Lecce VS Napoli

Lecce host Napoli for this Italian Serie A round 7 battle at Stadio Via del Mare late Saturday evening Beijing time. This is the fourth-best league on the planet. We can expect a match of better than average level by this league’s standards. Most importantly, we have yet another very promising betting opportunity to extend the winning streak of six bets here! However, I do not expect a very entertaining or high-scoring game. Indeed, I see this match as more low-scoring and the draw as a more probable result than the betting market does. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 61%. The chance of both teams taking one point is 29%. I expect the hosts to be pretty defensive here – even in front of their loud and demanding fans. Everyone probably agrees on the fact that Lecce are unlikely to win an open goal-scoring contest against a team of Napoli’s caliber.. Napoli were excellent last season and probably made a lot of fans all over the world with their offensive, entertaining football. They won their first Scudetto (Serie A championship) for three decades. Even so, we must not forget that they took 12.67 more points than they would have deserved in terms of expected points (xPTS). Lecce, on the other hand, were massively unlucky in terms of xPTS. I am pretty sure that Napoli's awesome last season still affects the odds too much here.. Lecce, on the other hand, will surely have a much better season 2023-2024. The fact is that Napoli are only a shadow of the team that dominated this league last season. In the Champions League they were beaten by AC Milan though - despite being clear favorites to qualify for the semi-finals.

Napoli, rather surprisingly, lost only one key player, the excellent South Korean defender Kim Min-Jae, who was sold to Bayern Munich for a big amount of cash. This hurts them more than the betting market seems to realize.. Furthermore, Kvaratskhelia started – after an amazing autumn and winter - to decline heavily in March and it is hard to say what exactly is wrong with him – or did the Georgian just massively overperform earlier.. It has been a weird week in Napoli as the club raised eyebrows by posting a very weird video on social media. They mocked their star striker, Osimhen’s hairstyle (!!!) and a missed penalty. Very bizarre to say the least.. Osimhen’s manager has said publicly that legal action might follow.. The club did apologize later on but it is impossible to know what is really going on within the organization.. Surely, this incident is not a positive thing for Napoli! Osimhen, in fact, did not even greet some of his team mates before the game against Udinese on Wednesday. Napoli did beat Udinese 4-1 at home as big favorites according to the bookies but the final score does flatter them. They generated 3.12 in expected goals (xG) – Udinese managed 1.02 despite being far from their best. Udinese have been surpriisngly poor this season taking just three points and their score difference is 2:10. Osimhen did score the 2-0 goal but did not celebrate his goal!

The main rationale behind this pick is to oppose the overvalued Napoli. They are in 6th place with 11 points to their account and have been only marginally lucky in terms of xPTS. Lecce, too, have 11 points but would have deserved “only” 7.45 points. Yes, of course Napoli do have an edge in all areas of the game but taking the big home advantage and Napoli’s “messy” situation into account I see them as much smaller favorites than the bookies. Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based expert analysis they have a 47% chance of winning. This means that odds on the Lecce +0.5 goals handicap option is the obvious smart bet here at odds of around 2.20! Lecce have lost just one of their latest seven games and are clearly high in confidence at the moment. They also have a good and often underrated coach, D’Aversa. Napoli’s coach Garcia, on the other hand, is an overrated guy in my opinion. Last season they were coached by the legendary L. Spalletti, an excellent coach. I believe his role in Napoli’s success story was bigger than the betting market realizes.. Before the Udinese game they were pretty lame offensively and no goals were scored in Bologna. Furthermore, on the 20th of September they had some luck on their side against Braga in a Champions League game in Portugal. They beat Braga 2-1 as very clear favorites but the match was a very balanced one. Napoli generated only marginally more in xG – 1.44-1.39 to be precise. The host even recorded more attacks and dangerous attacks. Lecce did lose in Turin on Tuesday but Juventus were, of course, big favorites – odds of around 1.50 - in this game. Lecce were a bit lame offensively but Juve also defended extremely well. 1-0 was a justified result. Lecce have had one more day than Napoli to rest and prepare for this game and this does have a clear effect on the probabilities in this clash. Before the game against Juventus Lecce deservedly beat Genoa 1-0 at home after generating 1.22 in xG - the visitors managed just 0.43. They have, in fact, won five home games in a row!

