Strong value in J1 league today
2023-09-23

Przem

外籍分析师

日职

09/23 13:00

已完赛

解读理由:

In my opinion Yokohama have bigger chances to avoid loss than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds. Double chance on away side looks like very good option to play.


Yokohama have good mental advantage before this game as they won 3 of last 4 matches against Niigata. First match of the season between both teams finished with Yokohama 1:0 win at home.


7 rounds left and Yokohama is only one point above relegation zone, Niigata have 8 points more and more safe situation. It’s extremely important game for guests, no doubt about that. I’m sure Yokohama will give absolutely everything to make at least one point in this game and they have all required tools to make it happen.


Yokohama looked good in last matches. They won 4:1 in huge derby game against title defenders Marinos. They recorded 1:1 draw on away against strong Nagoya (5th place in table), but they deserved for something more in that game: expected goals scored for Yokohama 1.99, for Nagoya 0.61. In last round they lost 1:2 at home against Kashiwa, but that was close game. For sure they wants to bounce back on good track as soon as possible. Form is solid.


I don’t see Niigata as so big favorite here, they failed to win in 20 of 27 matches in current J1 league season. Currently they have streak of 4 matches without a win, for sure their confidence is not on the highest possible level. In each of last 4 matches they had lower expected goals scored number than opponents. They are not in better form than Yokohama.


Yokohama will sit deep at the back and will wait for counter attacks/set pieces. That should work well as they scored 40% of goals from set-pieces.


Value is on away side.



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

在我看来,横滨避免损失的机会比博彩公司给我们的赔率要大。客场的双重机会看起来是个不错的选择。


横滨在这场比赛前有很好的心理优势,他们在最近4场对新泻的比赛中赢了3场。两队本赛季的首场比赛以横滨队在主场1:0获胜结束。


还剩7轮,横滨仅比降级区高出1分,新泻有8分的情况越来越安全。毫无疑问,这对客人来说是非常重要的游戏。我相信横滨会尽一切努力在这场比赛中至少得到一分,他们拥有所有必要的工具来实现这一目标。


横滨在上几场比赛中表现不错。他们在德比大战中以4:1战胜卫冕冠军马里诺斯队。他们客场1:1战平了强大的名古屋(排名第五),但他们应该在那场比赛中得到更多:横滨的预期进球数为1.99,名古屋的预期进球数为0.61。上一轮他们在主场以1:2输给了柏泽,但那是一场势均力敌的比赛。当然,他们希望尽快回到良好的轨道上。形式是坚实的。


我不认为新泻有多大的希望,他们在当前J1联赛的27场比赛中有20场失利。目前他们已经连续4场比赛没有获胜,可以肯定的是他们的信心没有达到最高水平。在过去的4场比赛中,他们的预期进球数都低于对手。他们的状态并不比横滨好。


横滨会坐在后腰,等待反击和定位球。这应该很有效,因为他们有40%的进球来自定位球。


价值在一边。

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