Villarreal VS FC Barcelona

Villarreal host Barcelona for this LaLiga round 3 battle at Estadio de la Ceramica early Monday morning Beijing time. This is the second-best league in the world. My fans and I have achieved very strong long-term results betting on this great league and we have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity here!  Football fans and us serious football bettors can expect a clash of very high level here! As the season has only recently kicked off, it is crucial to take a look at the last season when analyzing this big match. Players always come and go in football but not that much has, after all, changed from last season.. Villarreal defended very well as a whole last season but it is realistic to expect them to do a little worse in this area of the game this season. They conceded just 40 goals in LaLiga last season but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) was higher though. Here they will most probably be forced to defend hard as Barcelona love keeping the ball, as all football enthusiasts probably know. I see this match as more low-scoring than the bookies do. Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based analysis the probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 51%.   Barca are, of course, the better team in all areas of the game and deserve to be the favorites. However, they will be without the extremely talented Pedri as well as Araujo and Raphinha. Martinez is questionable. The hosts will have to manage without Coquelin and Moreno.  Taking the massive home advantage into account I see the visitors having an only 41% chance of taking all three points here. Villarreal have very loyal and loud fans - even by Spanish standards - who offer them a huge boost! On the betting market Barcelona are priced only at around 2.00 to win which is clearly too low. We will go with Villarreal +0.5 goals handicap option here to win once again betting on this awesome league! 

Villarreal finished in 5th place last season with 64 points to their account. This is also their place in my power rating this season. This rating reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible starting eleven. Barcelona are, of course, in first place in this ranking. I do not think many professional bettors or football fans disagree on that.. However, the very biggest teams on the planet – Barcelona, Real Madrid, Manchester United, Juventus etc. have a massive number of fans all around the world – many of whom also bet on their favorite team.. The bookies, of course, are aware of this and often offer these big teams even lower odds than they ”should” - based on their actual probability estimation. Most bookies do, after all, usually aim at making a secure profit no matter what the result of a given game is.. This often leads to these specific teams plus some other teams as well, being overvalued (way too low odds) on the betting market. This does not, however, mean that these teams would never be worth a bet!

Villarreal took a confidence boosting 1-0 win over Mallorca in their most recent game! Rather weirdly, the match was expected to be a very balanced one according to the bookies. Both teams were priced around 2.75 to win when the match started. However, during and before the game it was clear that the betting market had underestimated Villarreal! They fully deserved the win and could easily have scored two or even three goals! Indeed, they generated 2.42 in expected goals (xG). Mallorca, on the other hand, generated just 0.44. Furthermore, the visitors recorded many more shots on target, shots off goal, goal attempts (15-8), attacks (120-79) as well as dangerous attacks. In the opening round they lost to a strong team, Real Betis, who finished in 6th place last season. It was a 1-2 defeat at home but Villarreal would have deserved at least a point. Villarreal generated 1.19 in expected goals (xG). Betis,on the other hand, generated 0.89. Furthermore, the hosts recorded many shots off goal (6-2), goal attempts (18-12), attacks (116-78) as well as dangerous attacks – 63-37. Both teams had five shots on target. 

Barcelona comfortably took the championship last season grabbing 10 more points than their arch-rivals Real Madrid. However, in the UEFA Champions League they did not even qualify for the playoffs. They then went on to play in the UEFA Europa League but Manchester United beat them.. Barca finished the season with 88 points in their pocket but this was massively more than they would have deserved in terms of expected points (xPTS)  - 77.98 to be precise. Barcelona netted the ball 75 times in LaLiga last season but this number is a bit misleading. Their number of xG was 84.12! I do not expect them to score 80 goals+ this season though.. Lewandowski is one year older and is undoubtedly past his prime.. Other teams will also surely be able to better defend against Barca this season than last season. Yes, their defense was amazingly solid and they allowed just 20 goals in LaLiga. I want to highlight that their number of xGA was significantly bigger - 34.09! Barca were disappointing in the opening round – failing to beat a lowly team, Getafe, away from home as big favorites. No goals were scored. Both teams received a red card in this game. Barca in the first half - and Getafe early in the second half. Barca generated just 1.11 in xG – Getafe managed 0.62. In their most recent match Barca comfortably beat Cadiz at home as huge favorites but Cadiz recorded 1.41 in xG and Barca did not fully impress me despite the whopping 75% ball possession. Yes, they deserved the three points and did generate much more than Cadiz in xG.  There were some weaknesses in their defensive structure. No, the visitors could not capitalize on these vulnerabilities but Villarreal are, of course, a much better team and can be deadly on counter-attacks.. They have proved this many times even in the UEFA Champions League. For example back in 2021 they defeated the mighty Bayern Munich in the play offs as gigantic underdogs. Being the underdog suits their game better than playing as a big favorite - trying to break the opponent's defense through slow-paced attacks with a lot of passing.. The bookies do not seem to fully realize this..

