Paris Saint Germain (PSG) VS AC Milan

PSG and AC Milan lock horns in this UEFA Champions League Group F round 3clash at Parc des Princes early Thursday morning Beijing time. A total of six rounds will be played. The stakes are high as all teams still have a good chance of making it to the top-2 - consequently qualifying for the Playoffs next spring. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a very high-level game here even by the Champions League standards. Newcastle top the standings with four points, Paris have three points to their account, Milan have two points and Dortmund have grabbed one point. Milan have started the Champions League with two goalless draws. They were the better team in the first round at home against Newcastle but lacked offensive creativity and passing accuracy at critical moments. Newcastle had an excellent chance to score – and win late into the second half. Against Dortmund in the second round, they were quite disappointing. Dortmund had 57% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts (18-4), shots on goal, shots off target, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. In the Italian Serie A they have 21 points to their account. However, I want to highlight that their number of expected points (xPTS) is “only” 14.90 points. They have scored 21 goals in this league so far, but their number of expected goals (xG) is significantly lower. Milan currently occupy the second half in the Serie A. They are in 4th place in my power rating. This rating reflects the teams’ pure class with the best possible lineup. Milan did well in the Champions League last season, beating Napoli in the Playoffs, and this probably still affects the odds here as tens of millions of fans and bettors remember this. I want to remind my fans that Milan were lucky against Napoli in the Play Offs but were clearly outplayed by Inter Milan in the next round. PSG, on the other hand, are in 3rd place in the Ligue 1 and their season has been a slight disappointment – know denying that. However, they have potential for massive improvement. They have taken 18 points but their number of xPTS is 22.32. This is the highest number in Ligue 1.

Players like the French World Champion from 2018, Kylian Mbappe, one of the best players in the world will surely cause Milan’s defence a lot of problems! He is extremely fast and some of Milan’s defensive players are not quick to match his – or some other PSG players’ speed and individual skill. Mbappe has scored six of his previous nine Champions League home goals within the opening 25 minutes. Let's also remember that he netted the ball three times against Argentina in the World Cup final last December! AC Milan do not have players of his caliber in offense.. According to a well-known and respected German website, PSG are the much bigger club here. Indeed, their players have an estimated market value of a whopping 1.07 billion euros. The AC Milan squad is valued at around 543 million which is clearly too high. I would say that 400-405 million would be a more realistic number. PSG have often struggled on the road in the Champions League in recent years but have been strong in Paris. In the opening round they easily beat Dortmund 2-0 after recording 2.43 in xG – the German visitors managed just 0.49. They also had 65% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts, shots off goal, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. In the second round they were humiliated in Newcastle losing 1-4 despite 59% ball possession. Newcastle played an amazing game, much better than usual. PSG did not seem to be 100% ready mentally to face the fired-up Newcastle players and fans which is, of course, unacceptable! However, Newcastle were favourites in this game – priced around 2.40 to win by the bookies. Almiron scored the 1-0 goal in the 17th minute, and it was 2-0 at halftime. Newcastle did deserve to win but the final score is still very misleading! Indeed, PSG recorded many more corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks. Newcastle also generated only marginally more in xG – 1.04-1.01 to be precise. PSG were heavily criticized in the football media after this game, and it seems the result affects the odds too much here. Odds of around 1.75 are widely available on PSG to win and this is enough for us to bet on! PSG have one of the best fans in Europe and have a 63.50% chance of taking all three points here! They have now won two games in a row - scoring a total of six goals. In their last game they did not give Strasbourg any chance at all and won 3-0. They had 77% ball possession and generated 2.67 in xG – the visitors managed just 0.23 and one shot on target. I need to mention that Strasbourg are not a bad team at all by pure class. PSG looked confident and relaxed in this game. AC Milan lost to Juventus at home on Sunday 0-1 but received a red card in the 40th minute. However, they did not impress me even before this and generated only 0.24 in xG in this match!

