Barcelona VS Athletic Bilbao

Barcelona and Athletic Bilbao lock horns in this Spanish LaLiga round 10 battle at Estadio Olímpico early Monday morning Beijing time. This is the second-best league in the world, after the English Premier League. Football fans and us profit-hungry, serious bettors can expect a match of very good level between these good teams here. Most importantly, we have yet another great chance of extending the winning streak! Barcelona’s home stadium, Camp Nou, is under renovation at the moment – this is why the match is played at Estadio Olímpico. This lowers the home advantage, but it seems the betting market has not really given this enough emphasis. I have not been at Estadio Olímpico myself but watching on TV it seems the atmosphere at this stadium is in most games not even close to the ecstatic atmosphere at Camp Nou. Estadio Olímpico is not even an actual football stadium. Of course, the home advantage is still there though. I have Barca and Real Madrid as equally strong in my power ratings that reflect the teams’ pure class with the best possible starting eleven. However, Kounde (knee injury), Lewandowski (ankle), Pedri (thigh), Raphinha (hamstring), Roberto (foot) and de Jong (ankle) are all out due to injuries. These are massive absences and hurt Barcelona’s chances substantially. Lewandowski is still a world-class striker and has played a key role in Barcelona’s offense. Yes, the bookies are not idiots and have reacted to these absences – but not enough in my expert opinion. The visitors are expected to be missing only Y. Alvarez.

There are, of course, no bad or even mediocre players in the Barca squad but we must remember that Athletic Bilbao are a very dangerous team. Indeed, this team from the Basque country has played a strong season and currently occupy they 5th place in the standings. They have grabbed a total of 17 points. 5th also their place in my power rating. Last season they finished in 8th place but have looked considerably better this season! For some reason this team is pretty often underrated by the bookies. I want to highlight that they took “only” 50 points last season, but their number of expected points (xPTS) was 65.11! In the early season last season’s results still affect the odds to some extent. This season the visitors' number of xPTS is 18.02. They have netted the ball 16 times in LaLiga, but their number of expected goals (xG) is 18.45. Their defence has been extremely solid with an awesome structure and very few individual mistakes. Furthermore, their defenders – and sometimes even strikers actively take part in defending. They have conceded just nine goals in LaLiga, and their expected number of goals allowed (xGA) is even lower – 7.56 to be precise. Barca with the many absences will surely not find it easy to break the visitors’ defence here! I expect them to defend hard and allow Barca to control the ball for most of the 90 minutes – as they usually do. I see this match as a more low-scoring one than the bookies do – the probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 54%. I do not expect the visitors to drastically change their tactics even if they end up trailing by a margin of one goal. If Barca manages to take the 2-0 lead Athletic do have offensive power to score and get back into the game! We must also keep in mind that Barcelona have an important UEFA Champions League coming up on Wednesday and with the current situation they are in avoiding more injuries and getting too fatigued must be very important for Barca here. I do not expect them to be that hungry for scoring a big number of goals here. Yes, even with the absences Barca are the better team and deserve to be clear favourites here. Even so, the odds of around 1.65 offered on the home win are clearly too low! I see Barca having a 49% chance of sending the visitors home empty-handed. We will go with the safer Athletic Bilbao +1.5 handicap option with a 74% chance of winning!

Barcelona currently occupy the 3rd place in the standings with 21 points. Real Madrid and Girona (!) have taken more points than them. Barca’s number of xPTS is 19.23. They have, unsurprisingly, scored a lot of goals, 21, and their number of xG is even a little bigger. Now they are missing a lot of scoring power so the statistics should not be given too much emphasis. Their defence, on the other hand, has not fully convinced me – they have conceded 10 goals and their number of xGA is 11.02. In their most recent game they faced Granada away from home as huge favourites – priced around 1.40 to win on the betting market. Granada are a pretty bad team and were promoted to LaLiga for this season. Yes, they had a whopping 81% ball possession and generated much more than the hosts in xG but allowing Granada to score reflects their defensive weaknesses. Before this they beat Porto in the Champions League away from home 1-0 but this match could easily have gone either way. Porto, despite being heavy underdogs according to the bookies, even had more dangerous attacks (56-44) and shots on target. Barca did have one more goal attempt though. This is yet another example of Barca, one of the most popular teams in the world, being overvalued. They have not won any of their latest five games by a margin of more than one goal. On the 29th of September they took a hard-fought 1-0 home win over a disappointing Sevilla. Barca were priced at around 1.35 to win. Sevilla too had their chances and recorded 12 goal attempts and 1.23 in xG. Barca managed 1.95. Bilbao have been in fine form lately – losing just one and winning five of their last eight matches. This defeat happened on the 29th of last month away from home against Real Sociedad, another team from the Basque country. However, the final score is extremely misleading as Bilbao generated 1.89 in xG – the host managed just 1.24 but were very efficient. Moreover, Bilbao had 18 goal attempts – Sociedad’s number was eight. In their last game they completely dominated Almeria at home, winning 3-0. They recorded a whopping 23 goal attempts – the visitors had just four. Bilbao also dominated the goal attempts statistic – recording nine – Almeria had just one. Bilbao defended superbly – allowing Almeria just 0.08 in xG and generated 3.23 themselves. What a fine performance even taking into account that Almeria are a lowly team..

