In my opinion Kashiwa have bigger chances to avoid loss in this game than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

Kashiwa have good mental advantage before this game as they won 3 of last 4 home matches against Marinos. In previous season they won against them 3:1 front of home crowd.

Obviously, Marinos are still favorite of this game, but is hard to see easy match for them today. In current season they failed to win in 7 of 13 away league matches and conceded 19 goals in the process. They coming for this game after very painful loss in derby game against Yokohama. Marinos lost 1:4 and for sure their confidence is not on the highest possible level. Their defensive formation don’t have stability at the moment. They conceded at least one goal in last 3 matches in a row. In current season Marinos conceded 30 goals in 25 rounds, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 40.1(!!!). It’s third-worst result in whole league. They also overperforming in attack as they scored 10 goals more than they should, according to the expected goals scored model.

Kashiwa improvement after the break is impressive, especially at the back. They didn’t lost in last 6 matches in all competitions and during that run they played against strong teams like Kobe or Nagoya. New central defender Tomoya Inukai added a lot of consistency for defensive formation. In last 6 matches Kashiwa conceded only 2 goals (!!!). They also don’t have big problems with goalscoring as they scored at least one goal in 5 of last 6 matches.

Kashiwa in current season went unbeaten in 9 of 13 home league matches and they have all required tools to improve this record today.

在我看来，柏华在这场比赛中避免输掉的机会比赌徒给我们的赔率要大。

柏华在这场比赛前有很好的心理优势，因为他们在最近4场主场对马里诺斯的比赛中赢了3场。在上个赛季，他们在主场3:1战胜了他们。

显然，马里诺仍然是这场比赛的最爱，但今天很难看到他们轻松的比赛。在本赛季，他们在13场客场比赛中有7场未能获胜，并在此过程中丢了19个球。在德比中痛失横滨之后，他们来到了这场比赛。马里诺斯以1:4的比分输掉了比赛，可以肯定的是，他们的信心没有达到最高水平。他们的防守阵型目前还不稳定。他们最近连续3场比赛至少丢了一个球。本赛季马里诺斯在25轮比赛中丢了30个球，但根据预期丢球模型，他们应该丢40.1个球(!!)。这是整个联盟倒数第三的成绩。根据预期进球模型，他们在进攻方面也表现得过于出色，比预期进球多进了10个。

柏泽在中场休息后的进步令人印象深刻，尤其是在后腰。在最近的6场比赛中，他们在所有比赛中都没有输过，在这6场比赛中，他们对阵的是像神户和名古屋这样的强队。新的中卫犬井朋也增加了防守阵型的稳定性。在过去的6场比赛中，柏华只丢了2个球(!!)他们在进球方面也没有太大的问题，因为他们在最近的6场比赛中有5场至少进了一个球。

Kashiwa在本赛季的13场主场比赛中有9场保持不败，他们今天都需要一些工具来提高这一记录。