Monterrey VS FC Juarez

Monterrey host Juarez for this Liga MX Apertura round 12 clash at Estadio BBVA Bancomer early Sunday morning Beijing time. This is the highest-level of Mexican football. The level of this league is mediocre by international standards. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of average level here. Monterrey will most probably control the events on the pitch for the most of the 90 minutes of play. I expect Juarez to defend very hard here – mainly relying on fast counter attacks, corner kicks, free kicks – or a possible penalty kick to score. They are actually pretty good at counter attacking. Yes, it is true that Juarez do not have a very solid defense but I do not see them willing to make this an open goal-scoring contest. I see this match as more low-scoring than the bookies estimate. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 50%. Juarez have allowed 16 times so far in this league but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is significantly lower – 13.09. The hosts’ defense has been better than that of Juarez’s - like it should be. They have conceded 10 goals but their number of xGA is 12.19. The problem for Monterrey has been the very disappointing offense. Indeed, they have scored just 12 goals – the same number as Necaxa, who are currently in last place. Yes, of course they can improve in this area and most probably will – as the season progresses. Even so, I want to mention that their offensive structure has been far from optimal and the midfielders have not been able to support the strikers well enough. Furthermore, their passing accuracy at critical moments has been far from the level we witnessed last season. Indeed, Monterrey won the Liga MX Clausura that was played before Apertura started. They are a big club in Mexico in terms of historical success and financial resources. This must be the main reason behind them being clearly overvalued by the bookies here. The bookies give their potential way too much potential and keep on underestimating Juarez.

The visitors were not great last season but have improved a lot. No, I do not expect them to finish in the top-6 - they are not in 6th place with 15 points to their account. Their offense has been surprisingly efficient this season and they have allowed 18 goals so far. They do not have the best offensive players but their offensive structure is excellent. According to sources they also have a very good team spirit and a good, after undervalued coach! The hosts have lost five of their latest eight games and their level of confidence is clearly not great at the moment. Even so, the biggest bookies see them as very big favorites here – offering them odds of only around 1.50 to win. I see them having an “only” 54% chance of taking all three points. We will take the Juarez +1.5 goals handicap option with a 72% chance of extending the great run of 7/8 latest bets betting on Mexican football! In their latest match Monterrey played a disappointing 1-1 draw away from home against Puebla, a team currently in 17th place with just nine points in this league with a total of 18 clubs. They were priced around 1.70 to win by the bookies. Yes, they did generate more than Puebla in xG though – 1.12-0.78. Before this they were very poor against U.A.N.L Tigres – losing 0-3 away from home. The final score does flatter the hosts but they still deserved the win as they generated 1.89 in xG – Monterrey managed 1.01. Juarez were heavily beaten by Club Tijuana in their most recent game. The 5-1 final score is misleading though as the ball possession was almost 50-50% and the hosts recorded “only” 1.98 xG. Juarez managed 0.98. Even so, they have lost just one of their latest seven games by a margin of more than one goal.

蒙特雷VS华雷斯FC

北京时间周日凌晨，蒙特雷主场迎战华雷斯，将在西班牙对外银行球场(Estadio BBVA Bancomer)迎战西甲联赛第12轮。这是墨西哥最高水平的足球比赛。按照国际标准，这个联赛的水平是中等水平。足球迷和我们这些认真的、渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待一场平均水平的比赛。在90分钟比赛的大部分时间里，蒙特雷很可能会控制场上的局势。我希望华雷斯在这里的防守非常努力——主要依靠快速反击、角球、任意球——或者可能的点球来得分。他们实际上很擅长反击。是的，华雷斯确实没有一个非常稳固的防守，但我不认为他们愿意把这场比赛变成一场开放的进球比赛。我认为这场比赛的比分比博彩公司估计的要低。总进球数少于2.5个的概率为50%。到目前为止，华雷斯在联赛中已经失球16次，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)要低得多，只有13.09个。东道主的防守比华雷斯的防守要好——这是应该的。他们丢了10个球，但是他们的射门数是12.19。蒙特雷队的问题是令人失望的进攻。事实上，他们只进了12个球——和目前排在最后的内卡萨一样。是的，当然他们可以在这方面有所提高，而且很有可能——随着赛季的进展。即便如此，我还是想提一下，他们的进攻结构远没有达到最佳状态，中场也不能很好地支持前锋。此外，他们在关键时刻的传球准确度也远不如上赛季。事实上，蒙特雷赢得了在Apertura开始之前举行的西甲联赛。就历史成就和财政资源而言，他们是墨西哥的一家大俱乐部。这一定是他们被这里的赌徒明显高估的主要原因。博彩公司给了他们太多的潜力，一直低估华雷斯。

客队上赛季表现不佳，但现在进步很大。不，我不期望他们能进入前六，他们现在不是在积分榜的第六名。本赛季他们的进攻效率惊人，迄今为止他们已经丢了18个球。他们没有最好的进攻球员，但他们的进攻结构非常出色。据消息人士透露，他们还拥有一支非常优秀的团队精神和一支优秀的、经过低估的教练!东道主在最近的8场比赛中输掉了5场，目前他们的信心显然不高。即便如此，最大的博彩公司认为他们在这里非常受欢迎——给他们的赔率只有1.50左右。我认为他们“只有”54%的机会拿到全部三分。我们将采取华雷斯+1.5目标障碍选项与72%的机会延长7/8最新投注投注墨西哥足球的伟大运行!在最近的一场比赛中，蒙特雷队在客场1-1战平了普埃布拉队，这支球队目前在联赛中排名第17位，总共有18家俱乐部。博彩公司给他们开出了1.70左右的赔率。是的，他们在xG上确实比普埃布拉多——1.12-0.78。在此之前，他们在对阵ua.n.l老虎队的比赛中表现很差，客场0-3输掉了比赛。最后的比分确实让东道主感到高兴，但他们仍然值得赢得比赛，因为他们在xG取得了1.89分，蒙特雷取得了1.01分。华雷斯队在最近一场比赛中被蒂华纳俱乐部大败。5比1的最终比分具有误导性，因为控球率几乎是50%，而东道主的记录“只有”1.98倍。华雷斯取得了0.98分。即便如此，在最近的七场比赛中，他们只输了一场超过一球的比赛。