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巴塞罗那VS毕尔巴鄂竞技

北京时间周一凌晨，巴塞罗那和毕尔巴鄂竞技将在Olímpico球场展开西甲第10轮激战。这是世界上第二好的联赛，仅次于英超。球迷和我们这些渴望利润的严肃的赌徒可以期待这些优秀球队之间的一场非常高水平的比赛。最重要的是，我们还有一个延续连胜的好机会!巴塞罗那的主场诺坎普目前正在整修中，这就是比赛在Olímpico球场举行的原因。这降低了主场优势，但似乎博彩市场并没有真正给予足够的重视。我自己没有去过Olímpico球场，但从电视上看，这个球场的气氛似乎在大多数比赛中都无法接近诺坎普的狂喜气氛。Estadio Olímpico甚至不是一个真正的足球场。当然，主场优势依然存在。我认为巴萨和皇马在我的实力评分中同样强大，这反映了这两支球队的纯粹等级，他们拥有最好的首发11人。然而，孔德(膝伤)、莱万多夫斯基(脚踝)、佩德里(大腿)、拉菲尼哈(腿筋)、罗伯托(脚)和德容(脚踝)都因伤缺阵。这些都是大规模的缺阵，极大地伤害了巴塞罗那的机会。莱万多夫斯基仍然是一名世界级的前锋，在巴塞罗那的进攻中发挥了关键作用。是的，博彩公司不是傻瓜，他们对这些缺阵做出了反应——但在我的专家看来，还不够。预计访客只会失踪Y.阿尔瓦雷斯。

当然，巴萨阵容中没有糟糕的球员，甚至没有平庸的球员，但我们必须记住毕尔巴鄂竞技是一支非常危险的球队。事实上，这支来自巴斯克地区的球队打出了一个强劲的赛季，目前在积分榜上排名第五。他们一共得到了17分。他们在我的力量评级中排名第五。上赛季他们排在第8位，但本赛季看起来好多了!由于某些原因，这支球队经常被博彩公司低估。我想强调的是，他们上赛季“只”拿了50分，但他们的预期得分(xPTS)是65.11!上赛季初的结果在一定程度上仍然影响着赔率。本赛季访客的xPTS数量为18.02。虽然在西甲联赛中打进16球，但期望进球数(xG)为18.45球。他们的防守非常稳固，结构很棒，个人失误很少。此外，他们的后卫，有时甚至前锋积极参与防守。他们在西甲联赛只丢了9个球，他们的预期失球数(xGA)甚至更低，准确地说是7.56个。巴萨在这么多人缺阵的情况下，想要突破客队的防线肯定不容易!我希望他们能努力防守，让巴萨在90分钟的大部分时间里控制球——就像他们通常做的那样。我认为这场比赛比博彩公司认为的比分更低——总进球数少于2.5个的概率是54%。我不认为客队会彻底改变他们的战术，即使他们最终只落后一球。如果巴萨设法取得2-0的领先，竞技确实有进攻能力得分并重新进入比赛!我们必须记住，巴萨在周三有一场重要的欧冠比赛，在目前的情况下，他们要避免更多的伤病，避免过度疲劳，这对巴萨来说是非常重要的。我不认为他们在这里会渴望进很多球。是的，即使缺阵，巴萨仍然是一支更好的球队，理应成为夺冠热门。即便如此，主场获胜的1.65左右的赔率显然太低了!我认为巴萨有49%的机会让客队空手而归。我们将选择更安全的毕尔巴鄂竞技+1.5障碍选项，有74%的获胜机会!

巴萨目前以21分排名积分榜第三。皇马和赫罗纳比他们拿的分更多。巴萨的xPTS是19.23。不出所料，他们进了很多球，21，他们的xG数量甚至更多。现在他们失去了很多得分能力，所以数据不应该被过分强调。另一方面，他们的防守并没有让我完全信服——他们丢了10个球，他们的射门数是11.02。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场面对格拉纳达，这是一个巨大的热门，在博彩市场上的胜率约为1.40英镑。格拉纳达是一支相当糟糕的球队，本赛季升入了西甲。是的，他们拥有高达81%的控球率，并且创造了比东道主多得多的进球

但是让格拉纳达得分反映了他们防守的弱点。在此之前，他们在欧冠客场1-0击败了波尔图，但这场比赛很可能是两种结果。波尔图，尽管根据博彩公司的数据，他们处于劣势，但他们甚至有更多的危险进攻(56胜44负)和射正。不过巴萨还有一次射门机会。这是世界上最受欢迎的球队之一巴萨被高估的又一个例子。他们在最近的五场比赛中没有赢过一球以上的比赛。9月29日，他们在主场艰难地1-0战胜了令人失望的塞维利亚。巴萨的胜率在1.35英镑左右。塞维利亚也有机会，他们有12次射门和1.23次射门。巴萨取得1.95分。毕尔巴鄂最近状态不错，最近8场比赛只输了1场，赢了5场。这场失利发生在上个月29日客场对阵另一支来自巴斯克地区的球队皇家社会。然而，最终的比分极具误导性，因为毕尔巴鄂在xG中产生了1.89 -东道主只获得了1.24，但非常高效。此外，毕尔巴鄂有18次射门，而社会达只有8次。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场完全控制了阿尔梅里亚，3-0获胜。他们射门次数高达23次，而客队只有4次。毕尔巴鄂在进球次数统计上也占据主导地位，有9次，而阿尔梅里亚只有1次。毕尔巴鄂的防守非常出色，只给了阿尔梅里亚0.08分，而他们自己却创造了3.23分。多么好的表现，即使考虑到阿尔梅里亚是一支低级的球队。