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比利亚雷亚尔VS巴塞罗那

北京时间周一凌晨，西甲第三轮比利亚雷亚尔主场迎战巴塞罗那。这是世界上第二好的联赛。我的球迷和我已经取得了非常强大的长期结果投注这个伟大的联赛，我们还有一个非常有利可图的投注机会在这里!足球迷和我们这些认真的足球投注者可以期待一场非常高水平的冲突!由于新赛季才刚刚开始，在分析这场重要比赛时，回顾一下上个赛季是至关重要的。足球场上球员总是来来去去，但毕竟和上赛季相比并没有太大的变化。上赛季比利亚雷亚尔的防守很好，但是我们可以期望他们本赛季在这方面做得更差一些。上赛季他们在西甲只丢了40个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)更高。在这里，他们很可能会被迫努力防守，因为巴塞罗那喜欢控球，所有足球爱好者可能都知道。我认为这场比赛比博彩公司认为的更低。根据我的数据分析，总进球数少于2.5个的概率是51%。当然，巴萨在比赛的各个方面都表现得更好，应该成为最受欢迎的球队。然而，他们将失去极具天赋的佩德里以及阿劳霍和拉菲尼亚。马丁内斯值得怀疑。东道主将不得不在没有科奎林和莫雷诺的情况下应付。考虑到巨大的主场优势，我认为客队在这里拿到三分的机会只有41%。比利亚雷亚尔拥有非常忠诚和响亮的球迷——即使以西班牙的标准来看也是如此——他们给了他们巨大的鼓舞!在博彩市场上，巴萨的胜率仅为2.00左右，这显然太低了。我们将选择比利亚雷亚尔+0.5球障碍选项，再次赢得这个令人敬畏的联赛!

比利亚雷亚尔上赛季以64分排名第五。这也是他们在本赛季我的力量评分中的位置。这个排名反映了球队的纯粹等级，有最好的首发11人。当然，巴塞罗那在这个排名中名列第一。我想很多职业投注者或足球迷都同意这一点。然而，这个星球上最伟大的球队——巴塞罗那、皇家马德里、曼联、尤文图斯等在世界各地都有大量的球迷——他们中的许多人也会为他们最喜欢的球队下注。当然，博彩公司也意识到了这一点，根据他们的实际概率估计，他们给这些大球队开出的赔率甚至比他们“应该”开出的赔率还要低。毕竟，无论比赛结果如何，大多数博彩公司的目标都是获得稳定的利润。这通常会导致这些特定的球队以及其他一些球队在博彩市场上被高估(赔率太低)。然而，这并不意味着这些球队永远不值得一赌!

比利亚雷亚尔在他们最近的一场比赛中以1-0战胜了马洛卡。奇怪的是，根据博彩公司的说法，这场比赛预计将是一场非常平衡的比赛。比赛开始时，两队的胜率都在2.75左右。然而，在比赛期间和比赛前，很明显，博彩市场低估了比利亚雷亚尔!他们完全配得上这场胜利，他们本可以轻松地进两个甚至三个球!实际上，它们产生了2.42个预期目标(xG)。另一方面，马略卡岛的生育率仅为0.44。此外，客队的射正、射偏、射门次数(15胜8负)、进攻次数(120胜79负)和危险进攻次数也更多。在首轮比赛中，他们输给了上赛季排名第六的强队皇家贝蒂斯。虽然在主场1-2落败，但比利亚雷亚尔至少应该得到1分。比利亚雷亚尔的预期进球数为1.19。另一方面，贝蒂斯产生了0.89。此外，东道主还记录了许多射门(6胜2负)、射门次数(18胜12负)、进攻次数(116胜78负)和危险进攻(63胜37负)。两队都有5次射正。

巴萨上赛季以比死敌皇马多10分的成绩轻松夺得联赛冠军。然而，在欧洲冠军联赛中，他们甚至没有资格进入季后赛。之后他们参加了欧联杯，但被曼联击败了。巴萨以88分结束了这个赛季，但这远远超过了他们应得的期望积分(xPTS)——准确地说是77.98分。巴萨上赛季在西甲进球75次，但这个数字有点误导人。他们的xG数量是84

点!不过，我不指望他们本赛季能进80 +球。莱万多夫斯基老了一岁，毫无疑问已经过了巅峰期。其他球队也肯定能比上赛季更好地防守巴萨。是的，他们的防守非常稳固，他们在西甲只丢了20个球。我想强调的是，他们的xGA数量要大得多——34.09!巴萨在首轮的表现令人失望——没能在客场击败实力较弱的球队赫塔菲。没有进球。在这场比赛中，两队都吃了红牌。巴萨在上半场，赫塔菲在下半场早些时候。巴萨在g赛季的进球仅为1.11，赫塔菲则为0.62。在他们最近的一场比赛中，巴萨在主场轻松击败了加的斯，但加的斯的xG值为1.41，尽管巴萨的控球率高达75%，但他们并没有给我留下深刻的印象。是的，他们配得上这三分，而且在xG上比加的斯贡献更多。他们的防守结构有一些弱点。不，客队不能利用这些弱点，但比利亚雷亚尔当然是一支更好的球队，在反击时可以致命。他们已经多次证明了这一点，即使是在欧洲冠军联赛中。例如，在2021年的附加赛中，他们以巨大的劣势击败了强大的拜仁慕尼黑。作为一个失败者比作为一个大热门更适合他们的比赛——试图通过慢节奏的进攻和大量的传球来打破对手的防守。博彩公司似乎没有完全意识到这一点。