Adana Demirspor VS Racing Genk

Adana Demirspor welcome Genk for this UEFA Conference League Qualification final round battle at Cegeka Arena early Friday morning Beijing time. The hosts are a Turkish team and the visitors come from Belgium. This is the third-highest of UEFA's club competitions. Neither team are among the top-clubs in Europe so I expect both teams to be super-motivated here. I – along with many other professional football bettors as well as football journalists, was a little unsure if this competition would really interest even the middle-sized, not to mention the top - clubs in Europe.. However, it seems that most clubs  really do  want to do well in this competition! Even the Roma players and the iconic coach, Jose Mourinho were very happy winning the Conference League last year. Last season the winners were West Ham from England and they, too, were very happy being able to win something! Genk finished in second-place in the Belgian Jupiler Pro League last. Antwerp took the championship. I want to highlight that Genk took 10 more points than Club Brugge who, very surprisingly, even qualified for the playoffs in the Champions League last season! It is important to understand that as a whole the Jupiler Pro League is of better quality than the Turkish Super Lig. Sure, Fenerbahce, Besiktas and Galatasaray are big clubs with some great players but the level drops significantly, more than the bookies seem to realize, behind these three clubs.. Adana Demirspor are not a traditional - or big - club in Turkey - not even close. They finished in 4th place last season with a total of 69 points in their pocket. However, they were lucky in several balanced games. Indeed, their number of expected points (xPTS) was 64.12. I expect them to be clearly worse this season.. It is true that Turkish teams can be surprisingly strong at home.The home advantage in UEFA's competitions, between clubs from different countries, is almost always big, but it seems the bookies have given this factor too much emphasis here! With the expected lineups – based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based analysis, I see Genk as the narrow favorites at all in this game which means that with the current odds the Genk +0.5 handicap is the obvious bet here with a 67% chance of winning once again! Indeed, the biggest, sometimes somewhat smart bookies with the biggest betting limits have made a mistake and offer odds of only around 2.20 on Demirspor to win at the time of writing this analysis Thursday afternoon morning Beijing time. However, I expect the odds on Genk to drop before kickoff as smart money is expected to pile up on the visitors..

Let's keep in mind Genk are a much bigger club in terms of players total market value according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com. Their squad has an estimated total market value of around 134 million euros. This is slightly too low in my expert opinion. Demirspor's players, on the other hand, have a total market value of about 37 million which is clearly too high! I would set the number at around 30-31 million. Four of their players are overvalued in my expert opinion. Genk have performed pretty well in the Jupiler Pro League so far but have had a lot of bad luck.. This might affect the odds here.. In their most recent domestic league match they faced Charleroi, a potentially dangerous team, and it was a goalless draw.. However, Genk had 55% ball possession and were the much stronger team on the pitch. They recorded many more goal attempts (23-7), shots on goal, shots off goal (16-4), attacks as well as dangerous attacks. They were defeated by Olympiacos 1-2 on aggregate in the UEFA Europa League qualification earlier this month but would definitely have deserved to qualify! The first leg in Athens was a balanced battle. In Belgium Genk's J. Paintsil missed a penalty in the 27th minute. The same player was sent off in the 65th minute and this had a huge massive effect on the game! The visitors made it 1-1 in the dying minutes of the game. Demirspor were not impressive in their latest game in the Super Lig. It was a 0-0 draw as favorites away from home against Ankaragucu. The hosts recorded more shots on goal, goal attempts (18-12), corner kicks as well as shots off goal – 9-2. In the previous round of qualification they beat Osijek, a pretty mediocre team from Croatia, 7-4 on aggregate. Yes, they deserved to qualify but the difference between the teams was smaller than the 7-4 aggregate score would suggest.. Genk were the much better team in the first leg last week but won only 2-1. They had 66% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (13-7), shots on target, shots off target, corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks. They generated 3.43 in expected goals – Demirspor managed only 1.21. The hosts will have to be aggressive here to win and I believe this will offer Genk many chances for counter attacks. They are a mature team and them being able to defend at least a draw is a pretty probable result here..

