In my opinion Karlsruher have bigger chances to avoid loss than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

Both teams with 7 points after 4 rounds, but guests looking better – especially in attack. Fortuna scored 7 goals, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 5.3. Karlsruher also scored 7 goals, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score even more (7.8). On the paper Fortuna looks good at the back – they conceded only two goals, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 4.4 (Karlsruher have 5.2 expected goals conceded).

Today I see troubles for Fortuna to keep clean sheet and control this game in the middle zone. Key defensive midfielder Sobottka is unavailable today, same as key central defender Hoffmann. It’s huge blow – Hoffmann is team captain and he have the highest number of accurate passes per game in whole team. Guests coming for this game with the strongest possible line up.

Karlsruher already looked promising in pre-season matches when they scored 2 goals against Liverpool. In current season they don’t have any problems with goalscoring – in 3 of 4 league matches they scored more than one goal. They failed to score on the road against Wehen (also good form, 7 points), but they created some big chances (1.54 expected goals scored). Karlsruher already played on away against leader of the table from Hamburg and avoided loss there (2:2).

I believe guests have all required tools to score at least one goal today and that should be enough to make at least one point.

在我看来，卡尔斯鲁厄有更大的机会避免损失比博彩公司想给我们建议的赔率。

两队在4轮比赛后都得到了7分，但客人看起来更好——尤其是在进攻上。Fortuna进了7球，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该进5.3球。卡尔斯鲁厄也进了7球，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该进得更多(7.8球)。从纸面上看，福尔图纳的后防线看起来不错——他们只丢了两个球，但根据预期丢球数模型，他们应该丢4.4个球(卡尔斯鲁厄的预期丢球数是5.2个)。

今天我看到福图纳要保持不失球和在中场控制比赛的麻烦了。关键的后腰索博特卡今天不能上场，同样重要的中卫霍夫曼也不能上场。这是一个巨大的打击——霍夫曼是球队队长，他是全队场均准确传球次数最多的球员。来参加这个游戏的客人都是最强的阵容。

卡尔斯鲁厄在季前赛对阵利物浦的比赛中打进2球，看起来很有希望。在这个赛季，他们在进球方面没有任何问题——4场联赛中有3场他们进了一个以上的球。他们在客场对阵温恩的比赛中没能进球(同样表现不错，7分)，但他们创造了一些大机会(预期进球数为1.54)。卡尔斯鲁厄已经在客场对阵积分榜第一的汉堡，避免了2:2的失利。

我相信今天所有的客人都需要至少一个进球的工具，这应该足以让我们至少得一分。