An interesting game to bet on!
2023-08-30

Tapio

外籍分析师

欧冠

08/31 03:00

已完赛

埃因霍温
1:0
流浪者
解读理由:

PSV Eindhoven VS Glasgow Rangers


PSV welcome Rangers for this UEFA Champions League qualification final round second leg clash at Philips Stadion in Eindhoven early Thursday morning Beijing time. The hosts are a Dutch team, the visitors came from Scotland. Football fans and us serious-football fans can expect a match of pretty good level here. However, I do not believe it will be a highly entertaining match after all. Rangers will surely, typically for Scottish teams, fight very hard – especially through physical play – with a lot of tackles. I have mentioned many times before that Rangers and Celtic – clearly the biggest teams in Scotland, are very often overvalued in the Champions League and UEFA Europa League. The main reason is probably the fact that these teams are too dominant in Scotland and they do not have a chance to play enough really competitive games. The opponent in their domestic league usually defends very hard and Rangers and Celtic control the ball. In international games it is different as Rangers are usually very clear underdogs – especially away from home.- I believe their defense will be under huge pressure here right from the beginning.. The biggest, sometimes rather sharp bookies offer PSV odds of around 1.55 to win during the 90 minutes of play. This is too high as based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based analysis they have a 73% chance of bringing me fans and I yet another winner betting on UEFA's club competitions. Yes, they sometimes upset even big teams, but these almost always happen at home, boosted by very enthusiastic fans. Yes, in 2022 Rangers did make it to the Europa League final but lost to Frankfurt, who are not a top-5 team in the German Bundesliga. Let's not forget that there is a big difference between the Champions League and Europa League..

Last season Rangers did make it to the Champions League Group stage but lost all six games! They were totally outplayed in all games. For example Ajax, a team who are about the same level as PSV beat Rangers 4-0 in the Netherlands and 3-1 in Glasgow! Rangers' score difference in the group stage was almost hilariously abysmal 2:22. A goal difference like this is very rare in this competion.According to a well-known and well-respected German website, Transfermarkt.cm PSV are a much bigger team. Their squad has an estimated market value of over 180 million euros. This is a little too low. The Rangers squad has a market value of about 120 million which is massively too much in my expert opinion. I would set the number at around 85-87 million. Rangers were very lucky to avoid defeat in the first leg. PSV were the much better team having 65% ball possession. They also recorded many more goal attempts (20-11), shots of goal (6-2), total passes, completed passes, attack and dangerous attacks.. It was a 2-2 draw. Before this PSV won nine games in a row. Lastly I want to mention that Rangers have lost several key players after last season. The home advantage here is massive as the PSV fans are extremely enthusiastic.



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埃因霍温VS格拉斯哥流浪者


北京时间周四凌晨,埃因霍温的飞利浦球场将迎来与流浪者队的欧冠资格赛决赛次回合比赛。东道主是荷兰队,客队来自苏格兰。足球迷和我们这些严肃的球迷可以期待一场相当高水平的比赛。然而,我不相信这将是一场非常有趣的比赛。对于典型的苏格兰球队来说,流浪者队肯定会打得很辛苦,尤其是通过身体对抗,有很多铲断。我之前已经多次提到流浪者和凯尔特人——显然是苏格兰最大的球队,在欧冠和欧联杯中经常被高估。最主要的原因可能是这些球队在苏格兰的统治力太强,他们没有机会踢足够多的真正有竞争力的比赛。他们国内联赛的对手通常防守非常强硬,流浪者和凯尔特人控制着球权。在国际比赛中情况就不一样了,流浪者通常都是明显的劣势——尤其是在客场。我相信他们的防守从一开始就会面临巨大的压力。最大的,有时相当敏锐的博彩公司给出了埃因霍温在90分钟比赛中获胜的赔率约为1.55。这太高了,因为根据我复杂的、基于数据的分析,他们有73%的机会给我带来球迷,而我又是一个赌欧足联俱乐部比赛的赢家。是的,他们有时甚至会让强队失望,但这几乎总是发生在主场,受到非常热情的球迷的鼓舞。是的,在2022年,流浪者队确实进入了欧联杯决赛,但输给了法兰克福,后者不是德甲前五名的球队。我们不要忘记欧冠和欧联杯有很大的不同。

上赛季流浪者队确实打进了欧冠小组赛,但是6场比赛全部输掉了!他们在所有的比赛中都被完全打败了。比如阿贾克斯,一支与埃因霍温水平相当的球队在荷兰4-0击败了流浪者队,在格拉斯哥3-1击败了流浪者队!流浪者队在小组赛的比分差是2分22秒,简直糟透了。像这样的净胜球在这项赛事中是非常罕见的。据德国一家知名且备受尊敬的网站Transfermarkt称。埃因霍温是一支更强大的球队。这支球队的市场价值估计超过1.8亿欧元。这有点太低了。游骑兵队的市场价值约为1.2亿美元,这在我的专家看来是太多了。我估计这个数字在8500万到8700万之间。流浪者队非常幸运地在第一回合避免了失败。埃因霍温是一支更好的球队,控球率为65%。他们的进球次数(20胜11负)、射门次数(6胜2负)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数也更多。双方以2比2战平。在此之前,埃因霍温赢得了九连胜。最后我想提一下,游骑兵队在上个赛季之后失去了几名关键球员。这里的主场优势是巨大的,因为埃因霍温球迷非常热情。

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