周日晚，里尔欢迎图卢兹参加在皮埃尔-莫罗伊球场(维伦纽夫-阿斯克)举行的法甲第12轮比赛。这是欧洲第五好的联赛。足球迷和我们这些认真的、渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待一场比法甲平均水平更高的比赛。更重要的是，我的球迷和我都很看好这个联赛!我们还有另一个非常有趣的赌博机会。里尔在这里是一支更好的球队，这是毫无疑问的事实。然而，在体育博彩中，通常明智的做法是把赌注押在弱者身上。提供最大赌注限制的最大博彩公司将东道主视为这里的大热门。事实上，他们让游客空手而归的几率只有1.60左右。我们将选择图卢兹+1.5个进球障碍选项，胜率超过70%。然而，即使图卢兹赢得这场比赛，我也不会太惊讶。莱尔目前在积分榜上以19分排名第五。然而，它们的期望值(xPTS)较低，准确地说是16.45。考虑到他们的进攻到目前为止有多差劲，他们排在第五位是相当令人惊讶的。事实上，他们在法甲联赛中只进了14球。他们的预期目标数量(xG)只是稍微大一点。本赛季到目前为止，他们在很多比赛中都缺乏在对手球门附近的速度和创造力。他们的防守结构很好，很稳固，但我需要提到的是，他们的许多后卫本赛季的表现都超出了他们的正常水平——这种情况不可能永远持续下去。里尔已经丢了10个球，他们的预期失球数(xGA)是13.02。

另一方面，图卢兹目前排名第14位。然而，他们在我的实力排名中排名第11位，这反映了球队的纯粹等级，他们拥有最好的首发11人。另一方面，里尔在该排名中排名第六。图卢兹有11分，但他们的得分更高，为13.34分。他们进了12个球，他们的球员数量几乎和东道主一样多。在防守端，东道主在预期的阵容上确实有明显的优势，但他们的优势仍然比博彩公司估计的要小得多。在欧联杯小组赛的最后一场比赛中，图卢兹主场3-2击败了欧洲最好的俱乐部之一利物浦。图卢兹队在这场比赛中处于劣势，博彩公司开出的胜率在6.50左右。利物浦的控球率为65%，进球次数也更多——19胜11负。然而，图卢兹的射门次数更多。两支球队在xG中都产生了1.09。这场巨大的胜利对图卢兹来说一定是一个巨大的鼓舞!另一方面，里尔前往斯洛伐克，在欧联杯联赛中面对布拉迪斯拉发队。尽管里尔在博彩市场上是非常明显的热门，但双方还是以1比1战平。里尔队有69%的控球率，但两队都有3次射门。布拉迪斯拉发在xG - 1.21-1.19中产生更多。在此之前，里尔在客场对阵马赛的比赛中进攻乏力，但最终以0-0战平了一分。里尔只有一次射正，射门0.27。