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Adana Demirspor VS Racing Genk

北京时间周五凌晨，德米斯波尔欢迎亨克参加欧足联预选赛最后一轮比赛。东道主是土耳其队，客队来自比利时。这是欧足联第三高的俱乐部比赛。这两支球队都不是欧洲顶级俱乐部，所以我希望这两支球队在这里都有超强的动力。我和许多其他职业足球投注者以及足球记者一样，有点不确定这场比赛是否真的会让中型球队感兴趣，更不用说欧洲的顶级俱乐部了。然而，似乎大多数俱乐部真的想在这项比赛中取得好成绩!就连罗马球员和标志性教练穆里尼奥都对去年赢得联盟联赛冠军感到非常高兴。上赛季的冠军是来自英格兰的西汉姆联，他们也很高兴能赢得一些东西!亨克最后在比利时Jupiler职业联赛中获得第二名。安特卫普获得了冠军。我想强调的是，亨克比布鲁日俱乐部多拿了10分，令人惊讶的是，他们上赛季甚至进入了欧冠联赛的季后赛!重要的是要明白，作为一个整体，木星职业联赛比土耳其超级联赛质量更好。当然，费内巴切、贝西克塔斯和加拉塔萨雷都是拥有一些伟大球员的豪门，但在这三家俱乐部之后，他们的水平明显下降，博彩公司似乎没有意识到这一点。在土耳其，阿达纳德米斯波尔不是一家传统的俱乐部，也不是一家大俱乐部。上赛季他们以69分的成绩排在第四位。然而，他们在一些平衡的游戏中是幸运的。实际上，他们的期望值(xPTS)是64.12。我预计他们这个赛季会更糟糕。的确，土耳其球队在主场的实力令人惊讶。在欧足联的比赛中，来自不同国家的俱乐部之间的主场优势几乎总是很大的，但似乎博彩公司在这里过分强调了这个因素!根据预期的阵容-基于我复杂的，强烈的基于数据的分析，我认为Genk在这场比赛中是狭窄的热门，这意味着以目前的赔率，Genk +0.5的障碍是明显的赌注，有67%的机会再次获胜!事实上，在北京时间周四下午写这篇分析时，最大的、有时有点聪明的博彩公司犯了一个错误，他们对德米斯波尔的赔率只有2.20左右。然而，我预计亨克的赔率在开球前会下降，因为聪明的钱预计会堆积在客队身上。

让我们记住，根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，从球员的总市值来看，亨克是一家更大的俱乐部。据估计，这支球队的总市值约为1.34亿欧元。以我的专业意见来看，这个价格太低了。另一方面，德米斯波尔球员的总市值约为3700万欧元，这显然太高了!我估计这个数字在3000万到3100万之间。在我看来，他们的四名球员被高估了。到目前为止，Genk在Jupiler职业联赛中表现不错，但运气不好。这可能会影响这里的赔率…在他们最近的一场国内联赛中，他们面对的是一支潜在的危险球队沙勒罗瓦，结果是一场0比0的平局。然而，亨克有55%的控球率，是球场上更强大的球队。他们的进球次数(23-7次)、射正、射偏(16-4次)、进攻和危险进攻都更多。在本月早些时候的欧联杯预选赛中，他们以总比分1-2不敌奥林匹亚科斯，但他们绝对有资格出线!在雅典的第一回合比赛是一场势均力敌的战斗。在比利时，亨克的J. Paintsil在第27分钟罚丢了一个点球。同一名球员在第65分钟被罚下，这对比赛产生了巨大的影响!客队在比赛最后几分钟将比分扳成1比1。德米斯波尔在最近的中超联赛中表现不佳。客场0-0战平安卡拉古库，成为夺冠热门。东道主的射门次数、尝试次数(18胜12负)、角球次数和射偏次数均以9胜2负增加。在上一轮预选赛中，他们以总比分7-4击败了一支相当平庸的克罗地亚球队奥西耶克。是的，他们应该出线，但两队之间的差距小于7-4的总比分。在上周的首回合比赛中，亨克队表现要好得多，但只赢了2-1。他们有66%的控球率，并且记录了更多的射门次数(13-7次)、射正、射偏、角球、进攻和防守

ngerous攻击。他们创造了3.43个预期进球，而德米斯波尔只创造了1.21个。东道主在这里必须要有侵略性才能取胜，我相信这会给亨克很多反击的机会。他们是一支成熟的球队，他们有能力防守至少一场平局是很有可能的结果。