Rayo Vallecano VS Deportivo Alavés

Rayo Vallecano welcome Alaves for this Spanish LaLiga round 5 battle at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas in Madrid early Saturday morning Beijing time. This is the second-best league on the planet – after the English Premier League. Football fans and us serious-football bettors can expect a match of mediocre quality by LaLiga standards here. Most importantly, we have yet another lucrative betting opportunity here! Rayo Vallecano are currently in 12th place in the standings. They have grabbed a total of six points. However, in terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved 8.67 points. They have netted the ball just four times but their number of expected goals (xG) is 8.01! Furthermore, they have conceded eight goals but the hosts’ expected number of goals allowed (xGA) is 6.01. However, they allowed seven of these eight goals on the 28th of August when they suffered a huge 0-7 defeat against Real Madrid, the second-best team in this league, at home. It was a rather bizarre match indeed.. There is no denying the fact that Rayo Vallecano were bad, much below their normal level, in this game and Real Madrid, of course, did deserve the three points, but the final score is still very misleading! Indeed, Rayo had 56% ball possession and even recorded more corner kicks (8-3), shots off goal (7-4), attacks (144-73) as well as dangerous attacks – 66-15. Real did record more goal attempts and shots on goal. The visitors generated 3.41 in xG – Rayo Vallecano managed 0.76. Unsurprisingly, the hosts were mercilessly mocked in the football media after this game but it was – after all – just one match - as clear underdogs - and three points lost. One of the key things in long-term profitable sports betting is not to react too heavily to one – or even three or four games. In their most recent match, they played a 2-2 draw against Alcorcon, a team that plays in the LaLiga2. However, it was a friendly game and most Rayo Vallecano players did not seem to take this game 100% seriously. Avoiding injuries was understandably important in this game. Most of my fans probably know at this point that I usually do not give friendly games too much emphasis.

Last season Rayo Vallecano finished in 11th place in this league with a total of 20 clubs. Something similar is expected this season as well. Rayo are in 12th place in my power rating that reflects the teams’ pure class with the best possible starting lineup. Alaves, on the other hand, were promoted to LaLiga from LaLiga2 for this season. I expect them to struggle as the season progresses and are at big risk of being relegated! They lack quality in all areas of the game to do well at this level. I want to highlight that the difference between the first tier and second tier is massive! The visitors are in the 19th place in my power rating. Indeed, the main rationale behind this pick is to oppose the clearly over-rated Alaves! They are a very small team in terms of financial resources by LaLiga standards. According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com their players have an estimated market value of just around 51 million euros. Even this is marginally too high in my expert opinion. Rayo Vallecano’s squad has a total estimated market value of about 92 million. This is definitely too low! 120-125 million would be a more realistic number! Before the heavy defeat in the hands of Real Madrid Rayo played a decent game away from home despite losing to Real Betis, a dangerous team who finished in 6th place last season. Rayo were, of course, clear underdogs in this game on the betting market but still recorded one more shot on target and goal attempt than Betis. As a whole Betis were marginally better – generating 0.78 in xG – Rayo’s number was 0.75.

Rayo started the LaLiga season well, taking two fine away wins – both 2-0. In the opening round they defeated Almeria despite being slim underdogs according to the bookies. They did, however, generate 2.45 in xG - the hosts managed 1.21. After this they beat Granada and recorded much more in xG - 2.23-1.04. This match was seen as a coin toss – without an actual favorite - by most bookies. In both of these games it was clear the bookmakers had underestimated Rayo Vallecano who are a much better team than the list of players would suggest! I trust their coach F. Rodriguez a lot. He is a smart guy tactically and is also a great leader. Rayo play pretty defensive, well-organized football even at home - consequently the goal expectancy here is pretty low here as well and 1-0 is the most probable final score. Alaves, too, have six points to their account. They have started the season better than I would have expected and I have marginally raised their power rating from the in-depth preseason analysis. Even so, their number of xPTS is only 4.76 and they have been lucky in terms of xG and xGA. I want to highlight that they have only faced lowly or mediocre teams. Some fans might think that Sevilla, the reigning UEFA Europa League champions as a strong team but this team have lost all games in LaLiga so far and have not convinced anyone. In their most recent game Alaves beat Valencia 1-0 at home but this match could easily have gone either way. The visitors had 61% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts and shots on goal (4-1), attacks and corner kicks. Alaeves did, however, generate a little more in xG. Even so, their attacking was pretty slow and predictable. Before this Alaves were bad on the road against Getafe, a pretty limited team, and lost 0-1. The hosts could easily have taken a more clear win – they generated 2.54 in xG – Alaves managed only 0.54. The home advantage in LaLiga is bigger than in most leagues and this is the case in this game as well. Alaves are not a strong team on the road and have lost their last three away games! Rayo Vallecano are very clear favorites here with a 58% chance of sending the visitors home empty-handed. Odds of around 1.95-2.00 are widely available at the time of writing this preview Wednesday afternoon Beijing time.

