Stade Lavallois MFC VS Saint Etienne

Laval welcome St. Etienne at Stade Francis Le Basser for this Ligue 2 battle early Tuesday morning Beijing time. This is the second tier of French football. The level of this league is mediocre by European standards. Football fans and us serious football bettors can expect a match of better-than-average level by this league’ standards. Most of my fans probably know by now that I never let the league table fool me! First, I want to mention that there is a massive difference in terms of financial resources, historical success and especially players' estimated total market value between these two teams. St. Etienne are a traditional Ligue 1 club – Laval definitely are not! I see St. Etienne having a good chance of being promoted back to the first tier for next season. According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the visitors’ squad has a market value of only around 33 million euros which is still too low in my expert opinion. I would say that 35 million would be a more realistic number! The Laval squad, on the other hand, has a total market value of around 9 million which is slightly too low in my expert opinion. Last season Laval were poor and finished in the 15th place in this league with a total of 20 clubs. They were only four points from four points from relegation to the third level! Their score difference was poor – 44:56 to be precise. At least on paper they are not significantly stronger this season.. St. Etienne, on the other hand, disappointed me - and probably many other professional football bettors – as well as their own fans by finishing only in the 8th points with 53 points to their account. Laval, rather amazingly, top the Ligue 2 standings at the moment! It is very hard to understand how this can even be possible. Yes, they have improved from last season but I do not have them in the top-8 in my power rating that reflects the teams’ pure class with the best possible starting eleven. They have 25 points in their pocket, but their number of expected points (xPTS) is only 19.34.

The hosts have scored 13 goals but have been only marginally lucky in terms of expected goals (xG). Their solid defence has definitely surprised me - they have conceded just five goals in this league so far! However, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 9.12. Many of their defenders and midfielders have played clearly above their normal level so far and this cannot go on endlessly! St. Etienne, too, have defended very well and have a great defensive structure. Most of their defenders are really skilled for this level. Silly individual mistakes are very few. Their offense has lacked creativity in some games, but they have immense potential to improve in this area of the game! They have scored just 10 goals in this league so far but their number of xG is 15.12. St. Etienne’s potential as a whole is one of the key rationales behind this pick. They have an excellent coach whom I trust a lot. The biggest bookies with the largest stake limits see Laval as favourites here but this is incorrect! They do not have the best fans by the Ligue 2 standards - not even close. Yes, the home advantage is there but St. Etienne should still be slim favourites in this probably pretty low-scoring game. We will go with the St. Etienne +0.5 goals handicap option here. They have not lost any of their last eight matches. In their most recent game they faced AC Ajaccio, a dangerous team, at home and it was a goalless draw. However, St. Etienne recorded many more goal attempts, attacks and dangerous attacks. Before this they won four games in a row and allowed just one goal in these matches! Laval, too, have achieved strong results lately but have had a lot of luck in many games. In their last game they faced Bordeaux away from home and “robbed” a 1-0 win with 28% ball possession. Bordeaux were the much better team in this game and recorded many more goal attempts (18-7), shots on goal, shots off target, corner kicks, attacks and especially dangerous attacks - 58-22. What a lucky win it was for Laval!

拉瓦瓦VS圣艾蒂安

北京时间周二凌晨，拉瓦尔在弗朗西斯勒巴塞球场欢迎圣埃蒂安参加这场法甲联赛。这是法国足球的第二梯队。按照欧洲的标准，这个联赛的水平是中等的。足球迷和我们这些认真的足球投注者可以期待一场高于联赛平均水平的比赛。我的大多数粉丝现在可能都知道，我从不让积分榜欺骗我!首先，我想说的是，这两支球队在财政资源、历史成就，尤其是球员的估计总市场价值方面存在巨大差异。圣艾蒂安是传统的法甲俱乐部——拉瓦尔绝对不是!我认为圣艾蒂安很有可能在下个赛季升回甲级联赛。根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，客队的市场价值只有3300万欧元左右，在我看来还是太低了。我想说3500万是一个更现实的数字!另一方面，拉瓦尔队的总市场价值约为900万，在我的专家看来，这有点太低了。上赛季拉瓦尔很差，在这个联赛中排名第15位，总共有20个俱乐部。他们距离降级到第三级只差4分了!他们的得分差距很小，准确地说是44:56。至少从纸面上看，他们这个赛季并没有明显的强大。另一方面，圣艾蒂安让我失望了——可能还有许多其他职业足球投注者——还有他们自己的球迷，他们只拿到了第8分，只拿到了53分。拉瓦尔，相当令人惊讶，目前在法甲排名第一!很难理解这是怎么可能的。是的，他们比上赛季有了进步，但我并没有把他们列入我的力量评级前8名，这反映了球队的纯粹等级，有最好的首发11人。他们的口袋里有25分，但他们的期望积分(xPTS)只有19.34分。

东道主已经进了13个球，但在预期进球数(xG)方面只是略微幸运。他们坚实的防守绝对让我吃惊——他们在联赛中到目前为止只丢了5个球!然而，他们的预期进球数(xGA)是9.12。到目前为止，他们的许多后卫和中场球员的表现都明显高于他们的正常水平，这种情况不可能永远持续下去!圣艾蒂安也防守得很好，有一个伟大的防御结构。他们的大多数防守者都是这个级别的高手。愚蠢的个人错误很少。他们的进攻在一些比赛中缺乏创造力，但他们在这方面有很大的潜力可以提高!到目前为止，他们在联赛中只进了10球，但他们的xG数是15.12。圣艾蒂安的整体潜力是这一选择背后的关键理由之一。他们有一位优秀的教练，我非常信任他。拥有最大赌注限制的最大博彩公司认为拉瓦尔是最受欢迎的，但这是不正确的!按照法甲的标准，他们没有最好的球迷——甚至差得远。是的，主场优势是存在的，但是圣艾蒂安在这场可能得分很低的比赛中仍然是微弱的热门。我们将选择圣艾蒂安+0.5球的障碍选项。他们在最近的八场比赛中没有输过一场。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场面对AC阿雅克肖，一支危险的球队，并且是一场0比0的平局。然而，圣艾蒂安记录了更多的进球尝试、进攻和危险的进攻。在此之前，他们四连胜，只丢了一个球!拉瓦尔最近也取得了不错的成绩，但在很多比赛中运气都很好。在上一场客场对阵波尔多的比赛中，他们以28%的控球率“抢”了一场1-0的胜利。波尔多在这场比赛中表现得更好，他们的进球次数(18胜7负)、射正、射偏、角球、进攻，尤其是危险的进攻——58胜22负。对拉瓦尔来说，这是一个多么幸运的胜利啊!