Minnesota United FC VS Colorado Rapids

Minnesota welcome Colorado for this MLS clash at Allianz Field Thursday morning Beijing time. This league has raised its level a lot during the last 10 or so years. Clubs from the US and Canada play in this league. Now Messi Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets have joined David Beckham's Inter Miami which brought a lot of media attention to MLS and Inter Miami as well. This is a good thing for this league moving forward. We can expect a match of decent level here between these two teams. There is, however, a significant difference in terms of pure class between the two teams!  Let's remember that the home advantage in the MLS is bigger than in many other leagues. Minnesota, however, have been disappointing at Allianz Field so far this season.. However, it seems that the bookies have given this factor too much emphasis here.. It is true, though, that Minnesota do not have the very best fans by the MLS standards. However, Colorado have been abysmal on the road so far this season! Indeed, they have won just two away games in the MLS this season. Their score difference away from home is horribly bad – 9:24 -  to be precise. They are often way too passive in away games which usually results in them being under too much pressure – especially in the second half when fatigue often becomes an issue. Their defenders seemingly cannot handle this pressure for the full 90 minutes.. Only one other team has a worse score difference in away games.. Furthemore, visitors have lost three games in a row and are clearly low in confidence. I also do not trust their coach.. They have allowed a whopping 10 goals in their last three games and have looked very shaky defensively. Even so, the biggest, sometimes somewhat smart bookies with the largest stake limits offer Minnesota odds of around 1.70 to take all three points. This is, based on my sophisticated, in-depth - strongly data-based analysis, way too high! Their chance of winning is 66%. According to a well-known and well-respected German website, Transfermarkt.com Minnesota are clearly the bigger team. Their squad has an estimated market value of around 40 million euros. This is definitely too low. The Colorado squad has a market value of about 30 million which is massively too high in my expert opinion. I would set the number at around 21-22 million.

Let's keep in mind  that Minnesota have clear edge over the visitors in all areas of the game! They took many more points than Colorado last season already..They currently occupy the 10th place in the Western Conference where both teams play. They have 32 points to their account. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is bigger – 35.01 to be precise. Teams who finish 1-9th place have a chance to play in the Playoffs. Indeed, hosts are surely extremely motivated here. The visitors' season, on the other hand, is ruined already.  The main rationale behind this pick is to oppose the poor Colorado! I have been surprised by their very bad season and have reacted accordingly. They have been extremely poor offensively scoring just 16 goals in the MLS. This is clearly the smallest number in this conference! They can improve in this area of the game but not a lot.. Their number of expected goals (xG) is a little bigger – 19.45. However, the defense is mediocre. Indeed, they have allowed ”just” 34 goals. Minnesota' number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is just 27.12 but they have conceded 31 goals. Their defense has an excellent structure but the midfielders do not always take part in defending actively enough. They have netted the ball 29 times but their number of expected goals (xG) is bigger – 33.44. It is true that their offense is not creative enough - or have enough individual skill for them to be a top-4 team in this conference..  Luckily, the visitors' defense is not great. In their latest game they faced the Seattle Sounders at home and it was a 1-1 draw. The hosts generated 1.74 in xG – Seattle recorded only 0.54.. Minnesota had 54% ball possession and also recorded many more shots on goal, goal attempts (16-6), total passes, completed passes, attacks (135-89) and dangerous attacks – 88-38.. Colorado were abysmal in their latest game losing to Los Angeles FC 0-4 away from home. Yes, they had some chances to score but – after all, only recorded 0.61 in xG. The hosts recorded 20 goal attempts and generated 2.63 in xG.

明尼苏达联队VS科罗拉多急流队

北京时间周四上午，明尼苏达队将在安联球场迎战科罗拉多队。在过去的10年左右的时间里，这个联赛的水平提高了很多。来自美国和加拿大的俱乐部参加这个联赛。现在梅西，乔迪·阿尔巴和塞尔吉奥·布斯克茨已经加盟了大卫·贝克汉姆的国际迈阿密，这给美国职业足球大联盟和国际迈阿密带来了很多媒体的关注。这对联盟的发展是一件好事。我们可以期待这两支球队之间有一场不错的比赛。然而，两支球队在纯粹的阶级方面有很大的不同!让我们记住，美国职业足球大联盟的主场优势比许多其他联盟都要大。然而，本赛季到目前为止，明尼苏达在安联球场的表现令人失望。然而，似乎博彩公司在这里过分强调了这个因素。诚然，按照美国职业棒球大联盟的标准，明尼苏达并没有最好的球迷。然而，本赛季到目前为止，科罗拉多队在路上的表现非常糟糕!事实上，他们本赛季在大联盟只赢了两场客场比赛。他们在客场的比分差距大得可怕——确切地说，是9:24。他们在客场比赛中往往太被动，这通常会导致他们承受太大的压力——尤其是在下半场，疲劳经常成为一个问题。他们的后卫似乎无法在整整90分钟内应对这种压力。只有另一支球队在客场比赛中比分差更大。此外，客队连输三场，显然信心不足。我也不相信他们的教练。他们在最近三场比赛中丢了10个球，防守看起来非常不稳定。即便如此，最大的，有时有点聪明的博彩公司也有最大的赌注限制，为明尼苏达提供1.70左右的赔率，以获得所有三分。这是，基于我复杂的，深入的，强有力的基于数据的分析，太高了!他们获胜的几率是66%。根据德国一家知名且备受尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com，明尼苏达显然是一支更大的球队。这支球队的市值估计在4000万欧元左右。这肯定太低了。科罗拉多队的市场价值约为3000万，在我的专家看来，这太高了。我把这个数字定在2100万到2200万之间。

让我们记住，明尼苏达队在比赛的所有领域都有明显的优势!他们上赛季已经比科罗拉多多拿了很多分，他们目前在西部排名第十，两支球队都在西部比赛。他们的账户上有32分。它们的期望值(xPTS)更大——准确地说是35.01。排名第1-9的球队有机会参加季后赛。事实上，东道主在这里肯定是非常积极的。另一方面，旅游季节已经被毁了。这个选择背后的主要理由是反对可怜的科罗拉多!我对他们这个赛季的糟糕表现感到惊讶，并做出了相应的反应。他们在进攻端表现非常糟糕，在美国职业大联盟中只进了16球。这显然是本次会议中人数最少的一个!他们在这方面可以提高，但不是很多。他们的预期进球数(xG)稍大一些，为19.45。然而，防守是平庸的。事实上，他们只丢了34个球。明尼苏达的预期失球数(xGA)只有27.12，但他们已经丢了31个球。他们的防守结构很好，但中场球员并不总是积极参与防守。虽然进球29次，但期望进球数(xG)更高，达到33.44个。的确，他们的进攻缺乏创造力，或者说他们的个人技术不足以让他们成为这个联盟的前四强。幸运的是，客队的防守不是很好。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场与西雅图海湾人队打成1-1平局。东道主在xG产生了1.74 -西雅图只有0.54。森林狼队有54%的控球率，并且有更多的射门次数、射门次数(16-6)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、攻击次数(135-89)和危险攻击次数(88-38)。科罗拉多队在最近一场客场0-4输给洛杉矶FC队的比赛中表现糟糕。是的，他们有一些得分的机会，但是——毕竟，他们在上一场比赛中只拿到了0.61分。东道主有20次进球，全场进球2.63个。