Belarus U21 VS Portugal U21

Belarus U21 welcome Portugal U21 for this EURO U21 qualification group G battle at Armavir stadium in Armavir late Tuesday evening Beijing time. The match is played in Armenia so the home advantage is smaller than it would normally be. However, Belarus are expected to receive much more support from the spectators than Portugal. Furthermore, they have a shorter trip to Armenia than the visitors. We can expect a pretty boring game here as Portugal are expected to control the events on the pitch for the most of the 90 minutes. The hosts will most probably defend with at least 10 men and would most certainly be happy with a draw. They are capable of pretty well-organized defending and Portugal will surely not find it easy to break their defense. I see this match as more low-scoring than the betting market does. Indeed, the probability of under 3.5 goals total goals to be scored is 61%. In away games the motivation to go for as many goals as possible is not usually very high. especially Portugal’s very talented players will surely want to avoid injuries or getting too fatigued. In fact, there is long-term data to suggest that betting on the away team with a -2.5 goals handicap, not to mention a bigger handicap, is very rarely a good idea! Of course there is no doubt about the fact that Portugal are the much better team here. They do have an edge over Belarus in all areas of the game and do have an over 80% chance of taking all three points. However, we will go for the Belarus +2.5 goals handicap option. The biggest, sometimes somewhat sharp bookies who offer the betting limits offer odds of around 1.85-1.90 and based on my sophisticated expert analysis the chance of winning is 59%.

Belarus have started the qualification with three draws and one loss. In their most recent match, they faced Faroe Islands and were very unlucky to lose 2-3. Indeed, they had 68% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (19-4), shots on goal (7-3), shots off target (12-1), corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks – 90-33. It is true that Belarus were a bit disappointing in this game but it seems that the betting market has reacted too heavily to this result. Before this they lost to R. Volgograd 2-3 in a friendly. In the second round of qualification they proved that they can play good football taking a draw in Greece after a somewhat balanced clash. It was a 1-1 draw. Let’s not forget that Greece are a pretty strong football country! In the previous qualification they finished in 4th place with 12 points to their account but had a positive score difference – 16:15. Their number of expected goals (xG) was 14.56. They have not lost any of their latest games by a margin of more than one goal. Portugal easily beat a limited team, Andorra, in their most recent game. 3-0 was the final score at home and most bookies offered Portugal odds of only 1.01. Their offense did fully convince me in this match. Portugal qualified for the EURO U21 tournament that was played in the summer but were disappointing as a whole. They even lost to Georgia as big favorites, priced around 1.35-1.40 to win by the bookmakers. They did make it to the Playoffs but lost to England 0-1.

白俄罗斯U21 VS葡萄牙U21

北京时间周二晚，白俄罗斯U21将在阿尔马维尔体育场迎来葡萄牙队U21的欧洲杯U21预选赛G组大战。这场比赛在亚美尼亚进行，所以主场优势比通常情况下要小。然而，白俄罗斯预计将获得比葡萄牙更多的观众支持。此外，他们在亚美尼亚的旅行时间比访客短。我们可以期待一场非常无聊的比赛，因为葡萄牙队将在90分钟的大部分时间里控制比赛。东道主很可能会用至少10人防守，并且肯定会对平局感到高兴。他们的防守组织得很好，葡萄牙肯定不会轻易突破他们的防守。我认为这场比赛比赌博市场上的比分更低。事实上，总进球数少于3.5球的概率是61%。在客场比赛中，想要尽可能多进球的动机通常不是很高。尤其是葡萄牙那些非常有天赋的球员，他们肯定希望避免受伤或过度疲劳。事实上，有长期的数据表明，赌输球胜率为-2.5的客场球队，更不用说胜率更大的球队了，这几乎不是一个好主意!当然，毫无疑问，葡萄牙在这里的表现要好得多。他们确实在比赛的各个方面都比白俄罗斯有优势，并且有超过80%的机会拿到全部三分。然而，我们会选择白俄罗斯+2.5个进球的障碍选项。最大的，有时有些精明的博彩公司提供的投注限制赔率在1.85-1.90左右，根据我老练的专家分析，获胜的机会是59%。

白俄罗斯以3平1负的成绩开始了预选赛。在最近的一场比赛中，他们面对法罗群岛，非常不幸地以2比3输掉了比赛。事实上，他们有68%的控球率，并且记录了更多的射门次数(19胜4负)、射正(7胜3负)、射偏(12胜1负)、角球、进攻和危险进攻——90胜33负。白俄罗斯在这场比赛中确实有点令人失望，但似乎博彩市场对这个结果的反应过于强烈。在此之前，他们在一场友谊赛中以2-3输给了伏尔加格勒。在资格赛的第二轮，他们在一场势均力敌的比赛后与希腊打成平局，证明了他们可以踢得很好。双方1比1战平。我们不要忘记希腊是一个非常强大的足球国家!在之前的资格赛中，他们以12分的成绩获得第四名，但他们的积分差为16:15。他们的预期进球数(xG)为14.56。他们在最近的比赛中没有输过一球以上的比赛。葡萄牙在最近的一场比赛中轻松击败了实力有限的安道尔。3比0是主场比赛的最终比分，大多数博彩公司对葡萄牙的赔率只有1.01。他们的进攻在这场比赛中完全说服了我。葡萄牙获得了今年夏天举行的U21欧洲杯的参赛资格，但整体表现令人失望。他们甚至输给了佐治亚队，成为夺冠热门，博彩公司给出的夺冠概率在1.35-1.40左右。他们确实打进了季后赛，但以0比1不敌英格兰。