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巴列卡诺VS拉科鲁尼亚

北京时间周六凌晨，巴列卡诺队将在马德里巴列卡斯足球广场欢迎阿拉维斯参加西甲第5轮比赛。这是世界上第二好的联赛，仅次于英超联赛。足球迷和我们这些认真的足球投注者可以期待一场以西甲标准衡量的平庸比赛。最重要的是，我们还有另一个赚钱的赌博机会!巴列卡诺目前排名第12位。他们总共得了6分。然而，在期望积分(xPTS)方面，他们应该得到8.67分。他们只有4次进球，但他们的预期进球数(xG)是8.01!此外，他们丢了8个球，但东道主的预期失球数(xGA)是6.01个。然而，在8月28日主场0-7惨败于联赛第二强队皇家马德里的比赛中，他们丢了8个球中的7个。这确实是一场相当奇怪的比赛。不可否认的事实是，巴列卡诺的表现很糟糕，远远低于他们的正常水平，在这场比赛中，皇马当然应该得到三分，但最终的比分仍然很误导人!事实上，雷奥拥有56%的控球率，甚至创造了更多的角球(8胜3负)、射偏(7胜4负)、进攻(144胜73负)以及危险进攻(66胜15负)。皇马的进球次数和射门次数都有所增加。客队在2016年攻入3.41球，巴列卡诺攻入0.76球。不出所料，东道主在这场比赛后被足球媒体无情地嘲笑，但毕竟这只是一场比赛，显然是劣势，而且输了三分。长期盈利的体育博彩的关键之一是不要对一场甚至三场或四场比赛反应过度。在最近的一场比赛中，他们以2比2战平了Alcorcon，这是一支参加西甲联赛的球队。然而，这是一场友谊赛，大多数雷约巴列卡诺球员似乎并没有百分之百地认真对待这场比赛。避免伤病在这场比赛中是很重要的。我的大多数粉丝现在可能都知道，我通常不太重视友谊赛。

上个赛季，巴列卡诺在联赛中排名第11位，总共有20家俱乐部。预计本赛季也会出现类似的情况。在我的力量排名中，雷诺排在第12位，这反映了球队拥有最好的首发阵容的纯粹水平。另一方面，阿拉维斯本赛季从西甲升入西甲。我预计他们会在赛季进行中挣扎，并且面临降级的巨大风险!他们在比赛的各个方面都缺乏实力，无法在这个水平上表现出色。我想强调的是，第一层和第二层之间的差异是巨大的!v星人在我的能量等级里排在第19位。事实上，这个选择背后的主要理由是反对明显被高估的阿拉维斯!按照西甲联赛的标准，他们是一支财力非常有限的球队。据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com称，他们的球员的市场价值约为5100万欧元。在我的专业意见中，这个数字也有点太高了。巴列卡诺的球队总市值约为9200万欧元。这绝对太低了!1.2 - 1.25亿将是一个更现实的数字!在惨败于皇家马德里之前，尽管输给了上赛季排名第六的危险球队皇家贝蒂斯，雷奥还是在客场打了一场不错的比赛。当然，在这场比赛的博彩市场上，雷约显然处于劣势，但仍然比贝蒂斯多了一次射门和射门次数。总体而言，贝蒂斯的表现稍好一些，在xG中产生了0.78，而雷诺的数字是0.75。

雷约在西甲联赛开局不错，拿下了两场精彩的客场胜利——都是2比0。在首轮比赛中，他们击败了阿尔梅里亚，尽管根据博彩公司的说法，他们是微弱的劣势。然而，他们在xG中生成了2.45，而主机只生成了1.21。在这之后，他们击败了格拉纳达，在xG - 2.23-1.04中取得了更多的成绩。这场比赛被大多数博彩公司视为一场掷硬币的比赛，没有一个真正的宠儿。在这两场比赛中，很明显博彩公司低估了巴列卡诺，他们比球员名单上显示的要好得多!我非常信任他们的教练f·罗德里格斯。他在战术上是一个聪明的家伙，也是一个伟大的领袖。即使是在主场，雷奥也踢得很有防守，很有组织，因此这里的进球预期也很低，1-0是最有可能的最终比分。阿拉维斯也有6分。他们本赛季的开局比我预期的要好，我也略微提高了他们的身价

我们的评分来自季前赛的深入分析。即便如此，他们的xpt数量也只有4.76，而且他们在xG和xGA方面还算幸运。我想强调的是，他们只面对过低水平或平庸的球队。一些球迷可能认为卫冕欧联杯冠军塞维利亚是一支强大的球队，但这支球队迄今在西甲输掉了所有比赛，并没有说服任何人。在他们最近的一场比赛中，阿拉维斯主场1-0击败了瓦伦西亚，但这场比赛很容易发生两种情况。客队的控球率为61%，进球次数、射门次数(4比1)、进攻次数和角球次数都更多。然而，Alaeves在xG中确实产生了更多。即便如此，它们的攻击还是相当缓慢和可预测的。在此之前，阿拉维斯在对阵赫塔菲的比赛中表现不佳，赫塔菲是一支实力相当有限的球队，最后0-1输掉了比赛。东道主本可以轻而易举地取得更明显的胜利——他们在xG比赛中取得了2.54分，而阿拉维斯只取得了0.54分。西甲的主场优势比大多数联赛都要大，这场比赛也是如此。阿拉维斯在客场并不是一支强队，最近三场客场比赛都输了!巴列卡诺是最受欢迎的球队，他们有58%的机会让游客空手而归。在北京时间周三下午撰写这篇预告时，赔率约为1.95-2.00。