Paris FC VS Bastia

Paris FC welcome Bastia for this French Ligue 2 round 14 battle at Stade Charlety early Sunday morning Beijing time. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of slightly better than average level by the Ligue 1 standards here. More importantly, my fans and I have done very well betting on this league! Indeed, we have won six picks in a row in Ligue 1. We have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity here! Indeed, the biggest bookies that accept the biggest bets from customers see the hosts as clear favourites! This is, based on my strongly data-based analysis expert incorrect! The odds on Bastia to win are around 1.95 at the time of writing this analysis early Saturday morning Beijing time. I would not be at least surprised to see the odds on Bastia dropping before the kick off as smart money is expected to pile up on them. Let's see why I recommend a bet on Bastia with the +0.5 goals handicap option. The chance of winning – again – is 63%

Last season Bastia did better than Paris FC – finishing in 4th place with a fine 60 points to their account. Their number of expected points (xPTS) was higher though – 64.12 to be precise. The hosts, on the other hand, ended up in 7th place with 55 points – their xPTS was 51.24. Not that much has changed from last season. The teams last locked horns in March and Bastia won 1-0 away from home after a fine performance. They had only 35% ball possession but recorded more scoring attempts (14-9), shots on and off target than Paris. At the moment Bastia are in 11th place in the standings with 16 points. Their number of xPTS is 19.12. I have not been fully satisfied with their offense so far – they have netted the ball 14 times so far. However, they have the skilled and talented offensive players to improve in this area of the game – perhaps even significantly! I also trust their coach a lot. Their number of expected goals is 17.98. Bastia had a bad streak in September – losing four games in a row but had also quite a lot of bad luck.. However, lately they have been in much better form and have looked confident on the pitch. Indeed, they have not lost any of their last four games. In their last game they beat the biggest team in this league in terms of players estimated total market value – according to Transfermarkt.com. Indeed, Bastia were much better than Bordeaux – winning 3-1 – despite being clear underdogs on the betting market, priced around 3.70 to win. This was yet another example of them being undervalued by the bookies. Bastia based their strategy mainly on counter attacks – something they are good at – and had only 41% ball possession. Even so, they recorded many more goal attempts (16-11), shots on goal (7-2) as well as shots off goal – 7-4. They generated 1.56 in xG and defended very well! Bordeaux managed just 0.27 in xG! Before this they played a goalless draw at home as narrow underdogs against Guingamp, a dangerous team who are currently in 4th place.

Paris FC have been a rather big disappointment so far this season. They have only 14 points in their pocket and I have lowered their power rating from my in-depth preseason analysis. This rating reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible starting eleven. They occupy the 15th place in the standings with and are in the 14th place in my power rating. Bastia, on the other hand, are in 6th place in this rating. Paris have scored 15 goals and their number of xG is 13.56. They have conceded the same number of goals as Bastia but the hosts number of xGA is 21.34. Indeed, their defensive structure is not great and silly individual mistakes do happen.. They beat St. Etienne in their last game 1-0 away from home. However, the match could easily have gone either way. The hosts had 55% ball possession and recorded more total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Paris FC did have more goal attempts though - 15-11 to be precise. The bookies seem to have overreacted to this win. Before this they faced Troyes at home as clear favourites – priced around 1.85-1.90 to win by the bookies. Both teams recorded three shots on goal and Troyes could have won the game.. This team are in 16th place in the standings. Not a great performance from Paris FC as a whole.. The home advantage is, of course, there but Paris FC do not have very good fans. Moreover, they have not won any of their last three matches at this stadium.

巴黎FC VS巴斯蒂亚

北京时间周日凌晨，巴黎足球俱乐部在查理蒂球场欢迎巴斯蒂亚参加法甲联赛第14轮的比赛。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的足球投注者可以期待一场比法甲平均水平略高的比赛。更重要的是，我的球迷和我在这个联赛上的投注都做得很好!事实上，我们已经在法甲联赛中连续六次获得选秀权。我们还有另一个非常有利可图的赌博机会!事实上，那些接受客户最大赌注的最大博彩公司认为东道主是最受欢迎的!这是，基于我的强数据分析专家不正确的!在北京时间周六凌晨撰写这篇分析时，巴斯蒂亚获胜的赔率约为1.95。如果看到巴斯蒂亚的赔率在开球前下降，我至少不会感到惊讶，因为聪明的钱预计会堆积在他们身上。让我们看看为什么我建议用+0.5个进球的障碍选项赌巴斯蒂亚。再一次，获胜的几率是63%

上赛季巴斯蒂亚的表现比巴黎FC好，他们以60分的积分排名第四。他们的期望值(xPTS)更高，准确地说是64.12。另一方面，东道主以55分排名第七，他们的xPTS为51.24分。和上个赛季相比并没有太大的变化。两队上一次交锋是在3月份，当时巴斯蒂亚表现出色，在客场1-0取胜。他们只有35%的控球率，但得分次数(14-9)、射正和射偏都比巴黎多。目前，巴斯蒂亚以16分排在积分榜第11位。它们的xPTS数是19.12。到目前为止，我对他们的进攻还不是很满意，他们已经把球打进了14次。然而，他们有技术和天赋的进攻球员，在这个领域的比赛，甚至可能显著提高!我也很信任他们的教练。他们的预期进球数是17.98。巴斯蒂亚在9月份表现不佳，连输4场，但运气也很差。然而，最近他们的状态好多了，在球场上看起来很自信。事实上，他们在过去的四场比赛中没有输过一场。根据Transfermarkt.com的数据，在上一场比赛中，他们击败了联赛中球员估计总市值最大的球队。事实上，巴斯蒂亚的表现比波尔多好得多——以3-1获胜——尽管在博彩市场上，巴斯蒂亚的胜率在3.70左右，显然处于劣势。这是他们被博彩公司低估的又一个例子。巴斯蒂亚的战术主要基于反击——这是他们擅长的——并且只有41%的控球率。即便如此，他们的进球次数(16-11)、射正次数(7-2)和射偏次数(7-4)都要多得多。他们在xG中产生了1.56，防守非常好!波尔多在xG中仅获得0.27分。在此之前，他们以微弱劣势在主场与目前排名第四的危险球队甘冈队踢了一场0比0的平局。

本赛季到目前为止，巴黎足球俱乐部一直很令人失望。他们的口袋里只有14分，我在季前赛的深入分析中降低了他们的力量评级。这个排名反映了球队的纯粹等级，有最好的首发11人。他们在我的权力评级中排名第15位，排名第14位。另一方面，巴斯蒂亚在这一评级中排名第六。巴黎进了15球，他们的进球数是13.56。他们丢的球和巴斯蒂亚一样多，但东道主的进球是21.34个。的确，他们的防守结构不太好，个人愚蠢的失误时有发生。他们在上一场客场1-0击败了圣艾蒂安。然而，这场比赛本来可以很容易地走向任何一方。主队有55%的控球率，记录了更多的总传球、完成传球、进攻和危险进攻。巴黎FC的进球次数确实更多，准确地说是15胜11负。博彩公司似乎对这场胜利反应过度了。在此之前，他们在主场面对特鲁瓦，显然是夺冠热门——博彩公司开出的胜率在1.85-1.90左右。两队都有3次射正，特鲁瓦本来可以赢得比赛的。这支球队在积分榜上排名第16位。从整体上看，巴黎FC的表现并不好。当然，主场优势是存在的，但是巴黎足球俱乐部没有很好的球迷。此外，他们在这个球场的最近三场比赛中没有赢过一场。