In my opinion Watford have bigger chances to avoid loss than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

Watford have really solid streak at this stadium as they didn’t lost in 5 of last 6 away matches against Leeds.

I really don’t see Leeds with such low odds. In current season so far they failed to win in 5 of 7 matches. On the paper now defensive formation look solid as they not conceded single goal in last 3 matches in a row, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 0.86 against Sheffield, 0.45 against Millwall and 1.28 against Hull. On the other hand Watford offensive formation found great flow in last matches as they scored more than one goal in last 3 matches in a row. Confidence is on high level as they went unbeaten in last 3 matches and they should be able to score.

Leeds offensive formation is inconsistent. They failed to score in 2 of last 3 matches and I really don’t see easy goals for them today. According to the expected goals conceded model, Watford have the most solid defensive formation as they have only 4.8 expected goals conceded after 7 rounds.

On those circumstances value is on away side.

在我看来，沃特福德有更大的机会避免输掉比赛，而不是博彩公司给我们的赔率。

沃特福德在这个球场有很稳定的连胜，他们最近6场客场对阵利兹联的比赛中5场没有输。

我觉得利兹的胜算不会这么低。本赛季到目前为止，他们7场比赛中有5场没有获胜。在纸上，现在防守阵型看起来很稳固，因为他们在最近3场比赛中没有丢一个球，但根据预期失球模型，他们应该对谢菲尔德丢0.86，对米尔沃尔丢0.45，对赫尔城丢1.28。另一方面，沃特福德的进攻阵型在最近几场比赛中发现了很大的流动性，他们在最近3场比赛中打进了一个以上的进球。他们在最近3场比赛中保持不败，信心很高，他们应该能够进球。

利兹的进攻阵型不稳定。他们在最近的3场比赛中有2场没有进球，我真的不认为他们今天能轻松进球。根据预期失球模型，沃特福德的防守阵型最稳固，他们在7轮之后的预期失球只有4.8个。

在这种情况下，价值是不重要的。