FSV Mainz 05 VS Bayer Leverkusen

Mainz host Bayer Leverkusen for this German Bundesliga round 6 battle at Mewa Arena late Saturday evening Beijing time. This is the third-best league on the planet after the English Premier League and the Spanish LaLiga. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of average level by this league’s standards between these two teams. The hosts currently occupy the 18th place in the standings – last place that is! They have had a disappointing start to the season and have just one point in their pocket. I have, as a result of poor results, lowered their power rating - that reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible starting lineup – from my in-depth preseason analysis. The bookmakers, on the other hand, seem to have lost faith in Mainz already. As most of my fans probably know by now one of the key things in long-term profitable sports betting is not to react too heavily to 1-10 games – depending on the sport and the circumstances, of course. Let’s not forget that Mainz finished in 9th place last season. Surely, they will be worse this season though. The question is – how much worse.. Leverkusen, on the other hand, recovered from the horribly bad early season and climbed up to 6th place. They took just four more points than Mainz. Mainz are traditionally a strong team at home in front of their loyal and quite loud fans. Furthermore, there is long-term data suggesting that betting on the away team with -1.5 handicap – not to mention bigger – is usually not a good idea long-term. This is the case here as well! Indeed, the bookies see the visitors as big favorites here – offering them odds of only around 1.55 of leaving the hosts empty-handed here. Of course, they are clearly the better team but taking the substantial home advantage into account I see Leverkusen having an only 54% chance of winning this battle. The biggest, sometimes rather sharp bookies who offer the largest betting limits offer the Mainz +1.5 goals handicap option odds of around 1.60. We will take this with a 68% chance of extending the long winning streak.

The majority of my fans are probably aware of the fact that I never let the standings fool me! The hosts' number of expected points (xPTS) is - 6.53. If they had six or seven points to their account the odds would surely be very different here.. Mainz have been extremely unlucky in terms of expected goals allowed (xGA) – this number is 9.12 but they have conceded 14 goals. Their defensive structure has been okay in some games but their defenders have made too many stupid individual mistakes. Furthermore, many of their midfielders have not been active enough in defending. They have netted the ball four times in the Bundesliga so far this season but their number of expected goals (xG) is 7.99. Leverkusen have started the season much better than last season and are currently in 3rd place. They have grabbed 13 points but their number of xPTS is “only” 9.23. Their offense has been more creative and effective than I would have expected and they have scored a whopping 17 goals in this league. However, their number of xG is 14.12. In their latest game they cruised to a fully deserved 4-1 over Heidenheim at home as gigantic favorites – priced around 1.20 to beat the newly promoted visitors. It was a strong performance but I want to highlight that Heidenheim played clearly below their normal level in this game. Before this they beat a Swedish team, Häcken, 4-0 in an UEFA Europa League battle at home. Häcken are a very small team compared to Leverkusen and the hosts were priced around 1.10 to win by the bookies. Yes, Leverkusen deserved the three points but the final score still flatters them. They generated 2.23 in xG – Häcken managed 0.72. Moreover, rather interestingly the visitors even recorded more attacks (101-88) and dangerous attacks - 64-51. Mainz have lost three of their last five games. In their most recent game they suffered a 1-2 defeat away from home against Augsburg. However, they had 55% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts (13-6), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks – 51-36. Augsburg did generate a little more in xG though – 1.08-0.82 to be precise and the match could easily have gone either way. However, I want to mention that the hosts’ Engels was sent off in the 62nd minute.

美因茨VS勒沃库森

北京时间周六晚，美因茨主场迎战勒沃库森，进行德甲第6轮比赛。这是世界上第三好的联赛，仅次于英超和西甲。足球迷和我们这些认真的、渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待这两支球队之间的比赛达到联赛标准的平均水平。东道主目前在积分榜上排名第18位——也就是最后一名!他们本赛季开局令人失望，目前只拿到一分。由于成绩不佳，我从季前赛的深入分析中降低了他们的能量评级——这反映了球队拥有最好首发阵容的纯粹等级。另一方面，博彩公司似乎已经对美因茨失去了信心。正如我的大多数粉丝现在可能知道的那样，长期盈利的体育博彩的关键之一是不要对1-10场比赛做出太大的反应——当然，这取决于运动和环境。别忘了美因茨上赛季排名第九。当然，他们本赛季会更糟。问题是——糟糕到什么程度……另一方面，勒沃库森从赛季初的糟糕状态中恢复过来，爬升到第六名。他们只比美因茨多拿了4分。美因茨是一支传统的强队，在他们忠实的球迷面前。此外，有长期数据表明，从长期来看，押注胜率为-1.5的客场球队(更不用说胜率更高的球队了)通常不是一个好主意。这里的情况也是如此!事实上，博彩公司认为客队在这里是大热门，他们开出的赔率只有1.55左右，东道主在这里空手而归。当然，他们显然是更好的球队，但考虑到主场优势，我认为勒沃库森只有54%的机会赢得这场比赛。最大的，有时相当敏锐的博彩公司提供最大的投注限额，提供美因茨+1.5进球障碍选项的赔率约为1.60。我们有68%的机会延续我们的连胜纪录。

我的大多数粉丝可能都知道，我从不让排名欺骗我!主机的期望点数(xPTS)为- 6.53。如果他们的账户上有六七个点的话，赔率肯定会大不相同。美因茨在预期失球(xGA)方面非常不走运，这个数字是9.12，但他们丢了14个球。他们的防守结构在一些比赛中还不错，但他们的后卫犯了太多愚蠢的个人错误。此外，他们的许多中场球员在防守中不够活跃。本赛季到目前为止，他们在德甲联赛中取得了4次进球，但他们的预期进球数(xG)为7.99。勒沃库森本赛季的开局比上赛季好得多，目前排名第三。他们拿到了13分，但他们的得分“只有”9.23。他们的进攻比我想象的更有创造力和效率，他们在联赛中打进了17个进球。然而，他们的xG数量是14.12。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场以4比1大胜海登海姆，这是他们当之无愧的夺冠热门。这是一场强劲的表现，但我想强调的是，海登海姆在这场比赛中的表现明显低于他们的正常水平。在此之前，他们在欧联杯主场4-0击败了一支瑞典球队Häcken。与勒沃库森相比，Häcken是一支非常小的球队，博彩公司对东道主的胜率估计在1.10左右。是的，勒沃库森配得上三分，但最后的比分仍然让他们感到高兴。他们在xG中生成了2.23个，Häcken生成了0.72个。此外，相当有趣的是，客队甚至记录了更多的攻击(101-88)和危险攻击(64-51)。美因茨最近五场比赛输了三场。在最近的一场比赛中，他们客场1-2输给了奥格斯堡。然而，他们有55%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球次数(13-6)，总传球，完成传球，攻击和危险攻击- 51-36。奥格斯堡在xG的进球确实多了一点——准确地说，是1.08-0.82，这场比赛很容易就会出现两种结果。然而，我想提一下主队的恩格斯在第62分钟被罚下。