FC Köln vs Mönchengladbach

FC Köln host Mönchengladbach for this German Bundesliga round 8 battle at RheinEnergieStadion late Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the third-best league on the planet. Football enthusiasts and us serious bettors who go for long-term profit cannot, unfortunately, expect a very high-level game by the Bundesliga standards here. Both teams have been disappointing so far this season. Last season the visitors finished in 10th place and Köln ended up in the 11th place. About a year ago Mönchengladbach humiliated Köln at home – winning 5-2 after a pretty dominant performance. In April at RheinEnergieStadion it was a 0-0 draw after a pretty balanced clash. Köln have been abysmal so far this season! Indeed, they have just one point to their account and have lost six of the seven matches in the Bundesliga! They have netted the ball just four times and have allowed a whopping 14 goals. It is hard to write anything positive about their performances so far. Yes, it is of course true that they are not among the worst teams in this league but are clearly very low in confidence at the moment. According to my sources their team spirit is also far from good. I have substantially lowered their power rating from the in-depth early season analysis. This rating reflects the teams’ pure class with the best possible starting lineup.

Köln’s number of expected points (xPTS) is 4.32 which is the lowest xPTS number in the Bundesliga. Yes, they can of course improve as the season progresses but might well have to fight hard to avoid relegation to the 2. Bundesliga. The bookies seem to give their potential way too much emphasis here. Indeed, the biggest bookmakers with the largest betting limits offer Köln odds of around 2.35 at the time of writing this preview Saturday afternoon Beijing time. However, I expect the visitors’ odds to drop before the kick off as smart money is expected to pile up on them. The home advantage is there, sure, but it is significantly lower than on average here. Köln have lost all their games at RheinEnergieStadion and their demanding fans have - totally understandably – been very frustrated with their team’s performances. I expect the atmosphere at the stadium to be far from ecstatic.. Who knows, perhaps the fans will even turn their back on their team. This could happen especially if the visitors take the lead and Köln. Köln do not seem to have much mental strength at the moment. Their defence has looked so vulnerable and individual mistakes have been common that I see us having a good chance of winning the recommended +0.5 goals handicap bet on Mönchengladbach even if the hosts manage to take the lead. In this scenario the visitors would surely put a lot of pressure on Köln’s shaky defence. Köln’s number of expected goals allowed is high – 15.45 to be precise.

The visitors should be narrow favourites here – based on my strongly data-based expert analysis. Their defence is not great either though - having allowed 16 goals in this league but their number of xGA is “only” 12.12. In terms of offensive quality, they have a substantial advantage. Indeed, Mönchengladbach have netted the ball 13 times but their number of expected goals (xG) is 15.34. I see this match as slightly more high scoring than the bookies do. Indeed, the probability of over 3.5 total goals to be scored is 48%. Köln have now lost four games in a row – allowing a total of 10 goals in these games! In their last game they had no chance to fight for points and lost to Bayer Leverkusen 0-3 away from home. The hosts recorded over 20 goal attempts. Moreover, they generated a massive 4.12 in xG! Before this they lost to Stuttgart 0-2 at home. The visitors fully deserved the three points after having 60% ball possession. They also generated 2.45 in xG – Köln’s number was just 1.21. The visitors have lost just one of their latest five games and have improved from early season. This loss came on the 23rd of September at home against a big team, RB Leipzig 0-1 as very clear underdogs. However, both teams generated 0.95 in xG and the hosts even had more goal attempts (13-8) and dangerous attacks. In their most recent game, they crushed St. Truiden, a Belgian team, 4-1 in a friendly match. Before this they were very unlucky not to win at home against Mainz. It was a 2-2 draw, but the hosts recorded 2.67 in xG – Mainz managed only 0.98. The visitors are currently in 12th place with six points in their pocket. However, they have been unlucky as a whole this season. Their number of xG is 10.89.

FC Köln vs Mönchengladbach

北京时间周日晚，FC Köln主场Mönchengladbach将在莱茵能源球场进行德甲第8轮比赛。这是世界上第三好的联赛。不幸的是，足球爱好者和我们这些追求长期利益的严肃投注者不能指望在这里看到一场德甲标准下的高水平比赛。本赛季到目前为止，这两支球队的表现都令人失望。上赛季客队排名第10,Köln排名第11。大约一年前，Mönchengladbach在主场羞辱了Köln，最终以5-2的优势获胜。今年4月在莱茵能源球场，两队在一场势均力敌的交锋后以0-0战平。Köln本赛季到目前为止一直很糟糕!事实上，他们只拿到1分，在德甲的7场比赛中输掉了6场!他们只进了4次球，丢了14个球。到目前为止，很难对他们的表现做出任何肯定的评价。是的，他们当然不是联赛中最差的球队之一，但显然他们现在信心很低。据我所知，他们的团队精神也很差。我已经从赛季早期的深度分析中大幅降低了他们的能量评级。这个排名反映了球队拥有最佳首发阵容的纯粹等级。

Köln的期望积分(xPTS)为4.32，是德甲最低的xPTS。是的，他们当然可以随着赛季的进展而进步，但很可能必须努力奋斗才能避免降级到乙级。德甲。博彩公司似乎过于强调他们的潜力了。事实上，在北京时间周六下午撰写本文时，拥有最大投注限额的最大博彩公司提供的Köln赔率约为2.35。然而，我预计客队的赔率会在开球前下降，因为人们预计会有大量资金押在客队身上。当然，主场优势是存在的，但明显低于这里的平均水平。Köln输掉了他们在莱茵能源球场的所有比赛，他们的球迷对球队的表现感到非常沮丧，这完全可以理解。我想体育场里的气氛远不是欣喜若狂。谁知道呢，也许球迷们甚至会背弃他们的球队。这可能会发生，特别是如果游客率先Köln。Köln此刻我似乎没有多少精神力量。他们的防守看起来很脆弱，个人失误也很常见，我认为我们很有可能赢得Mönchengladbach上建议的+0.5个进球的赔率赌注，即使东道主设法取得领先。在这种情况下，客队肯定会给Köln摇摇欲坠的防线施加很大的压力。Köln的预期进球数很高——准确地说是15.45个。

游客应该是狭窄的最爱在这里-基于我强烈的数据为基础的专家分析。他们的防守也不是很好，虽然在联赛中丢了16球，但他们的xGA数字“只有”12.12。在进攻质量方面，他们有很大的优势。虽然Mönchengladbach的进球次数为13次，但预期进球数(xG)为15.34个。我认为这场比赛比博彩公司认为的要高一些。事实上，进球总数超过3.5个的概率是48%。Köln已经连续输掉了四场比赛，在这些比赛中一共丢了10个球!在上一场比赛中，他们没有争取积分的机会，在客场0-3不敌勒沃库森。东道主的进球次数超过20次。此外，他们在xG中生成了4.12 !在此之前，他们在主场0-2输给了斯图加特。客队拥有60%的控球率，完全配得上三分。他们在xG中也产生了2.45，而Köln的数字只有1.21。客队最近五场比赛只输了一场，而且比赛季初有所进步。这场失利发生在9月23日的主场，对手是一支强大的球队，莱比锡RB 0-1显然是一支弱势球队。然而，两队的得分都为0.95，东道主甚至有更多的进球尝试(13-8)和危险的进攻。在最近的一场友谊赛中，他们以4比1击败了比利时的圣特鲁登队。在此之前，他们很不幸没能在主场战胜美因茨。双方以2比2战平，但东道主在世界杯上取得了2.67分，美因茨只取得了0.98分。客队目前以6分的成绩排在第12位。然而，他们整个赛季都很不走运。xG的值是10.89。