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

莱切VS那不勒斯

北京时间周六晚，莱切主场迎战那不勒斯，进行意甲第7轮比赛。这是世界上第四好的联盟。按照这个联赛的标准，我们可以期待一场高于平均水平的比赛。最重要的是，我们还有另一个非常有希望的投注机会来延长六次投注的连胜纪录!然而，我并不期待一场非常有趣或高分的比赛。事实上，我认为这场比赛的得分更低，平局的结果比博彩市场更有可能。总进球数少于2.5球的概率为61%。两队各得一分的概率是29%。我预计东道主在这里会有很强的防守能力——即使在他们吵闹而苛刻的球迷面前也是如此。每个人可能都同意这样一个事实:莱切不太可能在与那不勒斯这样一支实力强大的球队的空挡进球比赛中获胜。那不勒斯上赛季表现出色，他们的进攻和娱乐足球吸引了全世界的球迷。他们赢得了三十年来的第一个意甲冠军。即便如此，我们也不能忘记他们比预期积分(xPTS)多拿了12.67分。另一方面，莱切在xPTS方面非常不走运。我很确定那不勒斯上赛季的出色表现仍然会影响这里的夺冠几率。另一方面，莱切在2023-2024赛季肯定会有一个更好的赛季。事实上，那不勒斯只是上赛季统治这个联赛的球队的一个影子。在欧冠联赛中，他们被AC米兰击败，尽管他们很有可能晋级半决赛。

令人惊讶的是，那不勒斯只失去了一名关键球员，即韩国优秀后卫金珉宰(Kim Min-Jae)，他以巨额现金被卖给了拜仁慕尼黑(Bayern Munich)。这对他们的伤害似乎比博彩市场意识到的要大。此外，在经历了一个令人惊叹的秋冬之后，Kvaratskhelia在3月份开始严重下滑，很难说他到底出了什么问题，或者格鲁吉亚人只是早些时候表现过度。这是那不勒斯奇怪的一周，俱乐部在社交媒体上发布了一个非常奇怪的视频，引起了人们的关注。他们嘲笑他们的明星前锋，奥西姆恩的发型(!!)和一个罚丢的点球。至少可以说很奇怪……Osimhen的经纪人公开表示可能会采取法律行动。俱乐部后来确实道歉了，但我们不可能知道俱乐部内部到底发生了什么。当然，这件事对那不勒斯来说不是一件好事!事实上，在周三对阵乌迪内斯的比赛之前，奥西姆亨甚至没有和他的一些队友打招呼。根据博彩公司的说法，那不勒斯在主场4-1击败乌迪内斯是最大的热门，但最终的比分确实让他们感到高兴。他们创造了3.12个预期进球(xG)，乌迪内斯尽管远未达到最佳状态，但仍创造了1.02个。乌迪内斯本赛季的表现非常糟糕，只拿到了3分，他们的分差是2:10。Osimhen确实打进了2比0的进球，但是他没有庆祝他的进球!

这个选择背后的主要理由是反对被高估的那不勒斯。他们以11分的积分排在第6位，在xPTS方面只是稍微幸运一些。莱切也得到了11分，但本应得到的只有7.45分。是的，当然那不勒斯在比赛的各个方面都有优势，但是考虑到主场的优势和那不勒斯“混乱”的局面，我认为他们比博彩公司更不受欢迎。根据我老练的，以数据为基础的专家分析他们有47%的获胜机会。这意味着赔率在莱切+0.5个进球障碍选项是明显的聪明的赌注在这里赔率约为2.20!莱切在最近的七场比赛中只输了一场，显然他们现在信心十足。他们还有一位优秀但经常被低估的教练，达维萨。另一方面，在我看来，那不勒斯的教练加西亚是一个被高估的人。上个赛季，他们的教练是传奇人物L.斯帕莱蒂，一位出色的教练。我相信他在那不勒斯成功故事中的作用比博彩市场所意识到的要大。在与乌迪内斯的比赛之前，他们的进攻很差劲，在博洛尼亚没有进球。此外，9月20日在葡萄牙对阵布拉加的欧冠比赛中，他们运气不错。他们2-1击败了布拉加，这是非常明显的夺冠热门，但这场比赛是一场非常平衡的比赛。那不勒斯在xG赛季的进球数略高，准确地说是1.44-1.39。主机甚至记录了更多的攻击和危险攻击。莱切确实在周二输给了都灵，但是尤文图斯，当然，在这场比赛中，赔率约为1.50。莱切的进攻有点蹩脚，但尤文的防守也很出色

芮米。1-0是一个合理的结果。莱切比那不勒斯多了一天的休息时间来准备这场比赛，这对这场比赛的可能性有明显的影响。在与尤文图斯的比赛之前，莱切在主场1-0击败热那亚是理所应当的，他们在比赛中创造了1.22个进球，而客队只创造了0.43个进球。事实上，他们已经连续赢了五场主场比赛!