Osasuna vs Granada

Osasuna host Granada for this Spanish LaLiga round 10 clash at Estadio El Sadar in Pamplona early Saturday morning Beijing time. This is the second-best league on the planet, after the English Premier League. However, this match will probably not be of that great level by LaLiga standards. The main reason for this is that Granada are very limited team. They were promoted to this level from the LaLiga2 for this season and lack quality in all areas of the game. I expect them to be relegated back to the second tier for next season. They are in 19th place in my power rating that reflects the teams’ pure class with the best possible starting eleven. There are a total of 20 clubs playing in LaLiga. I also do not trust their coach too much. They did win the LaLiga2 last season but took 4.12 more points than they would have deserved in terms of expected points (xPTS). Osasuna, on the other hand, played a fine last season, finishing in 7th place with 53 points, a much bigger team, Atletico Bilbao. I do not expect them to do quite this well this season, but they can definitely climb up the standings from the current 12th place. They have taken 10 points so far but their number of xPTS is 11.87. There is a significant difference in financial resources and players estimated total market value. Indeed, according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, their squad has an estimated market value of around 117 million euros. This is too low though – four players are undervalued. The Granada squad is valued at only about 67 million – this a very low number by LaLiga standards.

Granada are an awful team away from home and have lost all three games on the road in this league this season. They seem to lack confidence to keep the ball and build up attacks in an organized way. Well, we could, of course, say they do not have skilled enough players to do this – especially against the top-teams or even against good teams – like Osasuna. Osasuna have not achieved too good results at Estadio El Sadar this season, but the home advantage is still massive here. On average LaLiga has one of the biggest home wins % in Europe long-term – excluding the matches played without fans due to the Covid-19 restrictions. Last season Osasuna won 11 of the 19 home games, in comparison Barcelona won 13/19 matches at Camp Nou. The biggest bookies with the largest stake limits offer Osasuna odds of around 1.85 to send the visitors home empty-handed at the time of writing this analysis Thursday afternoon Beijing time. This is more than I would have expected, and we will take it to try and extend the good winning streak. Based on my in-depth, strongly data-based expert analysis the hosts have a 62% chance of winning. Poor Granada have grabbed just six points so far and are in the 19th place. Their score difference is abysmal! Indeed, they have conceded a whopping 23 goals – only Almeria, the rock-bottom team, have allowed more goals – 24. Their expected number of goals allowed (xGA) is a little smaller though. Their offense does have some firepower though as they have netted the ball 15 times. However, this number is misleading as their number of expected goals (xG) is only 11.32. Osasuna have been a bit disappointing so far – no denying that. They have scored only nine goals and their number of xG is 11.23. They can definitely improve in this area of the game. Against the leaky Granada defence, I expect them to generate a good number in xG and I would not be surprised if they were to score even more than two goals here. Granada’s defenders make too many stupid individual mistakes and have looked quite fatigued in the second half in many games. Furthermore, their defensive structure is not good enough for this level.

In their latest game Osasuna did not have a true chance of fighting for points against Real Madrid away from home. “Los Blancos” were huge favourites, of course, in this match – priced around 1.25-1.30 to win by the bookies. They generated 3.06 in xG – Osasuna recorded 0.53 and had seven goal attempts. Before this Osasuna beat Alaves away from home. Weirdly, they were pretty clear underdogs in this game on the betting market – priced around 3.50 to win at the time of kick off. This is just another example of the bookies underestimating Osasuna! The match was a balanced one though. Both teams have three shots on goal and Alaves generated marginally more in xG – 1.23-1.21. Granada have taken three draws and lost three of their latest six games. Yes, they “robbed” a point from Barcelona in their latest match but had massive luck on their side. This result (2-2) probably affects the odds way too much here! Barcelona had a staggering 81% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (22-7), shots on goal (10-2), corner kicks (11-1), attacks and dangerous attacks (78-22). Moreover, they generated a whopping 3.67 in xG – Granada managed 0.53. Before this Granada defended very poorly but took a point from Almeria away from home. It was an entertaining but low-quality game where Almeria recorded a little more in xG.

GOOD LUCK!

