A good pick for the EURO's Qualifier!
2023-10-13

Borja

外籍分析师

欧预赛

10/14 02:45

已完赛

荷兰
1:0
法国
解读理由:

Due to the nature of the qualification campaign, there’s probably a good chance that the second-place finisher in Group B will be able to secure a berth through playoffs, but there are no guarantees.

France is in pole position to reach the Euros, hardly surprising given they have Kylian Mbappe in their ranks and reached the World Cup Final. The French team is sitting at the top of Group B with five wins from five, while the Dutch are second with three wins and a loss, having played one game less. They’re tied on nine points with Greece, while Ireland and Gibraltar complete the group.

Not only has France won all their games, but they've done so by scoring 11 goals and conceding none. That's an incredible record and shows just how special this team is. France is missing William Saliba, Dayot Upamecano, and Jules Kounde, three great defenders, but their depth allows them to play Lucas Hernandez and Ibrahima Konate, two players who should be good enough to handle a Dutch team also missing many key players.

Netherlands are without Matthijs de Ligt, Cody Gakpo, Frankie de Jong, goalkeepers Flekken and Noppert (starter in the World Cup), Steven Berghuis, Noa Lang, and Memphis Depay.

Without de Jong in particular, they're a far more ordinary team, and they’ll really miss his ball retention against a French team that has everything in their locker. Weghorst will probably start in the striker position, and coach Koeman will return to the 5-3-2 system after the victories against Ireland and Greece.

They struggled to beat Ireland in their previous game, winning 1:2 after conceding a goal at 4’ and finishing the game with fewer expected goals (1.23) than hosts Ireland (1.30). We must also remember that in summer, against Italy in the Nations League, they were totally outplayed and lost 2:3 at home, scoring their last goal at 89’ and being down 0:2 as early as the 20th minute, remaining behind in the score throughout the whole game.

Their next game, which is just in three days, is crucial: They’ll play against Greece, who is their main rival for the second position - they have the same points as Netherlands, but with one more game played. So it’s possible to see some changes in the lineup, focusing on that game which is way easier on paper.

France’s attacking players are amongst the best on the planet. Kylian Mbappe goes without saying, but alongside him are Ousmane Dembele, who has electric pace, Olivier Giroud with 54 goals for his country, and Antoine Griezmann, who has thrived in his new position as the team’s creative outlet.

They have the pace and creativity to cause the Netherlands serious problems, and this is a Dutch team that has displayed naivety at times. In the last meeting between these two teams in March, France won 4-0, scoring three goals in the first 21 minutes.

France is coming off a defeat against Germany (2:1) in a friendly game, so they will surely be highly motivated here to secure the qualification and improve their performance.

It’s unlikely to be as big of a defeat this time in front of their own crowd in Amsterdam, but France has the advantage, making this a must-bet at these odds. This is a seriously talented team packed with some of the best players on the planet. There is experience in their ranks as well as true, true quality. With that in mind, I can’t see anything but a France win.



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

由于预选赛的性质,B组第二名很可能有机会进入季后赛,但这并不能保证。

法国队在欧洲杯上处于领先地位,这并不奇怪,因为他们的队伍中有基利安·姆巴佩(Kylian Mbappe),并进入了世界杯决赛。法国队以5胜5负排名B组第一,荷兰队以3胜1负排名第二,少赛1场。他们与希腊并列9分,爱尔兰和直布罗陀排在小组最后。

法国队不仅赢得了所有的比赛,而且还进了11球,一球未失。这是一个令人难以置信的记录,显示了这支球队是多么的特别。法国队失去了威廉·萨里巴、达约特·乌帕梅卡诺和朱尔斯·孔德这三名伟大的后卫,但他们的阵容深度让他们有了卢卡斯·埃尔南德斯和伊布希马·科内特,这两名球员应该足以对付一支缺少许多关键球员的荷兰队。

荷兰队没有德莱特、科迪·加克波、弗兰基·德容、门将弗莱肯和诺佩特(世界杯首发)、伯格休斯、诺亚·朗和孟菲斯·德佩。

特别是没有德容,他们是一支普通得多的球队,他们真的会想念德容的控球能力,对阵法国队,他们的储物橱里什么都有。韦霍斯特可能会在前锋位置首发,主教练科曼将在战胜爱尔兰和希腊后回归5-3-2阵型。

在上一场比赛中,他们艰难地击败了爱尔兰队,在第4分钟失球后以1:2取胜,比赛结束时的预期进球数(1.23)少于东道主爱尔兰队(1.30)。我们还必须记住,今年夏天,在国家联赛对阵意大利的比赛中,他们完全被击败,在主场以2:3输球,在89分钟攻入最后一个进球,在第20分钟就以0:2落后,整场比赛都在比分上落后。

三天后的下一场比赛至关重要:他们将对阵希腊,希腊是他们争夺第二名的主要对手,他们和荷兰队积分相同,但还要多打一场比赛。所以我们可能会看到阵容上的一些变化,专注于那场在纸面上更容易的比赛。

法国队的进攻球员是世界上最好的。姆巴佩不用说了,但在他身边还有速度惊人的登贝莱,为国家队打进54球的吉鲁,以及作为球队创意出口在新位置上茁壮成长的格列兹曼。

他们的速度和创造力给荷兰队带来了严重的问题,这是一支不时表现出天真的荷兰队。两队上一次交手是在今年3月,法国队4-0获胜,在比赛的前21分钟内打进3球。

法国队刚刚在一场友谊赛中输给了德国队(2:1),所以他们肯定会在这里受到高度激励,以确保出线资格并提高自己的表现。

这次在阿姆斯特丹,在他们自己的球迷面前,他们不太可能遭遇同样大的失败,但法国队有优势,在这样的赔率下,这是一场必须下注的比赛。这是一支非常有天赋的球队,拥有世界上最好的球员。他们的队伍有经验,也有真正的素质。考虑到这一点,除了法国队获胜,我什么都看不到。

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