Brescia vs Modena

Brescia welcome Modena for this Italian Serie B round 1 battle at Stadio Mario Rigamonti. However, in reality, Brecia have played seven matches and Modena nine games so far. This league is one of the best first tiers in the world. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of mediocre level by the Serie B standards here. Brescia currently occupy the 7th place in the standings with a total of 13 points to their account. I must admit that they have surprised me positively so far this season! I have, as a result, raised their power rating from the in-depth preseason analysis. This rating reflects the teams’ pure class with the best possible starting eleven. Last season Brescia were abysmal and ended up in 16th place with just 40 points in their pocket. They were forced to fight for their place in this league in the Serie B Play Out. I did expect them to be better this season but there is no reason to believe in a big improvement. They will almost certainly drop down in the standings as the season progresses.. Modena, on the other hand, finished in 10th place last season with 48 points. I want to highlight the fact that Brescia have been very lucky this season in terms of expected points (xPTS). They would have deserved just 10.12. Their surprisingly strong early season has been mainly based on very solid defence. Indeed, it has a very good structure and many of Brecia’s defenders and midfielders have played above their normal level so far and this, of course, cannot go for much longer. Quite amazingly, they have conceded only two goals in the Serie B so far! Despite the good defence I want to mention that this number is still misleading. Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 5.78. Being defensive has, unsurprisingly, hurt their offense and they have netted the ball just six times in this league.

Modena, on the other hand, currently occupy the 10th place and they, too, have taken 13 points. Their number of xPTS is 15.33 and can improve in all areas of the game. I also trust their coach a lot. They have scored eight goals, but their number of xG is 10.11. They have been unlucky also in terms of xGA as they have conceded eight goals but their number of xGA is 7.34. The biggest bookies with the largest stake limits see this match as more or less a coin toss – without an actual favourite – offering both teams odds of around 2.80 to take all three points. Based on my strongly data-based analysis Modena deserve to be solid favourites with a 39% chance of winning. We will, however, take the Modena +0.5 goals handicap option in this game with a low goal expectancy. Brescia have won just one of their last five games. This win came three days ago away from home over Ternana away from home. They did play pretty well in this game, no denying that. Ternana, however, played much below their normal level. Brescia generated 0.67 and Ternana 0.54 in xG in this match. Modena played a 1-1 draw in their last game. It was a challenging away match against a dangerous team, Bari. This match could have easily gone either way. Modena had 52% ball possession and recorded one shot on goal. Bari had one more goal attempt. Before this they had some bad luck in several games. For example, on the 30th of September they lost to Venezia 1-3 at home despite generating 1.33 in xG – Venezia managed just 0.29!

布雷西亚vs摩德纳

布雷西亚欢迎摩德纳参加在里加蒙蒂球场举行的意甲第一轮比赛。然而，事实上，布雷西亚和摩德纳已经分别打了7场和9场比赛。这个联赛是世界上最好的一线联赛之一。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以乙级标准衡量的中等水平的比赛。布雷西亚目前以13分的积分排在积分榜第7位。我必须承认，这个赛季到目前为止，他们给了我很大的惊喜!因此，在季前赛的深入分析中，我提高了他们的能量评级。这个排名反映了球队的纯粹等级，有最好的首发11人。上赛季布雷西亚表现糟糕，仅以40分的成绩排在第16位。他们被迫在乙级比赛中为自己在这个联赛中的位置而战。我确实期待他们这个赛季会变得更好，但是没有理由相信他们会有很大的进步。随着赛季的进行，他们的排名几乎肯定会下降。另一方面，摩德纳上赛季以48分排名第10。我想强调的是，布雷西亚本赛季在预期积分方面非常幸运。他们应该只得到10.12分。他们赛季初出人意料的强大主要是基于非常稳固的防守。事实上，这支球队的结构非常好，布雷西亚的许多后卫和中场球员都发挥得比正常水平高，当然，这种情况不会持续太久。令人惊讶的是，到目前为止他们在乙级联赛中只丢了两个球!尽管有很好的辩护，但我想指出的是，这个数字仍然具有误导性。他们的预期进球数(xGA)是5.78。毫无疑问，防守伤害了他们的进攻，他们在这个联盟中只有6次进球。

另一方面，摩德纳目前排在第10位，他们也得到了13分。他们的得分是15.33，在比赛的各个方面都有提高。我也很信任他们的教练。他们已经进了8个球，但是他们的进球数是10.11。他们的xGA也不太走运，虽然他们丢了8个球，但是他们的xGA是7.34。拥有最大赌注限制的最大博彩公司将这场比赛或多或少视为一场掷硬币的比赛——没有真正的热门——给两支球队提供2.80左右的赔率来获得全部三分。根据我强烈的数据分析，摩德纳应该是最受欢迎的球队，有39%的获胜机会。然而，我们将在本场比赛中采用摩德纳+0.5进球障碍选项，进球期望较低。布雷西亚在最近五场比赛中只赢了一场。这场胜利是三天前客场战胜特尔纳纳的。不可否认，他们在这场比赛中确实打得很好。然而，特尔纳纳的表现远远低于他们的正常水平。在本场比赛中，布雷西亚和特尔纳纳分别取得了0.67和0.54的进球。摩德纳在上一场比赛中1-1战平。这是一场具有挑战性的客场比赛，对手是一支危险的球队，巴里。这场比赛本来可以很容易地走向任何一方。摩德纳有52%的控球率，射门1次。巴里还有一次射门机会。在此之前，他们在几场比赛中运气不佳。例如，9月30日，他们在主场1-3输给了威尼斯，尽管在xG比赛中他们只进了1.33球，而威尼斯只进了0.29球!