Sarmiento Junin VS Boca Juniors

Sarmiento Junin host Boca Juniors for this Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional round 2 clash at Estadio Eva Peron in Junin early Monday morning Beijing time. We can expect a match of mediocre level here between these two teams. This League is of mediocre level by global standards but is the second-best league in South America. This league is, similarly to many other South American leagues – for example the Brazilian Serie A - a low-scoring one on average. Here the goal expectancy is exceptionally low – even lower than the bookies think. In my expert opinion, the probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 72%. Furthermore, a draw would most certainly not surprise anyone. The probability of this result is 34% and it would be enough to bring my fans and me yet another winner betting on Argentinian football with the recommended +0.5 handicap option on Sarmiento Junin. The biggest, sometimes pretty sharp bookies that accept the biggest bets from customers see the visitors as favorites here – offering them odds of around 2.65 to take all three points. This is too definitely too low. The home advantage in this league is bigger than in most good or top-leagues. Some 45-46% matches are home wins. The home advantage is usually at its biggest when a home team is a little weaker than the visitors by pure class. This is the case here. Sarmiento Junin do not have the very best fans but have still been very strong at home recently. Indeed, they have lost just one of their latest 10 games in front of their fans! With today’s lineups, taking the home advantage into account, Sarmiento Junin deserve to be slim favorites here. Boca Juniors played a very tough game on Thursday (Argentina time) in Copa Libertadores, first leg, against Racing Club, a dangerous opponent. Having just two full days to recover and prepare for this match is far from optimal in professional football. The hosts, on the other hand, have had a week to prepare for this game – a clear advantage for them here. It seems the bookies have not given this factor enough emphasis. Boca Juniors too have a pretty deep squad but squad rotating is expected here from Boca Junior’s coach and this does affect their chances here.. The second leg is very important and will be played on Thursday.

Boca Juniors are one of the biggest clubs in terms of financial resources and players’ total market value according to a well-known German website, Transfermarkt.com. They have also achieved a lot of trophies in the past. However, the last Liga Profesional season which was played before Copa de la Liga Profesional started, was a massive disappointment! They finished in 7th place with 44 points to their account. Their offense was very lame and they scored just 30 goals! River Plate, the winners, scored 50 goals. However, Sarmiento’s offense is weaker. Both teams can improve in this area of the game. The hosts’ defense is not much worse than that of Boca’s – they allowed just two goals more than Boca (26-24). Boca’s number of expected points (xPTS) was a bit lower than the actual. I was forced to lower their power rating - that reflects the teams’ pure class with the best starting eleven – many times during the Liga Profesional last season.. Yes, they have potential for much better but the bookies seem to give this factor too much emphasis here.. Furthermore, according to my sources Boca’s team spirit is also far from optimal.. Yes, they have improved their game in July and August but still have a lot of work to do if they want to fight for top-positions in this competition. Sarmiento Junin took 30 points in Liga Profesional but would have deserved 35.10 in terms of xPTS. They beat Tigre, a strong team than last season’s results would suggest, in their most recent game 2-0 at home. However, Tigre recorded a little more in expected goals (xG) 0.76-0.81 to be precise. Boca played a goalless draw last Thursday but recorded a little more than Racing Club in xG – 0.76-0.61. Boca were clear favorites in this game - priced around 1.95 to win. Their offense was once again pretty lame in this game – lacking creativity and speed..

萨米恩托·朱宁VS博卡青年队

北京时间周一凌晨，阿根廷西甲联赛第二轮比赛将在朱宁伊娃贝隆球场进行，主场迎战博卡青年队。我们可以预期这两支球队的比赛水平一般。以全球标准来看，这个联赛处于中等水平，但却是南美洲第二好的联赛。这个联赛和许多其他南美联赛(比如巴西甲级联赛)一样，平均得分很低。这里的进球预期非常低，甚至比博彩公司认为的还要低。在我看来，总进球数少于2.5个的概率是72%。此外，平局肯定不会让任何人感到意外。这个结果的概率是34%，这足以让我和我的球迷在下注阿根廷足球时获得另一个赢家，推荐的+0.5障碍选项是萨米恩托·朱宁。最大的，有时是相当精明的博彩公司，接受顾客最大的赌注，把游客视为最受欢迎的人——提供2.65左右的赔率来获得所有的三分。这显然太低了。这个联赛的主场优势比大多数优秀联赛或顶级联赛都要大。45-46%的比赛是主场胜利。主场优势通常在主队实力略弱于客队时达到最大。这就是这里的情况。萨米恩托·朱宁没有最好的球迷，但最近在主场仍然很强大。事实上，在最近的10场比赛中，他们在球迷面前只输了一场!从今天的阵容来看，考虑到主场的优势，萨米恩托·朱宁应该是最受欢迎的。周四(阿根廷时间)，博卡青年队在解放者杯的首回合比赛中与危险的对手竞技俱乐部进行了一场非常艰难的比赛。只有整整两天的时间来恢复和准备这场比赛，这在职业足球中远非最佳状态。另一方面，东道主有一个星期的时间来准备这场比赛，这对他们来说是一个明显的优势。似乎博彩公司没有给予这个因素足够的重视。博卡青年队的阵容也很有深度，但博卡青年队的教练希望轮换阵容，这确实会影响他们在这里的机会。第二回合非常重要，将在周四进行。

根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，博卡青年队在财政资源和球员总市场价值方面是最大的俱乐部之一。他们在过去也获得了很多奖杯。然而，在西甲联赛开始之前的最后一个赛季，是一个巨大的失望!他们以44分排名第七。他们的进攻很差劲，他们只进了30个球!胜利者河床队进了50个球。然而，萨米恩托的进攻较弱。两队都可以在这方面有所提高。东道主的防守并不比博卡差多少——他们只比博卡多丢了两个球(26-24)。博卡队的预期得分(xPTS)略低于实际得分。在上赛季的职业联赛中，我不得不多次降低他们的能力评级——这反映了球队拥有最好的首发11人的纯粹等级。是的，他们有潜力做得更好，但博彩公司似乎在这里过于强调这个因素。此外，根据我的消息来源，博卡的团队精神也远没有达到最佳状态。是的，他们在7月和8月的比赛中有所提高，但如果他们想在这次比赛中争夺榜首，他们还有很多工作要做。萨米恩托·朱宁在西甲联赛中得到了30分，但如果以积分计算，他应该得到35.10分。在最近的主场比赛中，他们以2比0击败了老虎队，这是一支比上个赛季更强大的球队。但是，Tigre在预期目标(xG)方面的记录稍高一些，准确地说是0.76-0.81。博卡在上周四踢了一场0比0的平局，但在xG - 0.76-0.61的比分中比竞技俱乐部略高。博卡在这场比赛中是最受欢迎的，他们的胜率在1.95左右。他们的进攻在这场比赛中又一次很差劲——缺乏创造力和速度。