Independiente VS Velez Sarsfield

Independiente welcome Velez Sarsfield for this Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional round 2 clash at Estadio Libertadores de América in Avellaneda Monday morning Beijing time. We can expect a match of lower-than-average level here between these two teams. This League is of mediocre level by global standards but is the second-best league in South America. This league is, similarly to many other South American leagues – for example the Brazilian Serie A - a low-scoring one on average. Here the goal expectancy is extremely low – even lower than the bookies think. In my expert opinion, the probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 78%. Aa draw would most certainly not surprise anyone. The probability of this result is 34% and it would be enough to bring my fans and me yet another winner betting on Argentinian football with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap option Velez Sarsfield. The biggest, sometimes rather smart bookies that accept the biggest bets from customers see the visitors as favorites here – offering them odds of around 2.60 to take all three points. This is too definitely too low! Yes, the home advantage is there but Independiente do not have very good fans. Moreover, they have not won any of their latest four games at home during the 90 minutes of play. They did, in fact, lose three of the four games at Estadio Libertadores de América which has understandably upset their fans. I do not expect the atmosphere to be too good here.. According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com the visitors area much bigger club. Their squad has a total market value of around 43 million euros. This too low - the fair market value is surely over 50 million in my expert opinion. The Independiente players are valued at only about 21 million.

The hosts have bene in poor form lately and are clear low in confidence. I also do not fully trust their coach as a leader – or in terms of tactics. They have won just one of their latest six games during the 90 minutes of play. They finished in 24th place in Liga Profesional that was played before Copa de la Liga Profesional started. They took 28 points and had a very bad score difference. Indeed, they scored just 23 goals. Their defense was leaky and they allowed 32 goals. Velez Sarsfield, on the the hand, scored one more goal but their defense was much better than that of Independiente’s – especially in terms of structure. However, Velez Sarsfield’s season was, in all honesty, a big disappointment. They took 28 points but were massively unlucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). They would have deserved 35 or 36 points. They have potential for big improvement! They beat Barracas Central 1-0 in their latest game and were clearly the better team generating much more in xG – 1.23 – 0.09. They also had many more goal attempts, attacks and dangerous attacks. They have lost just one of their latest eight games during the 90 minutes of play.

独立VS Velez Sarsfield

北京时间周一上午，西甲联赛第二轮阿根廷队将在阿韦亚内达解放者体育场迎战萨斯菲尔德。我们可以期待这两支球队之间的比赛低于平均水平。以全球标准来看，这个联赛处于中等水平，但却是南美洲第二好的联赛。这个联赛和许多其他南美联赛(比如巴西甲级联赛)一样，平均得分很低。这里的进球预期非常低，甚至比博彩公司认为的还要低。在我看来，总进球数少于2.5个的概率是78%。平局肯定不会让任何人感到惊讶。这个结果的概率是34%，这足以让我和我的球迷在下注阿根廷足球时获得另一个赢家，推荐的+0.5进球障碍选项是贝莱斯·萨斯菲尔德。最大的，有时是相当聪明的庄家接受顾客的最大赌注，他们认为游客是最受欢迎的，给他们提供2.60左右的赔率来获得所有的三分。这绝对太低了!是的，主场优势是存在的，但是独立队没有很好的球迷。此外，在最近的四场主场比赛中，他们在90分钟的比赛中没有赢过一场。事实上，他们在阿萨姆卡解放者体育场输掉了四场比赛中的三场，这让他们的球迷感到沮丧是可以理解的。我不期望这里的气氛会太好。根据德国一家知名且受人尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com，客队的规模要大得多。这支球队的总市值约为4300万欧元。这个价格太低了——在我看来，公平的市场价值肯定超过5000万。独立队球员的身价仅为2100万英镑。

东道主最近状态不佳，显然信心不足。我也不完全信任他们的教练作为一个领导者，或者在战术方面。在最近的六场比赛中，他们在90分钟的比赛中只赢了一场。他们在职业联赛开始前的职业联赛中排名第24位。他们拿了28分，比分差非常大。事实上，他们只进了23个球。他们的防守漏洞百出，丢了32个球。另一方面，萨斯菲尔德多进了一个球，但他们的防守比独立队要好得多——尤其是在结构方面。然而，说实话，萨斯菲尔德的这个赛季非常令人失望。他们拿了28分，但在期望积分(xPTS)方面非常不走运。他们应该得到35或36分。他们有很大的改进潜力!他们在最近一场比赛中以1比0击败了巴萨中央，并且在xG - 1.23 - 0.09的数据中，他们显然是更好的球队。他们也有更多的进球尝试，进攻和危险的进攻。在最近的八场比赛中，他们在90分钟的比赛中只输了一场。