Inter Miami supporters are understandably anxious about Lionel Messi's status for the upcoming final. Their hopes for his active participation were dashed when the Argentine superstar was conspicuously absent from the team's final training session before the crucial cup match on Wednesday.

However, irrespective of Messi's availability, there are several compelling factors that make it improbable for Houston to clinch the trophy.

One often underestimated aspect of professional soccer in the United States is the extensive travel involved. At this juncture of the season, the toll it takes on players becomes notably evident.

I mention this because Houston Dynamo will be playing their second consecutive away fixture within a span of five days on Wednesday night. In their previous match against Sporting Kansas City, they suffered a 2-1 defeat, conceding goals within the first 10 minutes and later in the half despite Sporting being down to 10 men.

This pattern isn't new for Houston. They've secured only four wins in all competitions—two during their Open Cup run—while enduring nine defeats and four draws in away matches this season. This record worsens in fixtures involving frequent travel and short periods of rest.

For example, in April, Houston experienced a 1-0 defeat at Minnesota followed by a 1-1 draw at Dallas just three days later. Similarly, a two-game stint in early June saw them lose a combined 9-2 to Vancouver (6:2) and St. Louis City (3:0), shortly after playing a match in Austin. Even when they've had to travel for a match just days after a home game, their performance has been subpar.

Furthermore, Houston struggles to score when playing away. Their three goals against Real Salt Lake almost a month ago were a significant anomaly, considering their recent away matches have seen only five Dynamo goals in total over seven games. They've failed to score in seven of their 17 away fixtures, and their 11 total away goals are among the fewest in MLS.

In contrast, Inter Miami, despite having one less day of rest after playing on Sunday, had a relatively short trip to Orlando. They've demonstrated, time and again, that they've transformed into a different team since Messi's arrival, whether he's on the field or not. They're also unbeaten in their last five home games.

Regardless of Messi's role in the match, be it starting, coming off the bench, or not participating at all, this match favors Inter Miami. They've already triumphed in a crucial final—albeit away from home—in the Leagues Cup, and have navigated through two shootouts in this tournament.

The younger players in the squad won't be as nervy, especially with the backing of their home crowd this time around. They've been performing well lately, even without their star player, and will likely have the fresher legs compared to their opponents.

Moreover, Inter Miami can count on a rested Sergio Busquets, who didn't play in the match against Orlando over the weekend. This presents a challenge for Houston, whose fatigued players may struggle in the second half, contending with rainy conditions, a wet pitch, and the humidity of Miami.

国际米兰球迷对梅西在即将到来的决赛中的状态感到焦虑是可以理解的。当这位阿根廷巨星明显缺席球队在周三关键的杯赛前的最后一次训练时，他们希望他能积极参加的希望破灭了。

然而，不管梅西能否上场，有几个令人信服的因素使休斯顿夺冠的可能性微乎其微。

在美国，职业足球经常被低估的一个方面是需要大量的旅行。在这个赛季的关键时刻，球员们所付出的代价变得尤为明显。

我提到这一点是因为休斯顿迪纳摩将在周三晚上进行他们连续五天的客场比赛。在上一场对阵堪萨斯城体育的比赛中，他们以2比1惨败，在前10分钟和下半场都丢了球，尽管体育只剩下10人。

这种模式对休斯顿来说并不新鲜。他们在所有比赛中只取得了四场胜利，其中两场是在公开杯比赛中取得的，而本赛季他们在客场比赛中遭遇了9场失利和4场平局。在频繁旅行和短时间休息的比赛中，这一记录更糟。

例如，今年4月，休斯顿0 -1不敌明尼苏达，三天后又1-1战平达拉斯。同样，在六月初的两场比赛中，他们在奥斯丁打了一场比赛后不久，就以2:9输给了温哥华(6:2)和圣路易斯(3:0)。即使在主场比赛后几天，他们不得不去客场比赛，他们的表现也不尽如人意。

此外，火箭在客场比赛时很难得分。近一个月前，迪纳摩在对阵皇家盐湖的比赛中打进三球，这是一个重大的反常现象，因为他们最近的客场比赛在过去的7场比赛中总共只有5个迪纳摩进球。他们在17场客场比赛中有7场没有进球，他们的11个客场进球是美国大联盟中最少的。

相比之下，国际迈阿密队虽然在周日比赛后少休息了一天，但他们在奥兰多的行程相对较短。他们已经一次又一次地证明，自从梅西到来以来，他们已经变成了一支不同的球队，无论他在不在场上。他们在最近的五场主场比赛中保持不败。

无论梅西在比赛中扮演什么角色，无论是首发、替补还是根本不参加比赛，这场比赛都对国际米兰有利。他们已经在联赛杯的关键决赛中取得了胜利——尽管是在客场，并且在本届杯赛中经历了两次点球大战。

球队中的年轻球员不会那么紧张，尤其是在主场球迷的支持下。即使没有他们的明星球员，他们最近也表现得很好，与对手相比，他们可能会有更新鲜的双腿。

此外，国际迈阿密可以依靠休息的塞尔吉奥·布斯克茨，他在周末与奥兰多的比赛中没有上场。这对休斯顿来说是一个挑战，他们疲惫的球员可能会在下半场挣扎，与多雨的环境、潮湿的球场和迈阿密的湿度作斗争。