In my opinion Leicester is clear favorite of this game and should be able to make 3 points.
I see big difference between both teams in terms of quality, potential and ambitions. Leicester is huge favorite to get promotion, Bristol is team for places 6-10.
In last home game Leicester lost 0:1 against Hull, but that was very disappointing for the team because that was really undeserved result: expected goals scored for Leicester 1.20, for Hull 0.31. Foxes bounced back on good track in best possible way – they played two hard matches on away, against other candidates for promotion (Norwich and Southampton) and they won twice – offensive formation looked superb as they scored 6 goals in the process. Now Leicester back to home and wants to go with momentum front of home crowd, especially after last poor loss.
Bristol won 4:1 at home against Plymouth in last round, but result looks better than really should. Plymouth had 3 big chances to score in that game, on the other hand according to the expected goals scored model Bristol should score 1.60. I still don’t trust for their defensive formation. In addition to that, Bristol still not faces team on Leicester level. It’s their first big test and I really don’t see positive outcome.
Leicester offensive formation is simply too good to be stopped by Bristol. I see more than one goal for hosts and that should be enough.
在我看来,莱斯特城显然是这场比赛的热门,应该能够得到3分。
我看到了两支球队在质量、潜力和雄心方面的巨大差异。莱斯特城是晋级的热门球队,布里斯托尔是6-10名的球队。
在上一场主场比赛中,莱斯特城以0:1输给了赫尔城,但这对球队来说非常失望,因为这真的是一个不应得的结果:莱斯特城的预期进球数为1.20,赫尔城为0.31。狐狸队以最好的方式恢复了良好的状态——他们在客场打了两场艰苦的比赛,对手是其他晋级候选人(诺维奇和南安普顿),他们赢了两场球——进攻阵型看起来很棒,他们在这个过程中进了6个球。现在莱斯特城回到主场,想要在主场球迷面前带着气势走下去,尤其是在上一场糟糕的失利之后。
布里斯托尔在上一轮主场4:1战胜普利茅斯,但结果看起来比实际要好。普利茅斯在那场比赛中有3次大机会得分,另一方面,根据预期进球数模型,布里斯托尔应该得分1.60。我还是不相信他们的防守阵型。除此之外,布里斯托尔还没有面对莱斯特级别的球队。这是他们的第一次重大考验,我真的看不到积极的结果。
莱斯特的进攻阵型太好了,布里斯托尔阻挡不了。我认为东道主会有不止一个进球,这应该足够了。