Treaty United VS Wexford

Treaty United host Derry City for this Irish Division 1 round 26 Saturday morning Beijing time. This league is of low extreme level by European standards. It is much worse than for example the Finnish second tier, Ykkönen. Most players in the Division 1 are amateurs. The majority young and talented Irish players leave Ireland at an early age to play abroad. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors cannot expect a particularly entertaining game here. Indeed, none of the latest five games between these teams have seen more than two goals being scored. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored here is higher than the bookmakers estimated. Indeed, the probability is 55% in my expert opinion. We must not let the league table fool us here. There is a clear difference in pure class between the two teams – there is no denying that! With today’s lineups the visitors have a close to 50% chance of winning. The biggest, sometimes pretty smart bookies offer odds of around 2.50 on Wexford to win at the time of writing this analysis Friday morning Beijing time but I expect their odds to drop before the kickoff as smart money is expected to pile up on the visitors!

The hosts cannot match Wexford in any area of the game. Moreover, let’s not forget that Treaty United have not been able to beat Wexford in any of the most recent five times these two teams have locked horns! Wexford won 2/5 and three games were draws. Furthermore, according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com the hosts’ squad has no estimated value at all! Of course, this is not entirely true but reflects the team’s pure class well! The Wexford squad, on the other hand, have a market value of 100 000 euros but I would say that 140-150 000 would be a more realistic number.. The biggest edge over Treaty United the visitors have in terms of offensive defensive quality. Indeed, Wexford have allowed 41 goals but their number of expected goals allowed is much smaller - 34.12 to be precise. They have 39 points to their account and are in 5th place. They are in a fierce battle for a place in the Playoffs where teams that finish in 2-5 place qualify for. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is 43.09 and I have them in the 4th place in my power rating that reflects the teams’ pure class with the best possible starting eleven. The hosts’ defense has been weak and this is the main reason for their disappointing season. They have conceded 48 goals and have 34 points to their account – xPTS is just 31.45. The visitors have lost just one of their latest nine games and are in much better form than Treaty United and have looked high in confidence lately!

条约联队VS韦克斯福德

北京时间26日上午，条约联队主场迎战德里城，进行爱尔兰甲级联赛的首轮比赛。按照欧洲的标准，这个联赛的水平是很低的。它比芬兰的第二梯队Ykkönen要差得多。一级联赛的大多数球员都是业余选手。大多数年轻而有才华的爱尔兰球员在很小的时候就离开爱尔兰去国外踢球。足球迷和我们这些严肃的、追求利润的赌客不能指望在这里看到一场特别有趣的比赛。事实上，这两支球队最近的五场比赛都没有进球超过两个。总进球数少于2.5球的概率比博彩公司估计的要高。事实上，根据我的专家意见，这种可能性是55%。我们不能让积分榜骗了我们。两支球队在纯粹的水平上有明显的差异——这是不可否认的!按照今天的阵容，客队有接近50%的获胜机会。在北京时间周五早上写这篇分析的时候，最大的，有时相当聪明的博彩公司提供的赔率在2.50左右，但我预计他们的赔率在开球前会下降，因为聪明的钱预计会堆积在客队身上!

主队在比赛的任何方面都无法与韦克斯福德匹敌。此外，别忘了条约曼联在最近的五次交锋中都没能击败韦克斯福德!韦克斯福德以2比5获胜，三场战平。此外，根据著名的德国网站Transfermarkt.com，东道主的阵容根本没有估值!当然，这并不完全正确，但很好地反映了团队的纯粹阶级!另一方面，韦克斯福德队的市场价值为10万欧元，但我认为14 -15万将是一个更现实的数字。客队对条约联队最大的优势在于进攻和防守质量。实际上，韦克斯福德丢了41个球，但他们的预期失球数要少得多，准确地说是34.12个。他们有39分，排名第五。他们正在激烈的争夺季后赛的席位，在季后赛中，排名2-5的球队有资格进入季后赛。他们的期望得分(xPTS)是43.09，我把他们排在我的力量排名的第4位，这反映了球队的纯粹等级，有最好的首发11人。东道主的防守一直很弱，这是他们这个赛季令人失望的主要原因。他们已经丢了48个球，拿到了34分——xPTS只有31.45分。客队在最近的九场比赛中只输了一场，状态比条约曼联好得多，最近看起来信心十足!