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巴黎圣日耳曼VS AC米兰

北京时间周四凌晨，巴黎圣日耳曼和AC米兰将在王子公园球场进行欧冠F组第3轮比赛。比赛共进行6轮。赌注很高，因为所有球队仍然有很好的机会进入前二，从而有资格参加明年春天的季后赛。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场非常高水平的比赛，即使以冠军联赛的标准来看也是如此。纽卡斯尔积4分排名第一，巴黎积3分，米兰积2分，多特蒙德积1分。米兰以两场0比0的平局开始了欧冠联赛。他们在第一轮主场对阵纽卡斯尔的比赛中表现得更好，但在关键时刻缺乏进攻创造力和传球准确性。纽卡斯尔有一个绝佳的得分机会，并在下半场最后阶段取得了胜利。在第二轮对阵多特蒙德的比赛中，他们表现得很令人失望。多特蒙德控球率为57%，进球次数(18-4次)、射正次数、射偏次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都比多特蒙德多。在意甲联赛中，他们有21分。然而，我想强调的是，他们的预期点数(xPTS)“只有”14.90分。到目前为止，他们在联赛中打进了21球，但他们的预期进球数(xG)明显较低。米兰目前占据了意甲的下半场，他们在我的能量评级中排名第四。这一排名反映了球队拥有最佳阵容的纯粹等级。米兰上赛季在欧冠联赛中表现出色，在季后赛中击败了那不勒斯，这可能仍然影响着这里的赔率，因为数以千万计的球迷和投注者都记得这一点。我想提醒我的球迷，米兰在附加赛中对阵那不勒斯是幸运的，但在下一轮显然被国际米兰打败了。另一方面，巴黎圣日耳曼在法甲排名第三，他们的赛季有点令人失望——我要否认这一点。然而，它们有巨大的改进潜力。虽然他们拿到了18分，但是他们的得分是22.32分。这是法甲联赛中最高的数字。

像2018年法国世界杯冠军姆巴佩这样的球员，他是世界上最好的球员之一，肯定会给米兰的防守带来很多问题!他的速度非常快，米兰的一些防守球员的速度赶不上他，或者其他一些巴黎圣日耳曼球员的速度和个人技术。姆巴佩在此前的9个欧冠主场进球中，有6个是在开场25分钟内打进的。别忘了，在去年12月的世界杯决赛中，他在对阵阿根廷的比赛中三次破门!AC米兰在进攻端没有他这样的球员。根据德国一家知名且受人尊敬的网站，巴黎圣日耳曼是这里更大的俱乐部。事实上，他们的球员的市场价值估计高达10.7亿欧元。AC米兰队的价值约为5.43亿美元，这显然太高了。我认为4 - 4.05亿是一个更现实的数字。近年来，巴黎圣日耳曼在欧冠赛场上经常表现不佳，但在巴黎却表现强劲。在首轮比赛中，他们以2.43的进球轻松击败多特蒙德，而德国客队仅取得0.49的进球。他们也有65%的控球率，并且记录了更多的射门次数、射门次数、角球次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数。在第二轮比赛中，尽管控球率高达59%，他们还是被纽卡斯尔羞辱了1-4。纽卡斯尔踢了一场精彩的比赛，比平时好多了。面对激动的纽卡斯尔球员和球迷，巴黎圣日耳曼似乎没有100%做好心理准备，这当然是不可接受的!然而，纽卡斯尔在这场比赛中是最受欢迎的——博彩公司开出的胜率约为2.40英镑。阿尔米隆在第17分钟打进了1-0的进球，半场结束时比分是2-0。纽卡斯尔确实应该获胜，但是最后的比分仍然很容易误导人!事实上，巴黎圣日耳曼创造了更多的角球、进攻和危险进攻。准确地说，纽卡在xG - 1.04-1.01赛季的进球数也只比纽卡多一点点。这场比赛之后，巴黎圣日耳曼受到了足球媒体的严厉批评，似乎比赛结果对赔率的影响太大了。在巴黎圣日耳曼获胜的赔率约为1.75，这足以让我们下注!巴黎圣日耳曼拥有欧洲最好的球迷之一，他们有63.50%的机会在这里拿到全部三分!他们已经连续赢了两场比赛，总共进了6个球。在上一场比赛中，他们没有给斯特拉斯堡任何机会，最终以3比0获胜。他们有77%的控球率，全场射门2.67次，而客队只有0.23次射门和1次射正。我需要提一下斯特拉斯堡

从纯粹的级别来看，我们根本不是一支糟糕的球队。巴黎圣日耳曼在这场比赛中看起来很自信和放松。AC米兰在周日主场0-1不敌尤文图斯，但在第40分钟收到了红牌。然而，在此之前，他们并没有给我留下深刻的印象，在这场比赛中只产生了0.24的xG !