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奥萨苏纳vs格拉纳达

北京时间周六凌晨，奥萨苏纳主场迎战格拉纳达，本场西甲第十轮比赛将在潘普洛纳的埃尔萨达尔球场进行。这是世界上第二好的联赛，仅次于英超联赛。然而，这场比赛可能不会达到西甲联赛的标准。主要原因是格拉纳达的阵容非常有限。他们本赛季是从西甲升入这个级别的，在比赛的各个方面都缺乏质量。我预计他们下赛季会被降回二级联赛。他们在我的力量排名中排名第19位，这反映了球队的纯粹等级，拥有最好的首发11人。西甲总共有20个俱乐部。我也不太相信他们的教练。上赛季他们确实赢得了西甲联赛，但以期望积分(xPTS)计算，他们比应得的多拿了4.12分。另一方面，奥萨苏纳上赛季踢得很好，以53分排名第7，这是一支更强大的球队，毕尔巴鄂竞技。我不期望他们本赛季能做得这么好，但他们绝对可以从目前的第12位上升。虽然拿到了10分，但他们的积分是11.87分。财务资源和参与者估计的总市值存在显著差异。事实上，根据德国一家知名且受人尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com，他们的球队的市场价值估计在1.17亿欧元左右。但这个数字太低了——有4名球员被低估了。格拉纳达队的身价仅为6700万美元——以西甲的标准来看，这是一个非常低的数字。

格拉纳达是一支糟糕的客场球队，本赛季他们在客场输掉了三场比赛。他们似乎缺乏控球和组织进攻的信心。当然，我们可以说，他们没有足够的技术球员来做到这一点——尤其是面对顶级球队，甚至是像奥萨苏纳这样的强队。奥萨苏纳本赛季在埃尔萨达尔球场没有取得太好的成绩，但主场优势仍然很大。平均而言，西甲联赛是欧洲长期主场胜率最高的比赛之一——不包括因新冠肺炎限制而没有球迷的比赛。上赛季奥萨苏纳赢得了19场主场比赛中的11场，相比之下，巴塞罗那在诺坎普赢得了13/19场比赛。在北京时间周四下午写这篇分析时，最大的博彩公司对奥萨苏纳开出了1.85左右的赔率，让访客空手而归。这超出了我的预期，我们将利用它来尝试延续良好的连胜纪录。根据我深入的，基于数据的专家分析东道主有62%的获胜机会。可怜的格拉纳达目前只拿到了6分，排在第19位。他们的分数差太大了!事实上，他们丢了23个球，只有垫底的阿尔梅里亚丢了24个球，比他们多。不过他们的预期进球(xGA)要小一些。他们的进攻确实有一些火力，尽管他们有15次进球。然而，这个数字具有误导性，因为他们的预期目标数量(xG)只有11.32。奥萨苏纳到目前为止有点令人失望，这是不可否认的。他们只进了9个球，他们的进球数是11.23。他们在这方面肯定可以提高。面对格拉纳达漏洞百出的防线，我希望他们能在xG上创造出不错的数字，如果他们能在这里进两个以上的球，我也不会感到惊讶。格拉纳达的后卫犯了太多愚蠢的个人错误，在很多比赛的下半场看起来都很疲惫。此外，他们的防御结构也不适合这个级别。

在最近一场客场对阵皇马的比赛中，奥萨苏纳并没有真正的机会去争取积分。当然，在这场比赛中，“白衣军团”是最受欢迎的球队——博彩公司开出的胜率在1.25-1.30左右。他们在比赛中创造了3.06个进球，奥萨苏纳创造了0.53个进球，并且有7次射门。在此之前，奥萨苏纳在客场击败了阿拉维斯。奇怪的是，在这场比赛中，他们在博彩市场上明显处于劣势——开球时的胜率约为3.50。这只是赌徒们低估奥萨苏纳的又一个例子!不过这场比赛是一场平衡的比赛。两支球队都有三次射门，阿拉维斯的射门略多，比分为1.23-1.21。格拉纳达最近6场比赛3平3负。是的，他们在最近一场比赛中“抢”了巴塞罗那的一分，但他们的运气很好。这个结果(2-2)可能对赔率影响太大了!巴萨的控球率达到了惊人的81%，而且还有更多

进球次数(22胜7负)、射正(10胜2负)、角球次数(11胜1负)、攻击和危险攻击次数(78胜22负)。此外，他们在xG取得了惊人的3.67分，而格拉纳达取得了0.53分。在此之前，格拉纳达防守很差，但在客场从阿尔梅里亚那里拿了一分。这是一款有趣但质量较低的游戏，Almeria在xG中录制了更多内容。

好运！